Cheaper by the Dozen

Clayton Williams Energy (NYSE: CWEI) traded below $7 per share in March. Today the stock is above $146, above the prior all-time high set almost three years ago when crude fetched $104 a barrel.

That’s after garnering a 34% takeover premium in a $3.2 billion deal for its prime acreage in the Permian basin. Despite the hefty price in cash and equity, shares of its acquirer, Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL), were up on the news.

And the Clayton Williams windfall wasn’t even the biggest Permian deal of the day. That distinction went to ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), which agreed to shell out $6.6 billion, mostly in stock, for private assets that will double its leasehold in the basin.

I bring all of this up only to suggest that we’re no longer promisingly early in the traditional greed/fear investing cycle.

That doesn’t mean that you can’t own a shale driller with good acreage and the financial flexibility to exploit it. In fact, it’s probably wise to hold several such up your sleeve for when oil trades back above $65 a barrel.

Just realize the good ones aren’t cheap and the cheap ones by and large aren’t that good. We’ve certainly looked elsewhere to compile the core of our new Best Buys list.

Like last year’s version, this one favors the midstream operators and other energy services providers better insulated from cost inflation. Rising oilfield costs will soon take a bite out of drillers’ profit margins as activity across the U.S. shale basins ramps up. For the midstream sector, energy prices ultimately matter less than energy production volumes. Last year, midstream equities lagged the broad energy rally. Early in 2017 they’ve started to catch up right out of the gate in numbers and on volume, a good omen for the year ahead.

If a lot of this slate looks familiar it’s because nothing changed over the holidays to change our belief that midstream partnerships like Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) and Enterprise Product Partners (NYSE: EPD), along with undervalued gas producers like EQT (NYSE: EQT), offer the best tradeoffs between risk and reward for the next 12 months and beyond.

But you will find some new names below as well as we seek to capitalize to the recent acceleration of shale drilling and the potential for regulatory changes under President Trump.

The 2017 Best Buys

1. Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)

We’re sticking with the controversy magnet that returned nearly 50% last year at the top of our ticket. The general partner of one of the largest MLP pipeline complexes faces challenges, including the increasingly costly pipeline permitting delays, market conditions still unfavorable to its liquefied natural gas export project and increased cost of capital at the affiliated partnerships.

But the cost of capital issue can be solved via a merger or a sale of incentive distribution rights, and the CEO has said that some such restructuring is on the horizon. Federal permitting delays should abate under Trump. And the LNG project, while valuable as a call option, doesn’t account for much of ETE’s current value.

Strip away all the noise and ETE remains underpriced given the profits it generates from investments financed by the limited partners of its affiliates, as well as its leverage to shale drilling in the Permian, its home turf. For more on this MLP, see the recent update in Energy Strategist Weekly. Buy Growth pick ETE below $22.

2. EQT (NYSE: EQT)

Natural gas is up considerably from the 20-year lows of May but sentiment for gas producer equities remains depressed following a trying year for the industry.

The market fears an incipient rebound in oil shale drilling will boost the supply of associated gas even as Marcellus drillers ramp up activity. The flip side of the coin is that gas prices are just coming off the worst year in 20, causing the first annual production drop in a decade. Demand from power generators, exporters and the chemical industry continues to rise, and that growth should accelerate over the next several years.

EQT is not a sexy pick, but it’s a methodical developer of one of the most lucrative fossil fuel deposits in the world within its patch of the Marcellus, and its strong balance sheet gives it the luxury of taking the long view. It’s also been looked to of late as one of the industry’s potential consolidators.

The share price has now given back more than half of the impressive rally during the first half of 2016 to qualify once again as one of the domestic oil and gas industry’s biggest bargains. The market has been much nicer of late in valuing EQT’s stake in an affiliated and fast-growing midstream partnership. The strategically important pipeline operations give EQT investors another way to win. And we expect to see much higher natural gas prices we expect over the next few years. See last month’s portfolio update for more on this company. Buy Growth pick EQT below $80.

3. CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX)

CONSOL has the potential to follow in the footsteps of its neighbor EQT in exploiting similarly attractive gas deposits, though it’s not nearly as far along. The longtime coal miner is still looking to spin off its legacy mining operations and interests in an affiliated coal MLP. Management shares EQT’s focus on shareholder value and should be able to move the needle more from a smaller base even as it continues to spend within cash flow. The stock has been basing in a broad range for the last six months but retains enormous upside to higher natural gas prices and to the likely divestment of the coal mines in the next year or two. We wrote about CONSOL in last month’s portfolio update.  Buy Aggressive pick CNX below $23.

4. USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC)

Oil and gas producers don’t need nearly as many rigs as they once did after dramatically improving their drilling efficiency in recent years. But they still need the compression horsepower to push gas through the pipelines leading to processing plants. That makes compressor contractors among the likeliest and biggest beneficiaries of the output gains certain to follow the recent shale drilling upturn.

USAC is focused on the high-growth Delaware, Midcontinent and Appalachian basins and  on the larger compressors for midstream applications. Despite nearly tripling in price since February’s lows the MLP units still yield an annualized 11%. And while future distributions at this level are far from guaranteed, the partnership has gotten through the worst of the downturn without a cut, even as its main rival cut its own payout. The unit price has already recovered from a secondary offering last month to trade near a 16-month high. I profiled USAC when we first recommended it in October. Buy Growth pick USAC below $22.

5. CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI)

The holding company majority-owned by Carl Icahn controls refining and fertilizer MLPs.  The refining business is by far the more important one, and should benefit from the likely overhaul of the system for administering ethanol quotas under Trump, who relies on longtime friend Icahn as a key advisor. Despite sky-high compliance costs and modest refining margins over the past year CVI still generated sufficient cash flow to full cover its current 8.7% annualized yield. The share price has nearly doubled since Election Day but remains down more than 50% since late 2015. We profiled CVR Energy three weeks ago at the time of the initial recommendation. Buy Aggressive pick CVI below $30.

6. Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)

The largest and by far the best global oil services provider, Schlumberger is poised to capitalize on higher energy prices and stepped up North American drilling. It made steep cost cuts during the downturn, so the increased revenue from higher service rates and new customers should flow straight to the bottom line. The balance sheet is strong and margins healthy enough to have delivered free cash flow even at the trough of the recent slump.  Buy Growth pick SLB below $95.

7. Williams (NYSE: WMB)

The midstream, gas pipeline operator got dinged recently in the stock market for cashing out its incentive distribution rights in the affiliated MLP for a price deemed too low. But that markdown is likely to prove temporary while the restructuring launched in the second half of last year, including ongoing non-core asset sales, should deliver lasting benefits. With the IDR drag on its MLP out of the way Williams has a clearer path to financing lucrative offshoots from its strategically valuable East Coast gas distribution trunk line. And Enterprise Products Partners remains a potential suitor, at the right price. We wrote about Williams last month.  Buy Growth pick WMB below $34.

8. Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP)

The least leveraged of the major midstream master limited partnerships, Magellan relies on the steady cash flow from its leading fuel pipeline network and the revived growth potential of its Texas crude pipelines now that U.S. drilling is ramping up again. The distribution currently yields an annualized 4.5% and is expected to increase at least 8% this year. The unit price rallied 16% between Nov. 11 and the end of the year. We wrote about Magellan and is latest earnings results last month. Buy Conservative pick MMP below $80. 

9. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

The largest MLP is the unquestioned king of midstream infrastructure in Texas, the focal point for the current shale oil resurgence and a major destination for shale gas liquids from the Marcellus for further processing and export. After lagging the energy rally badly for most of last year the unit price perked up over the last two months, setting a five-month high in recent action. The annualized yield is at 5.9% on a distribution set to grow roughly 5% this year. I profiled Enterprise’s tough year and latest results last month. Buy Conservative pick EPD below $33.

10. EOG (NYSE: EOG)

The leading shale driller’s stock is up more than 70% from the lows hit just over a year ago. The share price is now all the way to where it stood in August of 2014, an amazing feat considering the oil price has been cut in  half over that span. A lot of the credit goes to EOG’s prolific acreage in the Permian Basin (where it recently doubled its footprint via an acquisition), the Eagle Ford and the Rockies. Big gains on well output and drilling productivity have helped, and the company now uses those advances to grow within cash flow. And while many drillers will soon feel the bite of cost inflation, EOG hopes to keep its costs this year flat and is probably large and self-sufficient enough to be given the benefit of the doubt. If oil prices make significant headway this year, look for these guys at the front of the large-cap pack. And if they drop EOG should prove more resilient than most. Buy Growth pick EOG below $120.

11. Foresight Energy (NYSE: FELP)

As noted when we first recommended this troubled coal MLP in late October, Foresight is barred by the terms of its refinancing agreement, reached after a great deal of brinksmanship last year, from restarting its deferred distributions until 2018. It will first have to meet an October deadline for refinancing a convertible issue that will otherwise heavily dilute the current unitholders. As also noted at the time, these are very solvable problems in the current environment and the equity retains tremendous upside if we’re not wrong on that score. But this recommendation and the next one also carry significantly more risk than most others, even within the Aggressive portfolio. Buy Aggressive pick FELP below $9.

12. Contura (OTC: CNTE)

While Foresight avoided bankruptcy, Contura has already gone through it in its former existence as Alpha Natural Resources, at the time the nation’s second-largest coal miner. After shedding the bulk of Alpha’s debt mountain but retaining its best assets Contura emerged from Chapter 11 last summer but still trades in nearly total anonymity over the counter, with no Wall Street coverage and limited liquidity. That’s why It’s one of the cheapest ways around to play the likelihood the coal’s cyclical rebound is far from over. Buy Aggressive pick CNTE below $85.

 

Stock Talk

Byron Redburn

Byron Redburn

Is there any company in any of the portfolios involved in manufacturing pipe (made in the USA) for the oil industry?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Sorry for the late reply. There is not at the moment, though we’ve recommended Tenaris (NYSE: TS) in the distant past. I wouldn’t rush into anything like that right now, though, especially after recent gains prompted by Trump’s comments. Those have likely already had much more of an effect on the share prices than they’re ever likely to on actual business prospects. Tenaris looks very overpriced to me right now.

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