Apocalypse Averted

Fear and disgust gave way to relief in early January, as Congress passed compromise legislation that ultimately raises taxes on just a small fraction of Americans—those with incomes in the top 0.7 percent.

Of course, the biggest concern for most investors was what would happen to taxes on dividends and long-term capital gains. The short answer is not much.

Many pundits had predicted a mass exodus out of income stocks if dividends were taxed at higher rates. I’ve long disagreed with this view, arguing many times on these pages that such an exodus is highly unlikely, regardless of what Congress does. That’s because an aging population needs to invest for income and has nowhere else to turn due to historically low interest rates. Thankfully, neither of these two views will be put to the test, since the status quo prevailed. Here’s a closer look:

Investment taxes. Most of us will continue paying a 15 percent tax on dividends and long-term capital gains. And lower-income investors in the 15 percent tax bracket won’t be taxed at all on these types of investment income.

Still, not everyone got out unscathed. Americans earning more than $400,000 annually ($450,000 for households) will see a pretty big difference. Their rate on dividends and long-term capital gains will rise to 20 percent. In addition, an extra 3.8 percent tax on investment income will be levied on all those earning more than $200,000 annually ($250,000 for households). The 23.8 percent total investment-tax rate for those in the top brackets is a big jump. But it could have been a lot worse—39.6 percent, to match the new highest personal tax rate.

Personal tax rates. Most of us were spared an increase in personal income tax rates, since part of the bargain was to hold most such rates at 2012 levels. However, top earners will take a hit here too, as those making more than $400,000 ($450,000 for households) will see their highest income tax rate jump to 39.6 percent, from 35 percent.

Some Americans might even see a small tax decrease, thanks to expansion of the earned income and child tax credits. And the credit for college tuition expenses (up to $2,500 annually) has been extended for five years.

Payroll taxes. The one major tax increase that will affect virtually all working Americans: The payroll withholding tax for Social Security will revert back to 6.2 percent (an increase from the current 4.2 percent), as the tax cut passed back in 2010 expires. Employees making $50,000 a year, for example, will pay $1,000 more to Social Security.

The above are just some of the highlights of the new legislation. Many other issues were dealt with, including estate taxes (again, not nearly as bad as expected), the alternative minimum tax and unemployment insurance. The basic gist, though, is that most of us will see our taxes rise a bit in 2013. That’s a pain, but it’s by no means the apocalyptic scenario many had predicted.

Granted, we’re not out of the woods yet. The recent agreement merely covered revenue. Congress must circle back in March to address the debt ceiling–the US government’s borrowing limit–as well as deficit reduction. As far as spending goes, the last-minute 2012 deal was just a stopgap measure; it delayed mandatory cuts for a couple of months. So there’s probably more volatility ahead, thanks to uncertainty over looming budget cuts.

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