Buy Alert: Western Digital (WDC)

TRADE INSTRUCTIONS
Date: 
August 24, 2017
Name: Western Digital
Symbol: WDC (NSDQ)
Type: Open
Limit: Buy below $92

TRADE TARGETS
Holding Period:
 4 months
Target Return: 12.9%
Annualized Return:
 38.7%
Target Price: $105
Stop Loss Level: $79

COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Western Digital Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions worldwide. It offers performance hard disk drives (HDDs) that are used in enterprise servers, data analysis, and other enterprise applications; capacity HDDs and drive configurations for use in data storage systems and tiered storage models, as well as for use in storage of data for years; and enterprise solid state drives (SSDs), including NAND-flash SSDs and software solutions that are designed to enhance the performance in various enterprise workload environments. Link to company website.

TRADE RATIONALE       
The tech trade has taken a surprising twist over the past month. Once untouchable momentum stocks like Netflix and Amazon are now being called into question (both down 10% since July 26), while low P/E companies such as Intel and Cisco have stabilized and show signs of coming back to life. This has become a nervous stock market, as seen in a spike in the VIX and reduced trading volume during the past three weeks.

Of all the low P/E tech stocks, only Western Digital (WDC) earns a perfect score of 10 from my IDEAL Stock Rating System. Priced at less than 8 times forward earnings while paying a forward dividend yield of 2.3%, it is the kind of stock that could quickly run up the charts if Congress passes corporate tax reform that encourages repatriation of cash held overseas (of its approximately $6 billion in cash, nearly 80% of it is held off shore).

And even if that doesn’t happen, WDC is moving forward with an aggressive acquisition strategy as evidenced by today’s announcement that it intends to buy Toshiba’s flash memory chip division in a deal valued at $17.4 billion. Once that deal is consummated, analysts will most likely increase future revenue projections for WDC, on top of the 38% revenue growth the company recorded in the most recent quarter.

However, WDC also booked a slight loss in the previous quarter, temporarily throwing most of its valuation metrics into disarray. But its five year PEG ratio of 0.27 suggests the stock is grossly undervalued and will need only a return to profitability this quarter to push its share price back up above $100.

 NOTE: This stock is optionable.

Stock Talk

Edward Getchell

Edward Getchell

Jim, I’m surprised that you didn’t elaborate a bit on the ongoing tussle WDC has been having with Toshiba. Do you think it is safe to assume WDC (and its “team” of fellow investors like KKK and the Development Bank of Japan) will succeed in acquiring the prize … the flash memory chip division?

Ed

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

I thought about elaborating on the Toshiba situation, but decided including a link to an article that does elaborate on it would keep the alert to a manageable length (which is not a problem when reading it on a PC monitor, but most of our subs read our email on a phone or other portable device). As for the likelihood of this deal going through, I think the last paragraph of that article says it best: “Toshiba needs to sell its flash memory business — the second-largest in the world behind Samsung — by March or risk being delisted from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It’s selling the chip unit to cover billions of dollars of unexpected losses from its nuclear power business.”

Said Elkhamrichi

Said Elkhamrichi

un grand bonjour…..merci…..

Benny K

Benny K

Jim, do you think WDC still has some upside potential in the near term after its failure to close the chip deal with Toshiba? Would its recent drop be a good entry point?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Yes, I do. In fact, losing the Toshiba deal may turn out to be a blessing in disguise if they can retain the same level of control over that relationship in the near term yet have the extra capital to invest elsewhere for the long term.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

It looks like WDC didn’t wait very long to begin repurchasing its own shares (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/western-digital-announces-authorization-resume-214500546.html); the stock is up more than 3% today!

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

WDC down today on Morgan Stanley report that recommends paring back on chip companies (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/27/chips-fall-as-morgan-stanley-says-now-is-the-time-to-take-profits.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104863843&yptr=yahoo). I don’t argue that many stocks in this sector have become overvalued, but WDC is now priced at less than 8 times forward earnings so I think this is a case of throwing out the baby with the bath water. If you haven’t opened a position in this trade yet, now may be a good time to do so.

Rick

Rick

Viewing today’s drop as an over-reaction, I added another spread to this trade.

I did an Apr 2018 85/92.50 call spread for a net DR of $3.30

Potential Profit $7.50 and paid a net option premium of under 2% over today’s price.

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