Portfolio Update: Our Holdings Pass Muster on Earnings

Reality checks are crucial with tech stocks. Rocket stocks can crash. A CEO might be a showboat who over-promises and under-delivers.

Operating results separate hype from reality. They cut through the noise. They provide clarity. And it’s clear from the latest results that our holdings are solid. They offer outsized gains, even in this overvalued broader market. In the BTP portfolio, our money goes where money grows. This quarter, our holdings are showing growth.

Let’s do the numbers. Examined are holdings that have reported to date.

  • Amphenol (NYSE: APH)

The fiber optic firm posted impressive fourth-quarter 2017 results. The firm beat on the top and bottom lines.

Earnings per share (EPS) came in at 86 cents, exceeding the estimate of 81 cents. EPS was 75 cents in the same quarter a year ago. Quarterly revenue came in at $1.9 billion, surpassing expectations of $1.7 billion. Revenue was $1.6 billion in the same year-ago period.

The company expects first-quarter 2018 revenues within the range of $1.7 billion-$1.8 billion. EPS for first-quarter 2018 is predicted to come within 78 cents-80 cents.

Cloud computing, mobile usage, and the Internet of Things should propel demand for Amphenol’s fiber optic products in 2018.

APH remains a buy up to $95.

  • Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP)

The oil rig operator reported earnings of $500 million, or EPS of $4.55, from operating revenues of $564 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2018.

That’s a rebound from the same year-ago quarter, when the company reported a net loss of $35 million on revenue of $369 million.

Helmerich & Payne is positioned to exploit the shale boom. Rising energy prices are a tailwind.

HP operates the largest fleet of “super-spec” drilling rigs in the U.S. These rigs give more power. They drill longer horizontal wells. They can be quickly relocated from well to well. These capabilities speed production.

HP remains a buy up to $80.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM)

TSM posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2017 results. The chipmaker forecast strong revenue in 2018.

TSM posted EPS of 64 cents in the fourth quarter, up 7% year over year. Sales came in at $9.21 billion, up 12%. Analysts expected EPS of 62 cents and revenue of $9.15 billion.

TSM forecast first quarter sales of $8.45 billion, exceeding analyst projections of $8.24 billion.

Bearish chip forecasts have weighed on TSM. The pessimism is overwrought. TSM retains its position as the top chip supplier for Apple’s (NSDQ: AAPL) iPhones and iPads. Artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining are growth drivers for TSM. These markets will explode in 2018.

TSM remains a buy up to $50.

  • Teradyne (NYSE: TER)

The test equipment maker reported fourth-quarter EPS of 46 cents, beating the consensus estimate by 12 cents. Earnings increased 44% year over year.

Revenue in the quarter came in at $479.4 million. That’s an increase of 26.2% year over year. Revenue exceeded the consensus estimate of $437.9 million. It exceeded management’s guided range of $420 million-$450 million.

Revenue came from growing sectors: 66% from semiconductor testing platforms, 11% from industrial automation, 17% from system testing, and 6% from wireless testing.

The firm’s acquisition of Universal Robots in 2015 continues to bear fruit. Universal Robots supplies “collaborative robots.” These are easily programmed robots. They’re low cost. They work side-by-side with workers. TER occupies the vanguard of robotics.

TER remains a buy up to $50.

  • Texas Instruments (NSDQ: TXN)

The chipmaker surprised on the downside. Investors got rattled. But not me.

Texas Instruments posted its slowest revenue growth in four quarters. The culprit: slowing demand for its chips used in communications equipment.

TXN’s revenue rose nearly 10% percent in the fourth quarter. But growth is forecast to slow to about 7% in the first quarter ending March. That’s the mid-point of management’s forecast. This growth compares unfavorably with growth of 12% to 13% each in the first three quarters of 2017.

TXN reported a 67% decline in earnings to $344 million in the fourth quarter. But that was due to tax-related expenses from new U.S. tax laws. Excluding the tax expense, TXN earned EPS of $1.09, in line with the consensus estimate.

Not a blow-out. But respectable.

Communications equipment demand is volatile. I expect this headwind to be temporary. There’s strong demand for chips used in automobiles. TXN will benefit as OEMs shift to self-driving cars. In the booming autonomous vehicle market, TXN occupies the sweet spot.

TXN has shot past its buy limit of $105. It remains a hold.

  • Western Digital (NSDQ: WDC)

Disk drive firm Western Digital reported EPS of $3.95 versus $3.79 expected by analysts. Revenue came in at $5.34 billion versus expectations of $5.3 billion. The company’s total revenue is up 9% year-over-year.

Western Digital said it had a net loss of $823 million, or $2.78 per share on a GAAP basis, compared with a profit of $235 million, or 80 cents per share, last year. But perspective is needed. The losses stemmed from a $1.6 billion charge related to new tax laws.

Despite WDC’s earnings beat, analysts expressed disappointment. Shares fell. That’s shortsighted. Demand should remain healthy for WDC’s hard drives and flash products.

Western Digital has settled its legal spat with Toshiba (OTC: TOSBF). The winner wasn’t Toshiba. WDC got what it wanted: access to Toshiba’s chip supply. These chips will be made by Toshiba’s advanced factories. Access is guaranteed. That’s a coup for WDC, worth billions far into the future. The tax charge means little.

WDC remains a buy up to $103.

I’ll examine earnings reports from other holdings, as they come in.

John Persinos is chief investment strategist of Breakthrough Tech Profits.

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