6/29/12: Chase Value, Not Momentum

It can be hard to hang in there with volatile stocks.

In fact it’s rarely been more emotionally challenging than now, with the memory of 2008 so fresh, the market rife with individual company meltdowns and no shortage of clouds hanging over the broad stock market.

That’s precisely what I advise, however, for Canadian Edge Portfolio recommendations as we await the next round of business performance numbers. And that definitely includes stocks that took a beating during the second quarter, as investors ignored value and were caught up in selling momentum. This group includes New York Stock Exchange-listed Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT), Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) and Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA).

Selling of Just Energy and Pembina occurred on no hard news whatsoever. Meanwhile, Atlantic’s great “sin” has been selling stock and bonds to permanently finance the purchase of a 300-megawatt wind farm in Oklahoma. That plant will sell all its power for 20 years to utility OGE Energy Corp (NYSE: OGE) under a lucrative contract that will raise cash flow, and enhance the company’s ability to grow dividends.

Atlantic Power is still a buy up to my target of USD16 for those who don’t already own it. Just Energy is a buy to USD16, while Pembina Pipeline is a value to USD30.

I also strongly advise readers to stick with the energy producer stocks in the Aggressive Holdings. These have taken a huge hit over the past couple months, as oil prices joined natural gas on the downside.

But as this week’s takeover of Progress Energy Resources Corp (TSX: PRQ, OTC: PRQNF) by major investor Petronas showed, there’s a lot of value in Canadian energy. Petronas’ purchase price is a 77 percent premium to Progress’ pre-announcement share price. And it signals the Malaysian giant’s commitment to unlock Canadian natural gas for export to Asia.

The likelihood of more deals in coming months lit a fire under shares of our recommendations, particularly ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF), which has an even more attractive base of reserves than Progress.

As the dividend cut at former Portfolio holding Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF) demonstrated this month, lower energy prices are having an impact on producers’ cash flow. And in a worst-case we could see dividend cuts, with Pengrowth Energy Corp (TSX: PGF, NYSE: PGH) probably the most vulnerable of current Portfolio Holdings.

But with Asian gas prices several times what they are in North America, it’s only a matter of time before value is unlocked in this space. And except for the weakest companies in the group–such as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSX: AAV, NYSE: AAV) and Perpetual Energy Inc (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF), where bankruptcy is a risk–it’s unlikely any of these stocks is going to get much cheaper, even if there are dividend cuts.

We won’t know how any or these companies really fared in the second quarter until August. But we do already have our first reporter this earnings season: Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR).

Shaw–which ends its fiscal year on Jul. 31–posted results that topped analyst recommendations on both sides of the border. More important, the numbers were right in line with management’s expectations and guidance, and on track to hit a full fiscal year 2012 target of CAD450 million in free cash flow.

The company continues to invest in its broadband infrastructure and grow its share of higher margin communications businesses. The dividend was well covered, with a payout ratio of just 45.8 percent based on earnings per share and roughly 1.3-to-1 free cash flow coverage.

I’ll have a more in-depth review of Shaw’s numbers in the July Canadian Edge, which will be published Friday, Jul. 6, 2012. In the meantime, Shaw Communications remains a buy up to USD22 for those who don’t already own it.

Here’s when Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings are expected to report second-quarter 2012 results. I include estimates for companies yet to confirm actual announcement dates.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Jul. 27 (estimate)
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Aug. 8 (confirmed)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Aug. 13 (estimate)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Aug. 13 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPUF)–Aug. 15 (estimate)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–Aug. 3 (estimate)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Aug. 8 (estimate)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–Aug. 13 (estimate)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JUSTF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Aug. 8 (confirmed)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Aug. 14 (confirmed)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–Aug. 3 (estimate)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Aug. 7 (estimate)
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–Jun. 28 (reported)
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, OTC: STUXF)–Sept. 21 (estimate)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Aug. 2 (estimate)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–Jul. 27 (estimate)
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Aug. 13 (estimate)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Aug. 3 (estimate)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Aug. 3 (estimate)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Jul. 20 (estimate)
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Aug. 3 (estimate)
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Jul. 23 (confirmed)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Aug. 3 (confirmed)
  • Pengrowth Energy Corp (TSX: PGF, NYSE: PGH)–Aug. 10 (confirmed)
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–Aug. 8 (estimate)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–Aug. 3 (estimate)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Aug. 2 (confirmed)

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