Amphenol Flying Under the Radar

Microchips are the brains of modern electronics but to be really useful they need to stay connected, which requires other parts: jacks and prongs, cables and sensors, antennas and switches.

Making any one of these isn’t hard. Making millions of the widgets according to thousands of specifications and delivering them just in time to large and demanding customers on every continent is another matter.

This space is dominated by Amphenol (NYSE: APH), the best little tech roll-up you’ve never heard of.

Amphenol has evolved from a maker of radio tube sockets 85 years ago to a jack-of-all-jacks today, offering the most extensive range of electronics mating paraphernalia.

The Wallingford, CT headquarters directs 62,000 employees worldwide and manufacturing operations in some 30 countries. Key markets include mobile phones and networks, IT and data communications, automotive, industrial and aerospace.

Amphenol is like a Radio Shack for the global supply chain, if Radio Shack delivered, never ran out of things and somehow managed to turn a profit.

The widgets are typically low-cost and fungible but Amphenol’s logistical breadth and reach are cutting edge. Its strategy of buying smaller suppliers to bulk up in the markets growing faster has so far served it well.

Statistically speaking, this is the sort of stock chart you want to buy. Amphenol has outperformed the broader market and delivered shareholder value for years, and there is no reason to believe its run is over.

In fact, the only inflection point in sight is the recent acceleration in global economic growth. This is bound to boost many of the sectors Amphenol supplies, and the company now books 72% of its sales outside the U.S.

The dividend yields just under 1% and Amphenol is spending another 2% or so of market cap on annual share buybacks. Dividends and buybacks account for roughly half the cash flow, while the other half is spent on acquisitions. That’s why, despite the rapid growth, net debt is modest and cheap, with last year’s interest costs amounting to just 7% of the cash flow from operations.

You might think all the cables and sensors generate bare-bones margins, but Amphenol’s gross profit margin rose to a more-than-respectable 32.5% last year thanks to the latest acquisition, while the operating profit margin has been steady at just under 20% of revenue over the last three years.

If you’re a large electronics maker looking for a reliable supplier of interconnect components all over the world, there are other options besides Amphenol. But none is quite as capable, and quality and reliability matter most when the cost of the parts in question is a tiny fraction of the total.

The company is benefiting from the secular long-term trend of increased electronics content in autos, aircraft and other machinery.

The stock’s not really cheap but it hasn’t been in years and that hasn’t slowed its progress.

Investors are paying up a bit for a profitable and conservative industry leader that continues to meet high expectations and is poised to benefit from a broad pickup in growth. This is not a Hail Mary pick but rather one that can reliably move the chains without getting sacked too often. Buy APH below $80.

 

Stock Talk

Edward Getchell

Edward Getchell

AMPHENOL CORP seems to be a Steady Eddy, growing nicely. It has passed your “buy up to limit” of $80, set in March 2017. Is it still a buy, now above $86?

Ed

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I think it’s more of a Hold than a Buy at this price, Ed; has performed exactly as I’d hoped but less upside from here.

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