Market Update: 1/6/11

India’s food inflation has climbed to its highest point in more than a year, raising expectations of an interest hike this month. The food price index rose 18.3 percent year-on-year in the week ended Dec. 25, 2010, the fifth straight week of rising prices. Onion prices rose over 23 percent in the same time period. Analysts told Reuters that Indian fiscal authorities could raise interest rates by 50 basis points in its January 25, 2011, review in an effort to tame inflation. Although high prices for staple foods such as onions and tomatoes were driven in part by unseasonal rains, poor infrastructure and low agricultural productivity were cited as contributing factors to the rise in food prices. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn told Dow Jones Newswires that food inflation is “worriedly high” and an economist with the bank said an interest rate hike “cannot be ruled out” in January.

China has targeted a 20 percent expansion of its oil refining capacity in 2015 in order to meet growing domestic demand. China will add about 100 million metric tons of capacity each year, equivalent to approximately 2 million barrels per day, in a bid to boost total capacity to 600 million tons by 2015, state media reported, citing comments from the head of the National Energy Administration. Domestic crude output will hold steady at about 200 million tons over five years.

China has met a five-year energy efficiency target, despite increased energy use arising from the country’s economic stimulus project, according to AP. Zhang Ping, chairman of the powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product fell by 20 percent from 2005 levels as of end-2010. Detailed data has yet to be released by the NDRC.

Indonesian non-oil exports will likely grow by 15 percent in 2011, down from growth of 30 percent the previous year, the Jakarta Post reported. The country’s trade minister said that exports would top USD164 billion in 2011 compared to USD127 billion in 2010. Growth would be driven by higher prices for principal export commodities such as textiles, footwear, paper and processed cocoa products. The US, Japan, China, Singapore and Malaysia are expected to account for 43 to 47 percent of the country’s export revenue.

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