7/20/12: Colabor Reports, Just Energy Affirms

This is still very much a “piling on” market, where fearful investors sell stocks that appear to weaken and surge into a handful of favorites perceived to be safe.

But at least this week two of our more battered Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings were able to smack down their critics and affirm shareholders’ patience.

Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) announced solid second-quarter earnings that provided ample dividend coverage and confirmed the distributor of food and related products is well on track with its longer-term strategic initiatives.

Cash flow rose 3.8 percent per share, pushing the 12-month payout ratio down to just 62 percent. Comparable sales, which exclude acquisitions, rose 0.8 percent, and both wholesale and retail divisions firmed margins, excluding one-time items.

The company continues to face difficult conditions, as consumers’ tighter spending habits pressure its customers’ sales. Management, however, also reported considerable success signing new business and extending existing contracts without compressing margins.

That’s in large part due to efforts to increase penetration of existing markets, particularly in Eastern Canada, a well as to add new products with an eye to becoming a one-stop service company. And this is all on top of a coordinated strategy to reduce costs and improve efficiency at all levels of the company.

Before this earnings season, I stated I would either restore Colabor to a buy or sell the stock based on what its numbers were. I’ll have more on these results in the August issue of Canadian Edge, which will be published Aug. 10, 2012, in order to include the maximum analysis of second-quarter results. But at this point I’ve seen enough to raise Colabor back to a buy up to USD8.

Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) has been the most volatile Conservative Holding the past several days. The stock has been relatively weak this year, largely due to investor worries about potential exposure to lower natural gas and wholesale electricity prices this year.

The company answered these concerns definitively with very positive fiscal 2012 third- and fourth-quarter results. (Just Energy’s fiscal year runs from Apr. 1 to Mar. 31.) But skeptics have remained legion, preventing the stock from getting any traction.

Then this week an analyst’s opinion questioning the company’s accounting practices set off a wave of selling and a one-day loss of more than 10 percent. Unfortunately, we’re going to have to wait until around Aug. 10 to get a new set of Just Energy numbers, which will be for the first quarter of fiscal 2013.

But management did answer clearly that the company’s current dividend is safe, sustainable for the long term and well covered by cash flow, which is still expected to grow by at least 8 percent to 10 percent this fiscal year.  It also confirmed guidance for growth in margins of 8 percent to 10 percent.

No doubt that won’t be enough for many critics. But it’s enough for me to keep Just Energy in the Conservative Holdings as a buy, with every expectation that new numbers will confirm its underlying strengths. My target remains USD16, well above the current price but a level at which the stock would still be a value. Just Energy Group is a buy under USD16.

I’ll have another Flash Alert next week with highlights of companies reporting then. Full analysis of the numbers will be in the August issue of CE, which will be posted to the website Aug. 10.

Stock Talk

Bruce Mallatt

Bruce Mallatt

What is the latest advice on Just Energy Group?

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