2/10/14: Long-Term Opportunity

It’s time to be a little greedy where others are fearful.

A couple solid names–one a new Aggressive Holding, the other the lone representative from Canada’s Big Five banks among our Conservative Holdings–have been heavily discounted here in early 2014.

That’s despite good track records of dividend growth, entrenched positions in key markets and realistic prospects for new opportunities to expand business operations.

Energy services outfit ShawCor Ltd (TSX: SCL, OTC: SAWLF), a new addition to the CE Portfolio this month, is down 4 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) since Dec. 31, 2013. Some of that is a function of a flight from risk that’s characterized equity markets thus far in the still-new year.

But ShawCor has underperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which is 1 percent to the positive in local currency terms for the comparable period, because of an overreaction to an operations update provided by management in early January.

On Jan. 9, following a preliminary review of fourth-quarter 2013 results, ShawCor announced that it expects to report “significantly lower” earnings compared to the record numbers posted for the third quarter of 2013.

ShawCor is a major provider of pipe-coating technologies to the global oil and gas business, with a particularly strong presence in the deepwater market. The company, which reported 15 percent sequential and 35 percent year-over-year revenue growth for the third quarter and company-record net income of CAD73 million, is also building out its offerings in the composite pipe space.

Management had previously guided for lower third-quarter revenue and earnings, but it also had anticipated starting full-volume production in the fourth quarter on the flow-assurance pipeline project for Inpex Corp (Japan: 1605, OTC: IPXHF, ADR: IPXHY) at the Ichthys LNG project in Western Australia and large projects at facilities in Leith, Scotland, and in Brazil.

As a result of delays stemming from pipe delivery holdups for ShawCor and extended final sign-off timing by clients on product testing, these projects aren’t expected to achieve full production volumes until the first quarter of 2014.

Management expects to see improvement in revenue and earnings over fourth-quarter levels, although not to the record levels reported in the third quarter of 2013.

It’s important to note that short-term delays in project timing are part of the normal course of business for ShawCor. I would caution conservative investors that this type of announcement is not uncommon, and the concomitant share-price volatility is a not-unusual feature of the investment story.

At the same time, this recent weakness provides aggressive investors a great opportunity to establish positions in a solid pipe services company at a time when demand for its expertise is rising around the world.

ShawCor, a new Aggressive Holding, is a buy under USD45.

For more on ShawCor, see this month’s Best Buys feature.

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