1/10/13: A Favorable Start to Earnings Season

Calendar fourth-quarter earnings season is off to a good start for Canadian Edge Portfolio companies. Wednesday morning, Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A, NYSE: SJR) reported a 14 percent boost in earnings per share, backed by a 3.1 percent increase in revenue.

All three of the company’s key divisions–cable television, satellite communications and media–turned in solid results. Encouragingly, media, the newest division, had the best results, with a 7 percent rise in revenue that led to a 9 percent surge in operating income. Improved advertising and subscriber revenue offset higher programming costs.

The latter could moderate in 2013, thanks to a favorable court decision limiting regulators’ power to set programming rates. Cable and satellite revenue, meanwhile, were both up 2 percent, and operating income rose 5 percent and 7 percent at the divisions, respectively.

Shaw’s fully diluted earnings of 49 cents Canadian per share covered the monthly dividend by better than a 2-to-1 margin (payout ratio of 49.4 percent). Meanwhile, free cash flow came in at CAD244 million for the quarter, up 105 percent from year-earlier levels.

Shaw does have CAD350 million in debt maturities this year and CAD600 million next year. Odds are, however, it will be able to refinance those borrowings at much lower rates. Mainly, the 2013 bond has a coupon rate of 7.5 percent, while the 2014 bond has a rate of 6.5 percent. That’s well above the 3.8 percent yield-to-maturity on the company’s bonds due in December 2020.

Shaw’s biggest challenge in Canada’s fragmented communications market is competing against phone companies, particularly Telus Corp (TSX: T, NYSE: TU), the incumbent powerhouse in western Canada. Once again, however, there’s no evidence the company isn’t holding its own in terms of market share, while expanding its range of offerings and holding margins steady.

A drop in basic video customers, for example, was more than offset by an increase in digital phone lines and Internet users. Internet penetration is now up to 87.8 percent of total video customers, improving retention rates and expanding margins.

The report’s most bullish news was the accompanying 5 percent dividend increase, which means the new monthly rate is now 8.4792 cents Canadian per share. That’s on the high side of previous expectations and justifies a boost in our buy target for Shaw to USD24.

Among our Canadian Edge Portfolio holdings, Shaw was the first to report earnings because they’re for its fiscal first-quarter 2013 that ended Nov. 30. By contrast, the rest of our companies will be reporting mostly full-year 2012 results for the period ending Dec. 31, and earnings releases will therefore stretch out over the first three months of 2013.

The Roundup

Here’s when Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings will report their next sets of numbers. Dates are described as “confirmed” if companies have already announced release dates or “estimate” if we’re making a forecast based on past practice.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–March 8 (estimate)
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Feb. 28 (estimate)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–March 7 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–March 12 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–Feb. 13 (estimate)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR, OTC: CDPYF)–Feb. 28 (estimate)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Feb. 8 (estimate)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–March 6 (estimate)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–Feb. 22 (estimate)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Feb. 22 (estimate)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–March 21 (estimate)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Feb. 15 (estimate)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR, OTC: NPRUF)–March 13 (estimate)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–Feb. 15 (estimate)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF)–Feb. 14 (estimate)
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A. NYSE: SJR)–Jan. 10 Flash Alert
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–Feb. 13 (estimate)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Feb. 28 (estimate)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF)–Feb. 6 (estimate)
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–March 14 (estimate)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Feb. 8 (estimate)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE, OTC: CGIFF)–Feb. 22 (estimate)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–March 22 (estimate)
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–March 15 (estimate)
  • Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–March 1 (estimate)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–March 26 (estimate)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–Feb. 8 (estimate)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Feb. 15 (estimate)
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Feb. 14 (estimate)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–March 7 (estimate)
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–March 7 (estimate)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–March 7 (estimate)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–March 5 (estimate)
  • Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–March 6 (estimate)

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