Checking Out Our Two New Picks

Earlier this week, we added two new high-conviction picks from top money managers. We added ViaSat (Nasdaq: VSAT) from Baupost Group and ChannelAdvisor (NYSE: ECOM) from Shapiro Capital Management.

This is the second time we have recommended ViaSat. It was one of our very first recommendations in Brain Trust Profits. We had the stock in our portfolio from September 2012 to February 2015 and enjoyed a 59.6 percent gain. Since we sold the stock, it hasn’t done very much in two-and-a-half years due to high capital expenditures keeping earnings growth subdued for now, but we think that will change.

ViaSat has two high-capacity satellite systems in space and is the leading provider of satellite telecommunication services. It serves residential, commercial, and government customers. Its services range from residential broadband internet to in-flight Wi-Fi to classified work with the Department of Defense operates cyber security and national defense applications.

The company is working on a third, next-generation satellite system that it plans to launch in 2019. This third system will comprise of three geostationary satellites and have more capacity than the rest of the world combined and be capable of providing coverage to most of the globe. Each of the three satellites will have bandwidth of more than 1 terabit per second (many times even the fastest Internet connections). In particular, ViaSat targets the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region with this upcoming launch.

ViaSat is the quintessential speculation. If things go awry the stock could fall sharply, but if things go right you are likely looking at a many-fold gain. The company’s business model is a mirror of a middle-stage cable company, which is spending tremendous sums on capital to build out its network.

Traditional Wall Street metrics, such as EPS, have little meaning in the context of high depreciation, which subtracts from profits, but not cash flow. VSAT is in the process of establishing the best satellite broad-band communication system in the world. Measured in terms of bandwidth per capita the company is far ahead of any competitor with its second-generation satellite.

The company’s record to date suggests a bet on success is a very good one. The company’s partners are deep pocketed. The potential in both commercial and military applications is enormous. Over the next three years the most used measures of cash flow are likely to grow at a 40 percent rate–and that is just close to the beginning. Obviously, there are many risks, but the potential is startling.

Our second addition ChannelAdvisor is a leading provider of SaaS (software as a service) solutions—software licensed on a subscription basis and delivered through typically a standard web browser—that enables its customers to integrate, manage and optimize their merchandise sales across many online channels such as Amazon, eBay, Google, Facebook, Pinterest, and others. Through an integrated user interface, its customers can manage their product listings, inventory availability, pricing optimization, search terms, analytics and other functions across these channels. In 2016, ChannelAdvisors’ customers processed approximately gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $8.1 billion through the company’s cloud-based platform.

Getting goods to the market used to be rather straight-forward: from manufacturer, to distributor, to retailer, then the end consumer. Today, the path is much more complex. Whereas in the past consumers used to buy primarily from traditional retail stores, they now have multiple purchase points, including directly from brands and distributors. Brands are increasingly opting to go directly from production to selling to consumers, bypassing the middle men. The proliferation of the digital landscape has greatly expanded the points at which sellers can engage consumers, including social media networks (e.g. Facebook), third-party marketplaces (e.g. Amazon.com), search engines (e.g. Google), and companies’ own direct-to-consumer websites.

Ecommerce is a complex endeavor. A retailer or branded manufacturer has to manage product data and transactions across many disparate online channels, each with its own rules, requirements, and specifications, and it has to try to optimize marketing to produce the best results. Given the great number of options consumers have today, accessible at literally the click of a button, how to stand out is a key question. The proliferation of smart phones and tablets has added another layer of complexity, requiring sellers to build device-specific optimization and functionality into their sites.

It would be quite expensive for companies to develop ecommerce solutions in house, so they generally turn to vendors such as ChannelAdvisor to help them seamlessly establish an online presence and connect with online shoppers. In turn, ChannelAdvisor charges its customers subscription fees for the services. As of the latest quarter, about 75 percent of the revenues generated were fixed fees charged for a committed (minimum) level of GMV or advertising spending that are processed through its platform. And 25 percent were variable and based on a certain percentage of GMV or advertising spend processed through its platform that exceeds their specified minimum amount. In other words, the higher the variable fee, the more activity there was on ChannelAdvisor’s platform. During the second quarter, variable fees increased more than 20 percent year-over-year—11 percent if a one-time $600,000 revenue was excluded, still good.

ChannelAdvisor is still investing in the business and has yet to achieve consistent profitability, but the losses are significantly narrowing over time. The company was free-cash-flow positive for the first time last year. Lately, it has strategically shifted its focus toward acquiring larger customers that provide more value over the length of their contract. At the end of June, ChannelAdvisor had 160 customers who had committed revenues of at least $100,000, an increase of 13 from the first quarter.

The second quarter was also its best-ever quarter signing new brand names to its platform. This is reflected higher average revenue per customer, which grew 11 percent in the second quarter. The recent acquisition of HubLogix, a fulfillment and logistics platform that automates order management by connecting online storefronts and marketplaces to distribution and fulfillment centers also enables it to offer fulfillment automation, which can significantly improve efficiency and cut costs for customers. HubLogix also brings over some new potential customers, which creates cross-selling opportunity.

The stock price is down about 30 percent year to date. In February, ECOM had a one-day 24 percent plunge in reaction to weak 2017 guidance and the share price really hasn’t recovered since. The company itself admitted that it needed to implement its strategic shift toward larger customers faster. However, over the last two quarters, ChannelAdvisor has shown some signs that its strategic tweaks are gaining some traction. We believe investors on the sidelines are waiting to see ChannelAdvisor demonstrate more improvement before jumping in again, but if the company can maintain the momentum in the first two quarters of the year and re-accelerate revenue growth into the mid-teens or higher, buyers will return. After all, this was a $14 stock not long ago.

Our near-term suggested buy-up-to prices for VSAT and ECOM are $68 and $11.25, respectively. Note that these prices are not target prices. Rather, the suggested buy-up-to prices reflect what we think are good entry points in the present. We will continually adjust the prices over time as we see fit. We think both VSAT and ECOM can rally far beyond both of the initial suggested buy-up-to prices.

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