Buy the Farm

One of the best ways to play global growth in food demand is to buy into a food producer, but there are surprisingly few available to US investors that mainly conduct business in emerging markets.

While I am generally negative on Argentina thanks to increasing government intervention in the country’s markets, I do see upside opportunity for Cresud (NSDQ: CRESY), given its growing sales in South America and Asia.

Cresud grows and markets soybeans (199,559 tons produced last year), corn (250,435 tons), wheat (18.269 tons), sunflower (14,503 tons), sugar cane (576.048 tons) and other crops (123,435 tons). It also raises both beef and dairy cattle and is a major South American milk producer. Owning more than 1.1 million acres of farmland, the company is also a major real estate concern.

Shares are currently trading at the low end of their long-term valuation range after operating income fell by 10 percent in 2012. That was mainly due to the severe drought in the region last spring, which pushed up operating costs in the company’s Cattle segment because of higher feed prices. Cattle prices also fell as many smaller farmers were forced by higher feed prices to cull their herds early, creating a glut of beef on the global market.

Despite those headwinds the company’s overall production posted strong growth, as crop production grew by more than 153 percent compared to the previous fiscal year and beef cattle production grew by 75.9 percent. Milk production also posted moderate growth.

Thanks to that steady production growth, all of this year’s drought-related losses should be more than made up for next year as a result of higher beef and grain prices.

Despite being headquartered in Argentina, most of the company’s farmland is actually located in Brazil, which historically has maintained favorable farm regulations that are out of the grasp of the Argentine government. That farmland is extremely attractive because at the company’s current valuation, investors are basically buying the land at a discount while paying nothing for its ongoing operations. As a result, the company is an excellent hedge against an uptick in inflation.

The company also carries relatively little debt, currently trading at a debt-to-book value ratio of just 33.9 percent. The biggest drawback is that about 80 percent of the company’s debt is denominated in US dollars, which exposes the company to fluctuations in exchange rates because it operates in pesos. While I don’t look for a substantial depreciation of the dollar, I do see the greenback’s impact on the company lessening as the global economy stabilizes.

I’m also encouraged by the fact that Cresud sells most of its production to emerging markets with the primary exception being its soybean crop, most of which is sold to Japanese concerns. As a result, Cresud has a very stable source of demand for its production.

The company is also extremely shareholder friendly, returning about a third of its cash flow to investors every year through its annual dividend. Typically paid in November, this year it should amount to about 27 cents per share for a yield of about 3.5 percent. Buy Cresud up to 8.75.

When it comes to agricultural equipment, the best play is Japan-based Kubota (NYSE: KUB). The company manufactures and sells all manner of farm equipment including irrigation systems, tractors, combine harvesters and tillers.

While North American powerhouse Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) has sold off sharply after warning that its 2012 profits and growth would be adversely impacted by global economic weakness, Kubota has hung tough and is performing in line with expectations, largely thanks to its regional sales profile. While almost half of all its revenue is generated within Japan, less than 9 percent of its sales are typically made in Europe, a major market for Caterpillar.

The company’s sales have also remained strong in North America where its products generally enjoy a price advantage over its competitors. It has a production facility scheduled to open in January, bringing its US facility count to 3.

Kubota is also making inroads into the Chinese agricultural equipment market and is seeing growing sales of its light construction equipment in the country. The Chinese market has performed so well for Kubota that it opened a production facility in the country this past August.

An extremely efficient operator, Kubota has managed to grow earnings by an average 9 percent annually over the past three years even as revenue has contracted marginally. It also maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.3. It also holds a cash balance of close to JPY 100 billion on its balance sheet.

Given the company’s cost advantages and broad manufacturing footprint (it has facilities in the US, Europe, Saudi Arabia and throughout Asia) it is well positioned to push into a number of emerging markets. While it doesn’t break out emerging market sales in its reports, Kubota’s executives have said the company is experiencing incremental but accelerating sales growth in both Africa and South America. Buy Kubota up to 56.

 

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