Making Investment Sense of Contagion Chaos

Not surprisingly, a popular film on streaming services right now is Contagion (2011), a thriller about a pandemic that spreads death and disorder around the globe. Over the weekend, my family gathered to watch the movie. Big mistake.

The litany of grisly deaths depicted in Contagion got real depressing, real fast. About 20 minutes into the flick, we switched to lighter fare.

When it comes to the real-life contagion of 2020, there’s no switching the channel. But as you take steps to protect your health, you can also protect your wealth.

Let’s glean insights from the past week, so we can better understand what to expect in the week ahead. I’ll also steer you toward investment opportunities that are poised to outperform.

Stocks last week posted their best weekly performance in 11 years, although both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 remain in bear market territory. The S&P 500 is roughly 25% off its February high.

The catalyst for last week’s rebound was emergency stimulus to counteract the severe economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.

The Federal Reserve unveiled open-ended asset purchases and other measures to maintain liquidity in credit markets. In addition, a $2.2 trillion stimulus package for businesses and individuals passed Congress and was signed by President Trump.

The legislation provides $500 billion in loans and other assistance to large corporations as well as states and cities, and $350 billion in aid to small businesses. The bill also provides direct payments to most Americans and bolsters unemployment insurance benefits.

The double shot of monetary and fiscal stimulus sent stocks higher (see table).

On Monday morning, all three main U.S. stock market indices opened higher but quickly gave up ground in choppy trading. Stocks struggled to gain traction as the day wore on, bouncing between red and green.

Much-needed stimulus has kept stock market declines in check, but a wide swath of the economy remains shuttered into the foreseeable future. The stock market’s modest rebound last week may be a sucker’s rally.

The U.S. now has the most coronavirus cases of any country and deaths are mounting in major cities such as New York. Stock prices reflect projected future earnings and those profit numbers are increasingly dismal.

Some of this negativity is priced into the market, but judging by last Thursday’s bombshell jobs report, you should gird yourself for additional shocks.

Read This Story: The Day The Jobs Boom Died

This week, scheduled economic reports with the potential to trigger wild market swings include consumer confidence (Tuesday); manufacturing PMI, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales (Wednesday); weekly jobless claims (Thursday); and services PMI (Friday). The following table provides the full list:

Bear markets are fed by bad news. The White House on Sunday extended social distancing guidelines through April 30. Analysts expect unemployment to continue rising throughout the spring, perhaps reaching 10% in the summer.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) calls for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by an annualized rate of 24% in the second quarter, the worst quarterly GDP contraction in U.S. economic history, following a projected contraction of 6% in the first quarter.

Earnings projections catch a fever…

According to FactSet, the data provider for Investing Daily, S&P 500 companies as a group are currently expected to post an earnings decline of 4.1% in the first quarter. At the start of the year, Q1 earnings were expected to grow 4.4%.

The biggest Q1 earnings loser is expected to be the energy sector at -68.4%. The global contagion has clobbered energy demand at a time when the world already grappled with a glut of oil.

Read This Story: Twilight for American Shale?

Crude oil prices have fallen nearly 65% year to date, making it unlikely that we’ll see a rebound in the beleaguered energy sector anytime soon.

First-quarter corporate earnings reports for the S&P 500 will be ugly, but just how ugly remains unknown. Coronavirus pressure makes forecasting especially difficult.

Many companies have simply withdrawn their earnings projections altogether. The financial formulae commonly used for guidance have been rendered nearly useless by the pandemic.

Analysts over the past few weeks have dramatically slashed earnings projections for the second quarter, too. Since March 1, estimated earnings for the S&P 500 for Q2 have decreased by $49.6 billion (to $319.6 billion from $369.2 billion).

Analysts have made the largest dollar-level cuts to estimates for companies in the oil, gas, and consumable fuels and airlines industries. Combined, these two industries account for $22.6 billion (46%) of the total $49.6 billion decrease since March 1 in expected earnings for the second quarter.

Other industries that have witnessed major declines in projected Q2 earnings over this period are automobiles (-$4.1 billion), hotels, restaurants and leisure (-$2.8 billion), and financial services (-$1.9 billion). Overall, the S&P 500 is currently projected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of -10% for Q2.

Where to invest now…

One sector that’s expected to weather the storm comparatively well is utilities, which provide essential services people need under any circumstances. According to the latest numbers from FactSet, the utilities sector is projected to post the best earnings growth in Q2 among all 11 S&P 500 sectors, at 6.5%.

Our experts have put together a list of the best utilities stocks now. We call it the “dividend map,” because it directs you to the highest-quality income payers throughout the country. Click here for immediate access.

It’s too dangerous to try and time the bottom of a bear market, but that doesn’t mean you have to sit on the sidelines. Cautiously pick up shares of safe haven assets that are selling at a discount. Our dividend map is a good place to start.

Another place to look is the battered technology sector, which during this pandemic is setting the table for multiyear growth.

Consumer behavior has shifted during the coronavirus crisis toward an even greater embrace of remote technologies, which bodes well for the Big Tech providers of these services.

Virtual private network (VPN) usage has increased in almost every single country with significant coronavirus cases. Since the pandemic first became widely known in December 2019, over 53% of U.S. citizens started using a VPN more often, according to tech firm Atlas VPN.

The coronavirus contagion is driving home the importance of ultra-fast 5G technology, the next-generation of wireless. 5G greatly enhances the capabilities of the Internet of Things and work-at-home gadgets. When the virus eventually subsides, companies tapped into 5G will soar. Click here for our 5G investment report.

During this contagion, frequently wash your hands. But don’t wash your hands of the stock market.

Questions about crisis investing? Drop me a line: mailbag@investingdaily.com

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.