The catalyst for the next upturn in global stock and commodity markets will be a realization that the US has exited the recession and the Chinese economy is reaccelerating again. I am looking for the rally to resume in the final months of the year. Read More

As commodity markets stabilize, the groups most leverage to this recovery tend to be services and contract drillers. I've written extensively about services companies in the past few issues of The Energy Strategist. In this issue, we'll take a closer look at one of the most widely watched--and poorly understood--sectors of all, the contract drillers. Read More

Oil's rally was a major topic in the financial media on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a long list of pundits have attempted to explain the recent rally in crude prices. Many analysts asserted that oil's run-up has little to do with fundamentals of supply and demand, citing murky arguments related to the weaker US dollar and speculative fervor. But fundamementals are still at the heart of oil's recent move. Read More

Because of constrained supply and reviving demand, the energy patch looks to be in the early stages of a major advance. Gains to date have been impressive, and I’m wary of the potential for a 5 to 10 percent correction at some point before fall. But such a pullback would be a buying opportunity. Valuations remain under control and, if history is any guide, there’s a lot more upside to come. Read More

If history’s any guide, we should see some impressive gains in energy-related stocks over the next 12 to 18 months. The turn in this cycle is predicated on two basic facts: Global demand is stabilizing, and global production declines are accelerating. Read More

Understanding the broad roadmap for energy prices is important, but making real money investing in the group requires delving into the specifics of each commodity market, identifying the best-placed sub-sectors going forward. Here’s a detailed rundown of my oil and natural gas price forecasts and the prospects for four key energy sub-sectors and how to play each group. Read More

As always, one of the most enjoyable and useful aspects of the show from my perspective has been the question and answer (Q&A) sessions that follow each of my presentations and panels. These questions give me a window into what investor sentiment is toward energy and various sub-sectors. Read More

In the first stages of every bull market, underlying fundamentals look negative. The market is a forward-looking mechanism, always searching for hints of change in the air and signs of improvement, not watching current conditions. The market will typically lead the fundamentals by several months. This is exactly what’s happening right now in the energy patch. Read More

The US economy is still shrinking, and the recession that began in December 2007 continues. Nevertheless, there’s been an important change for the better in recent weeks as the economy is no longer shrinking at as fast a pace. Read More

There are glimmers of light at the end of the proverbial tunnel; some markets appear to be stabilizing. This is broadly consistent with my view of the global economy. The US economy is still shrinking, but the rate of decline has stabilized, and the recession should end by the latter half of 2009 or early 2010. Meanwhile, growth in select emerging markets appears to have reaccelerated. Read More

The most striking thing about Dr. Chu’s comments was just how little he mentioned oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear power. The secretary highlighted the fact that Americans are heavily dependant on oil imports, and how expensive those imports are. He also showed an interesting chart that highlighted the correlation between US recessions and spikes in the price of oil. Read More

Weak oil and natural gas prices have resulted in a global downtick in drilling activity. But with signs pointing to a rebound in commodity prices in coming months, the tide will begin to turn. Even better, some stocks are focused on market niches that continue to show resilience amid a broader pullback in activity. Read More

Despite the steady drumbeat of bad news on the economy and oil and natural gas demand, I’m turning more bullish on energy commodities and related stocks. In fact, I’m more bullish on the sector now than I’ve been since last summer. Read More

Although the signs are still tentative, I’m seeing growing evidence of a turn in oil, natural gas and related stocks. The main catalyst: Accelerating declines in production are overtaking the pace of decline in demand. Meanwhile, there are signs of stabilization in energy demand, particularly in the developing world. Read More

The refinery, located roughly 25 miles outside San Francisco, covers nearly 3,000 acres. In fact, Richmond is the largest refinery in the San Francisco Bay Area, with total throughput capacity of 240,000 barrels of oil per day and is Chevron’s third-largest wholly owned facility. It’s also among the oldest in the country--it opened more than a century ago, in 1902. Read More

Selling in the broader markets picked up steam as President Obama announced his preliminary budget proposal. Let's take a look at the outlook for oil and gas prices, the potential impacts of the Obama budget proposal, and how to profit amid this extreme bout of stock market volatility. Read More

Neither ultra-low interest rates nor the fastest growth in money supply in a generation form the basis for a durable economic recovery. We absolutely need to see strength coming from other corners of the economy. Read More

With passage of the USD787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, Washington, DC has supplanted New York City as the nation’s key financial center. The latest news on the economic stimulus package and the Treasury Dept’s financial stabilization plan has been the most important driver for the stock market so far this year. With regard to energy-focused investments, there are two areas of potential impact: the economy as a whole and companies that will benefit from the direct flow of money into energy-related research and development. Read More

My suggestion for playing the current energy market is to focus on four key themes: income-producing securities, integrated oils, high-quality, gas-focused exploration and production firms; and beaten down value names in the oil services space. Read More

We’ve covered the nuclear industry in the past in The Energy Strategist and made some gains in nuclear-oriented stocks back during the big bull market in the group in 2006 and 2007. Fortunately, we recommended taking some profits ahead of the massive decline in the group in late 2007. The sector is depressed, and some old TES favorites are back on the bargain rack, even as uranium prices tick higher again. It’s high time we revisit the theme. Read More