Earnings Season Update

Telus Corp. (TSX: T, NYSE: TU) announced disappointing results for the fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings per share down 1.9% from a year ago. Meanwhile, the dividend was increased by 9.1%.

Sales rose 2.7% as both the wireless and wireline divisions generated higher revenue, while adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization) climbed 3.7%. However, we note a large one-time compensation item that was excluded from adjusted EBITDA.

The wireless division grew adjusted EBITDA by 4.0%, as subscribers increased by 1.5% compared to last year and also paid more on average for the use of their devices. Critically important, the average revenue per user was up 3.9%, while the number of more profitable post-paid users was also higher.

The secular trends in the wireline division continued, with landline connections declining while TV and Internet connections increased by 5.4% and 5.7%, respectively. EBITDA in this division grew 1.7%.

The balance sheet remains somewhat stretched, with another $700 million in net debt piled on during the year, bringing total net debt to C$12.7billion. The debt-to-capital ratio is an elevated 62%, but Telus intends to pare debt as the benefits from its spectrum acquisitions and infrastructure buildout come to fruition.

Telus continues with its fairly aggressive dividend program by targeting growth in the payout of 7% to 10% annually. We note that free cash flow fell short of covering the dividend during 2016, which means the company is effectively borrowing to finance its payout. Consequently, we suspect that dividend growth may have to be reined in soon, or that the share-repurchase program could be discontinued.

Management forecasts sales growth of 3% for full-year 2017, along with a rise in EBITDA of 4.5%. Earnings per share are expected to increase 5%, while dividend growth of 7% to 10% is being targeted.

With an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 7.7 times, the telecom giant’s valuation remains attractive in absolute terms despite the slowdown in earnings growth. Shares of Telus yield 4.4% on a forward basis, and we estimate the stock’s fair value at C$50, or US$38.

Thomson Reuters Corp. (TSX: TRI, NYSE: TRI) delivered what can only be described as “reasonable” fourth-quarter results, despite adjusted earnings per share increasing by 9%. The dividend per share announced for 2017 is 1.5% higher than last year.

On a consolidated basis, revenue was slightly lower, but adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization) increased by 5%.

It should be noted that the $212 million charge taken by the company for certain reorganization costs, including severance pay, mostly affected the Financial and Risk division. This ongoing rationalization of the business has resulted in a sharp reduction in the number of products, the closure of more than half of its global offices, and a 25% reduction in the workforce since 2012.

The largest division, Financial and Risk, continued its gradual improvement, with a 1% increase in EBITDA, though net sales of financial services products decreased for the first time in 11 quarters. One area of concern is the decline in profit recorded by the Legal and Tax and Accounting divisions.

The US$3.2 billion net proceeds from the disposal of the Intellectual Property and Science Division, which closed last October, was used to reduce debt, repurchase shares, and for business investment purposes.

During 2016, Thomson Reuters repurchased 41.9 million shares for $1.7 billion, representing about 5% of total shares outstanding. Since 2013, buybacks have reduced the total share count by 117 million shares, which is equivalent to 16% of current shares outstanding.

The balance sheet is reasonably levered, with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 30%. And cash flow remains sound, though free cash flow is expected to be lower in 2017 due to a $500 million pension fund contribution made in early 2017, restructuring charges, and the sale of the Science Division.

Management forecasts low-single-digit revenue growth for 2017 and slightly higher profit margins, while adjusted earnings per share are expected to grow 14%.

From a valuation standpoint, Reuters is trading in line with its international peers. Although fourth-quarter results were somewhat disappointing, we take comfort in the ongoing operational improvement, the strong balance sheet, the large reduction in share count, and an abundance of cash flow. Shares of Thomson Reuters yield 3.1%, and we estimate the stock’s fair value at C$54, or US$41.

In 2016, WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSX: WJA, OTC: WJAVF) achieved the second-highest profit in its 20-year history. Even so, results were down quite a bit from the company’s peak in 2015.

For the final quarter of 2016, earnings per share declined 7.8%, while the dividend was left unchanged.

Increased seat capacity, more passengers, and a higher load factor resulted in a 6% rise in revenue, while operating expenses were well contained. The company has effectively countered the weakness in its core domestic markets by adding more international and cross-border flights.

A big concern among investors is the continuing growth in airline capacity and the resulting competition and pressure on fares. During 2016, WestJet increased its available seat miles by 9%. While the load factor was slightly higher than the previous year, revenue per seat mile declined as lower fares reduced profitability.

Management says it plans to continue increasing capacity in 2017 by around 4%. For the first quarter of 2017, the company expects to see higher revenue, more traffic, and higher revenue per seat mile, which would be a welcome reversal from 2016.

Last year, WestJet took on more debt to finance a number of plane deliveries. This weighed on free cash flow, which was negative for the full year. Although higher debt and lower cash flow is not a concern as of yet, the company has to extract additional cash flow from increased capacity before we’ll see higher dividends. Hopefully, this will happen in 2017.

Based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times, WestJet’s valuation remains undemanding. Shares of WestJet yield 2.5%, and we estimate the stock’s fair value at C$26, or US$20.

Earnings Season Checklist

We’re now firmly in the midst of earnings season for the calendar fourth quarter. While we do not have any particular insights into what the quarter will offer, we’re reasonably comfortable that our Dividend Champions will either maintain or increase their dividends.

The table below lists the date for each company’s earnings release, as well as the expected dividend. Please note that some dates have yet to be confirmed and are, therefore, based on the timing of past reports. Rows that have been highlighted green indicate companies that have already reported results.

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