Stock Talk – February, 2017

Stock Talk

Donald Shaw

Donald Shaw

Hello Igor

What is wrong with the idea of selling ETP and buying SUN to maintain high yield? ETP is currently paying 11/04% (at $38.25) but that drops when merger with SXL is completed. SUN is paying 11.39% at 2/2 close of $29.
Your wonderful advice and due diligence is always appreciated.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

They’re very different businesses, but since ETP will obviously soon be exchanged for SXL units currently yielding 7.8%, the yield differential will only get larger as a result. But there’s more to investing in any of these things than the yield, and with SUN you get 100% exposure to retail fuel marketing, which is a very different business from the crude and gas gathering, processing and shipping handled by ETP/SXL. The high yield on SUN reflects its high leverage and also knowledge that fuel marketing margins get hit when crude and fuel prices go up, as they’re likely to over the medium term. SUN is additionally exposed through the many gas station convenience stores it owns; these saw sales improve dramatically when gas got cheap but are liable to suffer should gas prices rise significantly. Maybe the yield overestimates these risks, but I’ve learned the hard way not to be early in these things. Let’s check back when regular unleaded is at $3.50/gallon again.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
what do you make of the ETE news today??
“Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE) – files to offer up to $1 billion of common units representing limited partner interests of Energy Transfer Equity L.P (ETE”

Guest

Guest

This was filed a couple days ago.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Just repeating my answer to Pipeline above: There have been two separate shelf registrations filed: one for sales of up to $1 billion in equity by the partnership in what appears to be a new at-the-market program, and another for future sales of 32.2 million common units by selling shareholders, i.e. founder and CEO Kelcy Warren. We may hear more about the ATM registration after ETE reports next week, but this is kind of standard financing MLPs used to take advantage of when times were good. Warren doesn’t appear to have sold anything yet, but coincidentally he bought 32.2 million units in December 2015 at about $16 per unit.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

There have been two separate shelf registrations filed: one for sales of up to $1 billion in equity by the partnership in what appears to be a new at-the-market program, and another for future sales of 32.2 million common units by selling shareholders, i.e. founder and CEO Kelcy Warren. We may hear more about the ATM registration after ETE reports next week, but this is kind of standard financing MLPs used to take advantage of when times were good. Warren doesn’t appear to have sold anything yet, but coincidentally he bought 32.2 million units in December 2015 at about $16 per unit.

RDW

Robert Whitman

I assume that the distribution coverage (e.g. 1.2X) some analysts give out is the distributable cash divided by distributions. If this is correct, can I find distributable in the financial statement.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Yes, that’s correct, although distributable cash flow is a non-GAAP measure so you’ll generally find it in the earnings release or deck but rarely in a quarterly SEC filing. In the release, I’d start looking from the bottom up. And of course please be aware that there are games an MLP can play in defining distributable cash flow that require one to look at a lot of fine print before accepting the proffered distribution ratio as representative.

StanZ

StanZ

I’m sticking with you Igor on your recommendation regarding ETE. I have confidence in your selection as your #1 best selection. I have done well over the years with MLP publications.
Thank You,
Stan Zalewski

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Thanks for your trust and this note, Stan — very much appreciate it.

Guest

Guest

CVI looks like the biggest no brainer in some time, especially since Pruitt has been affirmed. As far as upside I’d think this is a $40 stock all day long if/once the RIN situation is taken care of.

Big ETE holder but feel CVI could be a little higher on the list, like maybe 1a.

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

It has had a pretty nice run up since the election, but I do think that market is seriously underestimating the changes to the RIN system. It should help the refiners, but the ethanol stocks are trading as if everything is just fine.

Guest

Guest

How we doing on the issue this month?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

We got it out, thanks for your patience. And as noted in the intro we’ll be going to a much more fluid delivery schedule soon so that you don’t have to wait a month to see everything.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
As you know weekly oil Rig count continues to move upward , and OPEC is accommodating by lowering production helping our midstream MLPs.
If OPEC eliminates quotas I assume we could see the return of $35-$40 oil and thus oil dependent midstream MLPs would again be negatively impacted.
I don’t think OPEC members can live with $40 oil, so I am betting we will not see oil going down this low again what is your take?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

My take is that OPEC is going to cheat and shale is going to pump and it won’t matter as much as some may currently fear, because in the short term the general drift of global inventories is lower, while industrial indicators across Europe and Asia are way up, which should translate into strong energy demand. Longer-term, outside of OPEC and shale a lot of investment in future output has been skipped in recent years, by the supermajors as well as state-owned oil companies, an that’s going to matter more than the current shale uptick over the longer term. So I’m not all that worried about heading back to $35-40 oil, if only because the Saudis still can’t afford it, and can afford to lose that much face even less. Not saying we’re going to run away to the upside on the price, but worth noting too that oil went up relentlessly in the 2006-8 frame despite mounting inventories.

Dave

Dave

What are your thoughts with TERP? The February 21st deadline for exclusive negotiations with Brookfield for a purchase came and went with no deal and the stock is dropping. Do we hold and hope?

Guest

Guest

It got extended. Do a search on Seeking Alpha. There are quite a bit of posters with intimate knowledge of their situation if you read the comment sections.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

As Guest indicated below, the exclusive negotiating period got extended last week until March 6, which is the coming Monday. I take this as a hopeful sign and continue to view prior Brookfield offers in the $12 range as a floor in any deal. Also encouragingly, the company filed its Q3 10-Q last week, though it delayed the annual 10K. I would urge you to stay the course with TERP and to read last week;s conference call transcript: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-terp-earnings-conference-060054484.html

Guest

Guest

So what did you guys think of the ETE CC? Looks like good ol Kelcy is getting the itch for more M&A which will preclude them rolling up ETP in the near future it would seem. At least he stated they aren’t interested in any deals with hostile management.

I thought CC was fine. Didn’t excite me or scare me off personally. I think I’ll feel a lot better once DAPL is actually full of oil which I think will even be earlier than they alluded to. I wouldn’t be surprised if this thing is up and running the week of March 6th.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

My view is close to yours, definitely looking for M&A; perhaps NSH/NS would be a fit. Cash and debt looked pretty good to me given all the new income streams coming online this year, and M&A is how IDRs grow beyond the expiration of the current waivers. Doesn’t sound like there’s been much progress on LNG and SUN remains a drag; but those are the only negatives I saw.

Mark Drum

Mark Drum

Hi Igor
What impact do you think the projected Fed interest rate increases will have Midstream MLP evaluations during 2017. I am especially interested in your thoughts on those MLP with high debt/EBITDA ratios as well as those MLPs with major 2017/2018 projects that will require new significant new debt to complete.
Who do think has the least exposure /vulnerability to 3 or 4 2017 rate increases.
Thanks so much for helping us figure all this out.
Mark

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I don’t see much rate risk from the Fed this year for MLPs just given how tight spreads have grown again, Fed’s two or three hikes this year are priced in but credit markets remain extremely easy, and improved energy fundamentals suggest no shortage of bids for energy credits. Of the names in the portfolios the compression contractors APLP and USAC are probably the most leveraged at nearly 5x, along with KMI and WMB. But again this is not a big deal unless something changes at the macro level or in the market’s risk appetite (big caveats, I know.)

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