Options Trade Alert: General Mills (GIS)

TRADE INSTRUCTIONS

Date: March 28, 2018
Name: General Mills
Symbol (Exchange): GIS (NYSE)
Type: Long Call Option
Expiration: July 20, 2018
Strike Price: 45.00
Limit: Buy below $2.50
Symbol: GIS180720C00045000

TRADE RATIONALE       

General Mills has taken a beating over the past two months, peaking above $60 in late January before dropping below $45 this week due to a secondary stock offering priced at $44 a share to finance its acquisition of Blue Buffalo Pet Products. Now that the bad news is out, the stock should find a floor and recover above $50 over the next quarter (upper Bollinger Band is currently near $55). If so, then this option should at least double in value by expiration.

General Mills has an IDEAL Score of 8 and is currently priced at 13 times forward earnings, and pays a forward annual dividend yield of 4.4%. Value stocks are coming back into vogue, and GIS should look increasingly attractive to investors bailing out of deteriorating bond prices and overpriced momentum stocks looking for steady dividend payers.

Stock Talk

Stanley

Stanley

GIS filled for 2.09 @ Fidelity

Benny K

Benny K

In at $2.10 on Schwab.

Victor

Victor

Filled @ 2.10 on TASTY

Rick

Rick

In at $2.13

JoeJB

JoeJB

Filled at $2.00 on Fidelity

Brian Mccollom

Brian Mccollom

From Steven Leeb newsletter Nov 17, 2017 right after our Continental Resources option trade expired worthless: “Now for our indicators. After six months or so of experimentation, we have concluded that we need to get back to the basics, because that works best for us. That means limiting our recommendations – calls or puts – strictly to ETFs and for those of you with futures accounts, to recommendations on buying and selling futures on market sectors and indexes.”

Why now are we back to trading options in individual companies and not strictly ETFs as was indicated 4 months ago? General Mills chart looks terrible, looks like another high risk options trade on something we were told never to do 4 months ago.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

This trade was not generated by Dr. Leeb’s indicators, which are very short-term in nature and work best with index options. From its inception, Systematic Wealth was meant to be an equity trading service with holdings periods measured in weeks or months, but not days. This trade is consistent with our approach of using proprietary algorithms to identify stocks that we believe have become oversold and likely to outperform the market over the next 1 – 6 months, and we will be issuing more equity options alerts in the future as our indicators dictate. Thank you.

ETKTRIDE

ETKTRIDE

Filled at $2.00 – IB

Darryle

Darryle

Filled today for 2.25 Debit

Darryle

Darryle

Filled more GIS @ 1.79 Debit

Benny K

Benny K

Hi Jim,
Just wondering if you set or recommend setting an exit strategy on the option trades?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Benny. I do not have a predetermined target price that I will execute on the options trades. My inclination is to hold them until expiration unless I feel we have gotten most of the gain we can hope to get. That said, in a market as volatile as this one there is no telling what may happen so I am watching all of the open positions closely with an eye towards locking in gains when they are there for the taking! 🙂

Jerry Dupriest

Jerry Dupriest

I do not want option info. Just to buy!!

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Jerry. Since this is a long call recommendation, you could simply buy the underlying stock if you prefer to own equity. Of course, the ROI will be less than with the option but there is less risk as well. In this case, if GIS goes from $45 to $55 then the return would be roughly 22%.

Dave G.

Dave G.

Jim, do you still like the thesis on gis July call option?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Yes, I do. I expect General Mills to react like Kellog did last week after it released its quarterly results (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-company-reports-2018-first-120000706.html) when it reports its next set of quarterly results in June. Insiders have bought a lot of GIS stock over the past several months, suggesting they believe the performance figures will be better than expected later this year. However, if you want to play it safer you could go out further in expiration if you don’t mind paying a little bit more in premium for the same strike price.

Dramatic License

Dramatic License

This trade excites me with a lot of upside. Looking forward to earnings!

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

We got the good news I was expecting out of GIS this morning, which reported adjusted quarterly earnings of 79 cents per share versus the analyst estimate of 73 cents (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-mills-fiscal-4q-earnings-110926275.html). The stock is up more than 3% in pre-market trading, should be a good day for our option as well. I’ll keep a close eye on it, with less than a month left in our holding period I may close this one out early if we get a nice rise in the stock before then (and I will issue an alert if/when that happens).

Rick

Rick

I bailed at $2.17 this morning for what was essentially breakeven after fees. Given where we were not too long ago, I am very pleased to break even.

Eistha

Eistha

Jim… any guidance on this position? Is the plan to hold it until expiration in the hope of a bounce back or close now and limit losses?

Eistha

Eistha

Jim… any follow ups on this position? Should we close now and limit losses or wait until expiration in the hopes of a bounce back?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

In terms of how I am managing the SW portfolio, I am going to wait until expiration unless GIS jumps up early next week. Of course, you are free to do whatever like so closing it out early and getting what you can for it is entirely up to you.

DR083157

DR083157

So we just loose or are you thinking of rolling this position

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

As a rule, we don’t roll option trades in Systematic Wealth. That said, I still believe the stock is undervalued and likely to rebound over the second half of this year so a roll would be a good move.

MSNFL

Mukesh Narang

Are you sending roll instructions?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

As I said, we don’t roll trades in Systematic Wealth so there are no instructions to send. However, if I were rolling this trade I would look at the October 19 $42.50 call (current ask = $2.33) as the most likely way to recoup the loss from this trade. GIS would only need to get back to $48 to break even.

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