A Tasty Baker’s Dozen

At first glance, the new Best Buys list looks a lot like the last one we published in August. In fact, 7 of the 13 were already Best Buys before today.

That shouldn’t be surprising given the strong performance we saw last year and our expectations for more of the same in 2017 as Texas shale drillers giddy up. The drilling rebound should extend the recovery in midstream margins and cash flow by shifting the focus of the competition from price cuts to completion dates once again. A further recovery in energy prices would be a nice bonus, but eve at current prices higher volumes will help a lot.

But the list also includes the four new buys recommended in this issue from distressed sectors like coal and refining that hit bottom last year. That’s an acknowledgment that the more mainstream names have already recovered a lot, forcing us to expand our search for upside.

And then there’s Williams (NYSE: WMB), whose appearance on the list owes a lot to the market’s negative response to the recently announced simplification. We think that reaction will soon seem wrong, but it does highlight the fact that even for the midstream giants sentiment isn’t particularly overheated yet the way it has become for Permian producers.

 

The 2017 Best Buys

 

1. Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)

We’re sticking with the controversy magnet that returned nearly 50% last year at the top of our ticket. The general partner of one of the largest MLP pipeline complexes faces challenges, including the increasingly costly pipeline permitting delays, market conditions still unfavorable to its liquefied natural gas export project and increased cost of capital at the affiliated partnerships.

But the cost of capital issue can be solved via a merger or a sale of incentive distribution rights, and the CEO has said that some such restructuring is on the horizon. Federal permitting delays should abate under Trump. And the LNG project, while valuable as a call option, doesn’t account for much of ETE’s current value.

Strip away all the noise and ETE remains underpriced given the profits it generates from investments financed by the limited partners of its affiliates, as well as its leverage to shale drilling in the Permian, its home turf. For more on this MLP, see the recent update in MLP Profits Weekly. Buy Growth pick ETE below $22.

2. Williams (NYSE: WMB)

The midstream, gas pipeline operator got dinged recently in the stock market for cashing out its incentive distribution rights in the affiliated MLP at a price deemed too low. But that markdown is likely to prove temporary while the restructuring launched in the second half of last year, including ongoing non-core asset sales, should deliver lasting benefits. With the IDR drag on its MLP out of the way Williams has a clearer path to financing lucrative offshoots from its strategically valuable East Coast gas distribution trunk line. And Enterprise Products Partners remains a potential suitor, at the right price. I wrote about Williams elsewhere in this issue.  Buy Growth pick WMB below $34.

3. EQT (NYSE: EQT)

Natural gas is up considerably from the 20-year lows of May but sentiment for gas producer equities remains depressed following a trying year for the industry.

The market fears the incipient rebound in oil shale drilling will boost the supply of associated gas even as Marcellus drillers ramp up activity. The flip side of the coin is that gas prices are just coming off the worst year in the last 20, causing the first annual production drop in a decade. Demand from power generators, exporters and the chemical industry continues to rise, and that growth should accelerate over the next several years.

EQT is not a sexy pick, but it’s a methodical developer of one of the most lucrative fossil fuel deposits in the world within its patch of the Marcellus, and its strong balance sheet gives it the luxury of taking the long view. It’s also been looked to of late as one of the industry’s potential consolidators.

The share price has now given back more than half of the impressive rally during the first half of 2016 to qualify once again as one of the domestic oil and gas industry’s biggest bargains. The market has been much nicer of late in valuing EQT’s stake in an affiliated and fast-growing midstream partnership. The strategically important pipeline operations give EQT investors another way to win. And we expect to see much higher natural gas prices over the next few years. See the story in last month’s issue for more on this company. Buy Aggressive pick EQT below $80.

4. CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX)

CONSOL has the potential to follow in the footsteps of its neighbor EQT in exploiting similarly attractive gas deposits, though it’s not nearly as far along. The longtime coal miner plans to divest legacy mining operations and interest in an affiliated coal MLP over a number of years. Management shares EQT’s focus on shareholder value and should be able to move the needle more from a smaller base even as it continues to spend within cash flow. The stock has been basing in a broad range for the last six months but retains enormous upside to higher natural gas prices and to shale development likely accelerated by the recent dissolution of a joint venture with another Marcellus producer. I wrote about CONSOL in this month’s New Buys.  Buy Aggressive pick CNX below $23.

5. USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC)

Oil and gas producers don’t need nearly as many rigs as they once did after dramatically improving their drilling efficiency in recent years. But they still need the compression horsepower to push gas through the pipelines leading to processing plants. That makes compressor contractors among the likeliest and biggest beneficiaries of the output gains certain to follow the recent shale drilling upturn.

USAC is focused on the high-growth Delaware, Midcontinent and Appalachian basins and  on the larger compressors for midstream applications. Despite nearly tripling in price since February’s lows the MLP units still yield an annualized 11%. And while future distributions at this level are far from guaranteed, the partnership has gotten through the worst of the downturn without a cut, even as its main rival lowered its payout. The unit price has already recovered from a secondary offering last month to trade near a 16-month high. I profiled USAC when we first recommended it in September. Buy Aggressive pick USAC below $22.

6. Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM)

The midstream arm of the well-hedged Marcellus gas producer Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) is early enough in its growth trajectory to supply industry-leading growth without having to worry about excessive leverage. Its distributions per unit are growing at nearly 30%, a rate it expects to maintain for the next several years. The lower ranking on this list acknowledges the big gains already under its belt, but the value proposition remains strong. For more, see the portfolio update  from last month’s issue. Buy Growth pick AM below $35.   

7. CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI)

The holding company majority-owned by Carl Icahn controls refining and fertilizer MLPs.  The refining business is by far the more important one, and should benefit from the likely overhaul of the system for administering ethanol quotas under Trump, who relies on longtime friend Icahn as a key advisor. The share price has nearly doubled since Election Day but remains down more than 50% since late 2015 and still provides a dividend yield above 8%. See this month’s New Buys profile for more. Buy Aggressive pick CVI below $30.

8. Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP)

The least leveraged of the major midstream master limited partnerships, Magellan relies on the steady cash flow from its leading fuel pipeline network and the revived growth potential of its Texas crude pipelines now that U.S. drilling is ramping up again. The distribution currently yields an annualized 4.5% and is expected to increase at least 8% this year. The unit price rallied 16% between Nov. 11 and the end of the year. I wrote about Magellan and its latest earnings results last month. Buy Conservative pick MMP below $80. 

9. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD)

The largest MLP is the unquestioned king of midstream infrastructure in Texas, the focal point for the current shale oil resurgence and a major destination for shale gas liquids from the Marcellus for further processing and export. After lagging the energy rally badly for most of last year the unit price perked up over the last two months, setting a five-month high in recent action. The annualized yield is at 5.9% on a distribution set to grow roughly 5% this year. I wrote about Enterprise’s tough year and latest results last month. Buy Conservative pick EPD below $33.

10. Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX)

The world’s leading alternative assets manager remains surprisingly cheap given its huge asset base and strong mid-teens returns on invested capital over a span of decades. Its variable distributions yielded 5.5% over the last year based on the current unit price and should remain robust as Blackstone deploys more of the cash it has already raised for its funds but not yet invested. See last month’s portfolio update for more. Buy Growth pick BX below $34.

11. CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX)

As with Antero Midstream, this is another instance of a successful and fast-growing Marcellus gathering partnership moving down the list in recognition of the strong gains over the last year. CONE continues to target annual distribution growth of 15% with strong coverage and minimal leverage. Capital spending will increase next year as co-sponsor CONSOL Energy steps up its drilling pace. CONE was among the recommendations covered in last month’s portfolio update. Buy growth pick CNNX below the increased limit of $27.

12. Foresight Energy (NYSE: FELP)

As noted in this month’s New Buys profile, this distressed coal MLP is barred by the terms of its debt restructuring agreement from resuming its deferred distributions until the second half of next year. And Foresight will first have to meet an October deadline for refinancing a convertible issue that will otherwise heavily dilute the current unitholders. These are very solvable problems in the current environment and the equity retains tremendous upside if we’re not wrong on that score. But this recommendation and the next one also carry significantly more risk than most others, even within the Aggressive portfolio. Buy Aggressive pick FELP below $9.

13. Contura (OTC: CNTE)

While Foresight avoided bankruptcy, Contura has already gone through it in its former iteration as Alpha Natural Resources, at the time the nation’s second-largest coal miner. After shedding the bulk of Alpha’s debt mountain but retaining its best assets Contura emerged from Chapter 11 last summer but still trades in nearly total anonymity over the counter, with no Wall Street coverage and limited liquidity. That’s why It’s one of the cheapest ways around to play the likelihood the coal’s cyclical rebound is far from over. See New Buys for more. Buy Aggressive pick CNTE below $85.

Stock Talk

Eric Ely

Eric Ely

I’m curious about the pressure in this sector, what’s causing it and do you expect things to improve ?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Clearly the primary drag has been from the low and oil and gas prices, Investors worry about what that means for midstream’s long-term prospects. I think U.S. midstream companies will do better than fine because shale’s not going to be put under by OPEC and is in fact crucial to satisfying global demand that continues to grow. But energy’s been mostly a terrible place to invest for coming up on three years soon and sentiment is understandably lousy. I don’t think that’s very encouraging for the next two months necessarily, but it makes me quite hopeful about the next two years.

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