End of the Road for Rinsanity

Here’s another plot line from “Fifty Shades of Shady,” the compendium of sadomasochistic tales about MLPs and their general partners.

Four years ago, when the CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI) offered investors a stake in its refining business, it promoted the decision to forego incentive distribution rights, the kind that let a general partner skim a growing share of its affiliate’s distributions as it grows.

CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) would pay a variable distribution dependent on the vagaries of the volatile refining sector, but at least the MLP’s limited partners would be better aligned with the interest of its sponsor, then and now majority owned by billionaire investor Carl Icahn.

Things went well at first but soon enough progressively less well. Still, by the time CVRR paid a quarterly distribution of $1.01 per unit in November of 2015, its unit price had climbed back above $20, albeit still shy of the IPO price of $25. We enjoyed a notional 24% return on our CVRR recommendation that year before ousting it from the portfolio that September.

But early last year refining margins collapsed again, even as the cost of RINs, the renewable identification number certificates documenting compliance with ethanol quotas, spiked. CVRR hasn’t paid out anything to its investors since. The reduced cash flow it generated was reserved for future turnaround (non-routine maintenance) and environmental compliance costs.

Meanwhile, CVI, which derives most of its cash from CVRR and a little from another affiliated MLP for nitrogen, has continued to pay a quarterly dividend of 50 cents a share. That’s good enough for a yield of 8.6% at the current share price, which is already up 80% since Election Day.

The reason it’s up so much is named Trump. Although President Trump’s administration can’t cancel the legally mandated ethanol quotas even if it wanted to, it can trim them at the margin and shift the burdens of regulatory compliance. It’s widely expected to do just that at the repeated urging of Icahn, Trump’s friend and now officially his advisor on deregulation.

RINs really are a Rube Goldberg contraption, requiring refiners to gather certificates documenting that 10% (and lately a bit more) of ethanol was blended into the gasoline they produced. But the blending is often performed by fuel shippers, wholesalers and marketers. And enterprising traders have discovered they can buy RINs from the latter for resale to refiners.

That’s turned into a disaster for smaller mid-continent refiners like CVR, already suffering from much lower crack spreads over the last year. Between mid-2015 and mid-2016, the expense of RINs burned through about two-thirds of CVR’s operating profit, and for many refiners RIN costs roughly doubled last year.

Enter Scott Pruitt, the Oklahoma attorney general picked by Trump to head the Environmental Protection Agency. Pruitt is a fully paid up member of Team Icahn when it comes to the latter’s demands that those who blend others’ gasoline should be the ones who have to show the necessary RINs.

The market expects as much; hence the recent rally in the price of CVI, CVRR and the equity of other independent refiners. But the market hasn’t fully priced in that scenario just yet, certainly not for its potential to more than double CVR Refining’s operating profit.

There should be additional upside here once Pruitt acts, and more perhaps if the EPA begins to trim its annual biofuel quotas.

Another factor worth considering is the decent likelihood that refining margins rise over the coming year in response to strong domestic and global fuel demand and rebounding U.S. crude output.

Even barring stronger crack spreads, the end of the RIN boondoggle should allow CVRR to pay distributions once again this year. Its units, now trading at less than half the IPO price, would almost rebound more if that came to pass.

But I expect CVI to benefit more since that’s where the decision-making power resides. And I’ll take a steady payout currently yielding nearly 9% that will hit Icahn directly in the pocketbook if it gets cut over a variable one he’s less directly invested in, and one he knows must be shared with the MLP’s limited partners. You should too. We’re adding CVI to the Aggressive Portfolio. Buy below $30.

 

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