A Look At How Our Picks Have Done So Far in 2017

The U.S. Labor Department today reported that in June the economy added 222,000 non-farm jobs, well above the 178,000 expected by economists. This is the best monthly showing since February and brings the first-half average to 180,000, about in line with the 2016 monthly average of 187,000.

The unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent from last month’s 4.3 percent reading, which is a 16-year low, but that may be a good thing. When unemployed people give up job hunting, they are no longer regarded as being in the labor pool, which can artificially lower the jobless rate for the wrong reason. This month, the labor participation rate ticked up to 62.8 percent, which suggests that some discouraged workers may have resumed job hunting—and are thus increasing the size of the labor pool in the employment rate calculation. On the other hand, young graduates are also entering the work force and the numbers over the next few months should reveal more color. Wage growth remains muted.

Overall, despite some month-to-month noise, the job figures continue to suggest that the economy remains on a tepid growth trajectory. The Fed raised the benchmark federal funds rate for the second time this year in June, and implies that it will raise the rate one more time in the second half. Additionally, it plans to begin to reduce its bloated balance sheet before year end, probably commencing in September or later. Today’s solid report likely doesn’t change Janet Yellen and company’s current plan.

Indeed, a few hours after the jobs report was released this morning, the Fed published its semiannual monetary policy report. The report confirms that the Fed will pursue a “gradual” increase in interest rates and wind down of its balance sheet. Overall, the tone was upbeat, as assessments of various parts of the economy were positive, pointing to continued growth at a “moderate” pace.

On the stock market, the Fed acknowledged that valuation pressures are rising, but doesn’t seem particularly alarmed as it was pleased gains in financial markets haven’t caused increased borrowing outside of the financial sector—i.e., increased risk of a debt bubble.

Quick Portfolio Review: With half of the 2017 behind us, this week we take a look at how our portfolio has done in 2017. Overall, we are quite pleased with how our picks have performed so far this year. Not counting BYD (OTCMKTS: BYDDF) and AAR Corp (NYSE: AIR), which joined our portfolio during 2017, our six current picks which have been with us for the full year—Franco Nevada (NYSE: FNV), Lindsay Corp (NYSE: LNN), Republic Services (NYSE: RSG), Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID), Theravance Biopharma (Nasdaq: TBPH), and USG Corp (NYSE: USG)—have on averaged returned 18.8 percent from the beginning of this year to the close of trading yesterday (July 6). The S&P 500 over the same period has returned 8.8 percent.

As for BYD and AIR’s performance since Brain Trust Profits. From June 23 through the end of trading yesterday, BYD was up 1.2 percent. For AIR, which joined the portfolio on February 22, through yesterday’s market close, it was up 3.3 percent.

What about the stocks we closed out this year? We calculated how they fared from the beginning of 2017 to the time we sold them from our portfolio. The returns are listed below.

Scripps Networks Interactive (Nasdaq: SNI), sold on January 10 at $74.97, +5.0 percent
Kindred Biosciences (Nasdaq: KIN), sold on February 22 at $5.95, +40.0 percent
Innoviva (Nasdaq: INVA), sold on May 15 at $11.68, +9.2 percent
First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG), sold on June 22 at $8.27, +8.4 percent

Unfortunately, in hindsight we just held onto AG too long and with silver prices still struggling to recover, the stock just performed poorly overall. We let our favoring of precious metals cloud our judgment. And following Seth Klarman into INVA and KIN did not work out. Previously, we had a 378 percent gainer by following him into another small biotech stock Idenix, which was acquired by Merck (NYSE: MRK) in 2014. The fourth close out, SNI, was a decent gainer for us at just short of 10 percent overall. As SNI is now trading at about $8 a share lower than our exit price, selling it when we did was the right decision.

Even with a few missteps here and there, overall our strategy of picking the brains of the best of the buy side has been a good one for us, and we will continue to monitor the moves of the brightest money managers Wall Street has to offer.

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account