QE or not QE?

Given the persistently high unemployment dogging the US economy, it’s clear that this is the weakest post-recession recovery since the Great Depression. Gold is at an all-time high, while the prices of most commodities are strengthening. The yen has reached a new 15-year high, and the currencies of resource-rich countries continue to climb in value. All suggest that the market doesn’t expect the US recovery to gain much steam anytime soon.

The Federal Reserve wants to stimulate job creation and a bump in inflation. President Obama hopes to boost US exports while other exporting countries are racing to devalue their currencies. These economic tea leaves suggest that QE II, or a second round of quantitative easing–essentially printing money–is a fait accompli.

A second round of quantitative easing is likely to be counterproductive. But let’s set aside the question of whether QE II is sound policy and examine how investors can profit from such a move.

In general, equities should benefit from another round of quantitative easing, especially companies with sound balance sheets. That’s because bonds will be less attractive to investors as the Fed takes aggressive action to stimulate inflation.

Gold would be one beneficiary. Speculation about the Fed’s monetary policies has been the driving force behind the huge surge in SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) this year.

Most analysts attribute gold’s rapid rise to the weak performance of the dollar, which, after a rapid rise in the first half of 2010, has settled back to levels seen at the start of the year.

In years past I would have agreed with that assessment; gold prices historically have shown a strong inverse correlation to movements in the dollar. One would rise as the other would fall.

But in early 2009 gold decoupled from the dollar. While the upward trajectory of gold prices slowed as the dollar strengthened, gold nevertheless continued its upward march.

In fact, the movement of gold prices appears to bear little relationship to the performance of the world’s major currencies.

The continuing upsurge in the value of gold and the total breakdown of its relationship with the US dollar demonstrates a lack of confidence in the fiscal health of global governments, particularly Uncle Sam. Consequently, there’s likely more upside in gold.

Although many remain leery about taking part in mortgage finance-related investments, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will perform well as a result of QE II. Fed purchases of MBS would serve the dual purpose of holding mortgage rates down while adding liquidity to the market, making them an important component of any easing program. iShares Lehman MBS Bond Fund (NYSE: MBB) appears quite attractive, offering exposure to MBS while also yielding about 3.6 percent.

We may not always agree with the government’s policies, there’s no reason we can’t ride its coattails.

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