Market volatility has risen in recent days. Day-to-day swings have been large. Today marks the first trading session since last Thursday that the S&P 500 did not move at least 98 basis points. Confusing messages from top Fed officials helped to throw markets for a loop.

Last Friday, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren sparked the worst day for the market since Brexit by commenting that waiting to raise interest rates may increase the risk of overheating the U.S. economy.

Previously a dependable dove, Rosengren’s apparent shift to the hawkish side is a big deal and spooked market participants. They fear that the Fed may press ahead with tightening monetary policy despite signs of economic weakness, thereby risking economic contraction.

But with market expectation shifted more toward the hawkish side, on Monday, Lael Brainard, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, gave a speech that conveyed the opposite sentiment.

Brainard expressed concern about undershooting inflation and favored policy that guarded against downside—in other words, err on the side of caution. She did not feel that the case for preemptively tightening policy is very compelling.

Her dovish comments helped stocks recover some of their Friday losses. However, the mutually contradictory messages from voting members of the FOMC don’t put the policymakers in a great light. There is no clear direction for monetary policy. A week before the next policy-setting meeting FOMC confab, there seems to be a significant divide between top Fed officials.

There’s little chance that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate next week, but based on Fed officials’ confusing statements, it’s anyone’s guess how quickly the Fed intends to tighten in the future. It appears the Fed doesn’t know either, which raises the disturbing question whether Janet Yellen and her lieutenants will be capable of responding decisively and correctly to a crisis should one arise.

In recent weeks, our indicators have decidedly turn more negative. This doesn’t mean that a major market correction is on its way—our indicators can only form predictions for near-term (think weeks) movements. However, we do see warning signs that, if our leaders aren’t careful, could lead to a crisis within two years.

Earlier today, we initiated two new trades. Our stock indicator and gold stock indicator both flash strong “-2” readings. The relative performance of small-cap stocks, a market trend that we closely monitor, has also become worse in recent days, which confirms our stock indicator’s negative signal.

We added to the portfolio the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) March 214 put option and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) March 26 put option. Both options will gain in price if the S&P 500 Index and gold stocks decline, as our indicator predict.

We also have a third option open: the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) January 24. This trade is currently in the red.

Our dollar indicator currently flashes a “+1” reading, making this trade a “hold.”

The option does not expire until January. A lot can change. However, if our dollar indicator signal deteriorates sufficiently, we will likely follow the indicator signal and exit the position, even at a loss.

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Besides the options, our other open positions are stocks. We currently have NovaGold (NG), Gabriel Resources (GBRRF), Schlumberger (SLB) and NovaCopper (NCQ).