Swimming in LNG

Every commodity slump creates winners as well as losers. Consumers are the most obvious beneficiaries of the lower prices, along with those who distribute and dispense the cheap commodity in growing demand.

When gas prices plunged in 2014-15, gas stations prospered. Now the same logic is buoying the floating gas stations dispensing low-cost natural gas around the globe.

The Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) are converted liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers that can turn LNG back into a gas for overland shipment by pipeline. Unlike the larger land-based regasification plants they require only a mooring berth, not a large land parcel near a harbor. And they don’t need as much lead time, which is particularly attractive to the many new customers seeking to take advantage of the lower LNG prices.

The global LNG trade is expanding so fast that Shell recently estimated it will have grown 50%  between 2014 and 2020. The company expects the market to grow 4-5% annually through 2030.

Driving the growth are Asian giants China and India, along with several countries that have only recently begun importing LNG. In the last two years Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, Colombia, Poland and Jamaica have joined the party. Four of those six were key contributors to the LNG market’s growth last year. Of the 21 FSRUs in operation today, eight have come online since 2015.

I like the FSRU market better than the one for conventional LNG tankers, because contract terms are longer. the barriers to entry somewhat higher and demand for these floating gas stations is currently growing even faster than that for LNG.

Better still, two of the three major global players have set up high-yielding U.S. MLPs paying qualified dividends suitable for an IRA account.

Golar LNG Partners (NASDAQ: GMLP) is sponsored by Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG), the LNG shipper once controlled by Norwegian-born tycoon John Fredriksen but now owned primarily by a diverse group of U.S. institutional investors.

It owns seven FSRUs currently deployed in Brazil, Indonesia, Kuwait, Jordan and Ghana, as well as three LNG carriers along with a majority stake in a fourth.

A dividend kept level for the last two years currently offers an annualized yield of 9.8%. The distribution coverage ratio was 1.27x for the first nine months of 2016. Leverage was at a reasonable 3.4x on a net debt-to-EBITDA basis.

Although GMLP will need to re-contract one of its FSRUs by this summer and three LNG carriers by the end of the year, it will be doing so in the context of a booming LNG trade that has strengthened its negotiating hand.

Source: Golar LNG Partners

Hoegh LNG Partners
(NYSE: HMLP) is an offshoot of Oslo-listed Hoegh LNG. It’s the sole publicly listed FSRU pure-play, with two fully-owned platforms deployed in Indonesia and Egypt and half-stakes in two others subcontracted to France’s Engie. (One of the Engie FSRUs is currently in Turkey and the other is hauling LNG from Indonesia to China under a short-term tender from Beijing Gas Group.) None of HMLP’s charters expire before 2025 if you count its option to recontract the Egypt FSRU to its sponsor.

The dividend currently yields an annualized 8.3% with distribution coverage at 1.15x in the most recent quarter. Growth has been lumpy, with the payout last increased 22% at the end of 2015. HMLP plans to increase its dividend for the quarter ending in March by 4-5%. Debt leverage is in the vicinity of 3x debt/EBITDA.

Source: Hoegh LNG Partners

Both partnerships are slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 28. The shipping sector is notoriously volatile and FSRUs present political, credit and competition risks. For all that, these yields of 8-10% backed mostly by long-term contract revenue from relatively scarce assets look attractive.

We’re adding Golar LNG Partners and Hoegh LNG Partners to the Aggressive Portfolio. Buy GMLP below $27 and HMLP below $22.

 

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