Stock Talk – December, 2016

Stock Talk

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
generally when oil goes up my pipeline mlp’s go up
this certainly didn’t happen today (12/1)
any explanation?
thanks

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

It’s always hard to know why a market or a sector moves or doesn’t move on a particular day in response to particular news. Midstream MLPs have certainly lagged behind energy stocks and the broader market of late, but with 2017 drilling plans ramping up following the OPEC meeting I still expect that to change sooner than later.

Guest

Guest

What a clown fest this entire current administration is concerning DAPL. First you have a company that has done EVERYTHING right in obtaining permits, then you are a bunch of left wing librards being funded by Soros so protest for months. Who do you think the Obuma administration backs?

They have one gas station coming in and out of that area and it’s owned by the chief. I say every oil company denies that station product going forward. Let’s truly put them back into the stone age where they belong.

John Arnold

John Arnold

What is your opinion of selling ETP before the merger

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I still like the merged entity so would not recommend this. If you plan to re-establish a position later you might well end up increasing your near-term tax liability by selling now, rather than swapping into the “new” ETP (SXL) without surrendering any tax deferral benefits by standing pat. And I think selling the Energy Transfer complex right now would mean selling low.

Bob Cecchini

Bob Cecchini

Igor,

Early last year when MWE shares converted to MPLX, I asked you about MPLX’s prospects. You said they were forecasting 25% distribution growth through 2017 and 20% for 2018 and 2019. Well, the 2016 distribution only grew 4-5% plus the stock is down nearly 15% YTD.

What do you think of their prospects of delivering 20-25% distribution growth and the stock recovering?

Thank you.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

We never recommended MPLX because we knew the incentive rights held by MPC would become a big immediate drag after the acquisition, and of course the subsequent slump in natural gas prices had something to do with the change of distribution plans as well. The question always with rapid distribution growth is, at what price in terms of debt, sustainability, etc. With MPC being pressured by activist investors to cram a lot of dropdowns into MPLX quickly, I’d rather see how that shakes out for MPLX LPs from the sidelines. But it’s not a terrible no-hope investment, either.

Guest

Guest

Guys take a look at AMZA and tell us what you think? Could be a much better play than the 2x ETN with no liquidity.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I don’t think it’s a better play by a long shot, with a serious tax drag and a yield far in excess of the underlying yield of the securities in its portfolio. As for MLPZ’s liquidity, from what I’ve seen the bid/ask is reasonably close. And at least it’s upfront about using leverage, without the same tax issues as that other thing.

Guest

Guest

Guest

Guest

Igor,

Given the appointments of Trump thus far it seems like this is a brewing perfect storm for the US energy space. Would you be surprised if stocks like ETE achieved all time highs within the next two years if Trump does as he says he will?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Well, it’s closer than it was when you asked the question. The high (just last year!) was quite high, so we’re still 88% away and that will likely take more than a couple of years. But then again commodities are a volatile space and if crude is at $90/bbl in 2018 all bets are off, or perhaps on.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
With the merger of ENB and SE , it seems likely that only one of their mlps namely EEP or SEP will survive.
If I remember correctly you consider both buys. If you were only going to invest in only one, which would you choose?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I would actually choose EEQ, which is like owning a non-MLP EEP with an automatic dividend reinvestment plan attached. Between EEP and SEP, I like EEP’s higher yield for as long as it lasts. I think that ultimately EEP will likely be folded into SEP to save on the distributions.

Larry L.

Larry Leibach

Are you concerned that TerraForm could lose value if the current lawsuit is allowed. Why were they downgraded by Reuters to avoid?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’m not concerned that a lawsuit (any lawsuit, since I’m not sure which one you’re referring to) would somehow strip the value from TERP’s assets. And Reuters ratings are even less meaningful than sellside ones, if that’s possible.

Guest

Guest

BX in talks of making a splash for ETP assets. What are we talking here? SUN and DAPL? Let’s pray.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’m sorry I missed my chance to pour cold water on this rumor; I don’t think ETE needs Blackstone though; not like those guys are a charity, either

Guest

Guest

Robert,

I like you but 3 out of 5 correct is not almost .800. It’s exactly .600. With all due respect, $54 is not close to $60 in anyone’s book. We don’t play close but not quite in the real world. I know you have newsletters to sell but pick a lower more reasonable number next time.

Regarding HIlary. No excuses. She won the popular by 3 million and won the bluest state in the union by 4.3 million. Trump soundly pounded her otherwise. The electoral was a borderline blowout.

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

“I like you but 3 out of 5 correct is not almost .800. It’s exactly .600. With all due respect, $54 is not close to $60 in anyone’s book. We don’t play close but not quite in the real world.”

Well, you would be correct had I not noted at the time of this prediction that it was very aggressive, and therefore I would grade it on a curve. This was not a binary prediction. I specifically noted that $50 would be the cutoff, and that anything below that I would grade as a failure, and anything above that a partial success. Since those caveats were clearly stated at the time of the prediction, I can’t agree with your assessment.

And in fact, oil prices rose by 52% from the time I made the prediction. Had they reached $60 it would have been 66%. If you think 52% out of 66% is a complete fail — given what I specifically said when I made the prediction — we can just agree to disagree. “Close but not quite” would have still made you tremendous money.

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