Waiting for More Numbers

First-quarter earnings-reporting season is nearly upon us.

And, despite some turbulence in the North American energy sector, my outlook is positive for all of our MLP Profits Portfolio Holdings to continue growing revenue streams, strengthening balance sheets and increasing distributions.

The greatest risks these master limited partnerships (MLP) will face in the next few weeks is meeting the expectations baked into their unit prices after the first-quarter run-up.

Unfortunately, the better the gain, the tougher that task will be.

Here’s how they look now, along with when to expect earnings. Note that I’ve listed them in alphabetical order rather than divide them by Portfolio grouping.

Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL) is expected to report its numbers May 3. The market will be viewing results through the prism of prospective distribution coverage and whether the owner of refined petroleum products infrastructure is still on target to resume distribution growth by early 2014.

My view remains that when that happens, the unit price will revisit its old range in the mid-USD60s. At this point, however, the price reflects too much good news too soon. The MLP did win a very favorable ruling from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of a recent rate dispute.

But I’m still a buyer of Buckeye Partners only on dips to USD55 or lower.

DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM) is expected to report its first-quarter results on May 7. The MLP has raised its distribution for nine consecutive quarters, the result of expanding the fee-based portion of its operation.

The general partner continues to drop down assets to the MLP that increase that percentage, including facilities in the Eagle Ford Shale already this month that are protected by a three-year commodity price hedge. That should provide fuel for further distribution growth.

But DCP Midstream Partners is an often volatile MLP that investors should wait for a dip to USD44 or lower to buy.

Eagle Rock Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EROC) is projected to turn in numbers on May 3. I’ve rated this one a hold primarily because of the lack of recent distribution growth and weakened distribution coverage in the wake of weakened commodity prices.

That remains my take, though at a yield of 9 percent-plus it’s clear that expectations are low. And if first-quarter results do give me a level of comfort I’ll likely upgrade it.

Eagle Rock Energy Partners remains a hold.

El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: EPB), like the rest of the Kinder Morgan empire, reports ahead of the pack, with April 17 the confirmed date.

The MLP’s primary source of growth now are the assets that general partner Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE: KMI) drops down to it, which are likely to remain substantial in coming years. We added this high-quality, fee-focused MLP last year at a time when pessimism surrounding the Kinder Morgan Inc-El Paso Corp merger was running high–and we’ve seen a substantial gain since.

At this point, however, investors are best off waiting on a dip to USD42 or lower before buying El Paso Pipeline Partners.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) should be turning in its first-quarter numbers on or about May 8. The key dilemma with MLP is if it will begin raising distributions again this year or if there’s another major merger on the horizon.

The company and its general partner, Energy Transfer Equity LP (NYSE: ETE), completed a major simplification move this month, as the latter effectively dropped down the rest of its operating assets in return for a greater stake in Energy Transfer Partners. Moody’s affirmed the ratings of both following the USD3.75 billion deal, despite the near-term cash needs of Energy Transfer Partners to complete it. The next deal could be a hookup with Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE: RGP).

But I wouldn’t pay more than my longstanding target of USD50 for Energy Transfer Partners until we see a higher payout.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) has an anticipated first-quarter 2013 reporting date of May 2. The MLP continues to roll, adding new fee-based assets financed with historically low-cost capital, including a new 31-year bond issue priced to yield just 4.85 percent.

The primary problem remains a premium valuation, with the stock hitting a new all-time high this week. The buy-under target will go higher in coming months. But as patient investors have seen time and again in recent months, Enterprise can be volatile, and those who’ve waited have been able to purchase at a bargain price periodically.

Buy Enterprise Products Partners on dips to USD55 or lower.

Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL) usually comes out with numbers early in the reporting season and is expected to turn in results on or about April 26. I expect another round of good news to back up the recent 10 percent-plus annualized distribution growth rate as well as bullish guidance.

The test will be if what’s reported backs up the nearly 40 percent unit-price gain this year. My view is that’s going to be very tough to do.

Genesis Energy LP is a good candidate for taking a partial profit for those who already own it, though new buyers can step in below USD35.

Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE: NRGM) has an anticipated reporting date of May 3.

This is a far different Inergy than what existed a couple years ago. There’s no longer a propane operation, and all revenue comes from natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) storage and transportation assets in the Northeast US.

The MLP has consistently raised distributions since its spinoff from Inergy LP (NYSE: NRGY) a little more than a year ago. That’s been the major spur to total returns that have to date more than made up for our previous loss in Inergy LP. And the future looks solid as well.

My buy-under target for Inergy Midstream LP remains USD24 or lower.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) has a confirmed first-quarter earnings release date of April 17.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners continues to find ways to grow the business by adding new fee-based energy infrastructure, such as a USD58 million plan to expand a chemical storage facility in Louisiana announced this week. That’s how the USD32 billion MLP will keep its cash flow and distribution growing at a solid clip in coming years.

And it’s why Kinder Morgan Energy Partners rates a buy on dips to USD86 or lower for those who don’t already own it. This buy-under target will rise with distribution growth this year.

Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY) will report earnings on or about May 2 if past release dates are any guide.

The energy producer has had a difficult time covering its distribution with cash flow in recent quarters. Nonetheless, it continues to enjoy the full-throated support of Wall Street, with all 13 analysts covering the company rating it a “buy.”

I’ve rated the stock a hold in recent weeks but will upgrade to a buy again depending on what’s reported. Note Legacy has increased distributions for nine consecutive quarters and another boost should be forthcoming this month.

Legacy Reserves LP remains a hold pending a distribution increase.

Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE) has also historically gotten out in front of earnings reporting season and has an anticipated date of April 26 for its first-quarter numbers.

The energy producer silenced its critics with solid fourth-quarter results and a major acquisition last month, but the unit price has failed to make much headway since amid turbulent energy sector conditions. This week management released bullish 2015 guidance and provided more detail about its price hedging strategy, which had come under fire prior to the earnings announcement last month.

The company still has its critics as well as a fair amount of short volume, equal to 7.6 days of average trading volume. That explains the fact that it’s still trading below my target of USD40. I never, ever recommend anyone overload on one stock.

But Linn Energy LLC–a high-quality bargain for anyone who hasn’t already gotten in–is definitely a buy below USD40.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP) will turn in numbers on or about May 2 if past reporting cycles are prologue.

The company’s big news recently is the opening of the Longhorn Pipeline, which transports crude oil from West Texas to Houston-area refineries. That’s expected to leaven out regional price differentials and line Magellan’s pockets in the meantime.

Insiders are still buying the stock, but the unit price has come a long way in a short time. Those with big profits may consider taking a little money off the table with the yield now well below 4 percent.

My buy-under target for Magellan Midstream Partners remains USD42 for new investors.

Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: MCEP) is expected to report its first-quarter results on or about May 8.

Small producers are by their nature more speculative than larger ones, and this is the highest-stakes play in the MLP Profits Portfolio on that score. On the other hand, management continues to execute development plans, and another distribution increase is likely to be announced this month.

Look for investors to focus on distribution coverage as well as execution of production plans and possible pricing differentials. The good news is the bar of expectations is low. Encouragingly, insiders have boosted holdings in the company by 7 percent-plus over the past six months.

Mid-Con Energy Partners is a buy up to USD26.50 for new investors.

Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM) will report profits on or about April 26.

Conditions in the bulk shipping industry are still dismal, and speculation is high that bid dividend payers such as Navios may be forced to cut payouts before there’s improvement.

I expect to see another round of favorable numbers at Navios that support the distribution and adhere to management’s strategy of locking in long-term contracts at good prices.

But given the sector weakness and the stock’s recent strong performance, Navios Maritime Partners rates a hold.

Oiltanking Partners LP (NYSE: OILT) is expected to turn in numbers for the first quarter on or about May 9.

This recommendation has been very successful to date, as I note in In Brief, and I expect a lot more ahead as management executes its relatively simple strategy of adding new oil-storage facilities in export-ready regions.

The company’s partnership with Enterprise Products Partners in LPG and NGLs facilities in the Houston Ship Channel is one with enormous potential.

The major drawback of this company now is price, which is some 25 percent above my buy-under target. Those with big profits may consider taking some money off the table.

My buy-under target for Oiltanking Partners remains USD40 or lower.

PVR Partners LP (NYSE: PVR) shouldn’t have us waiting long to see how it fared in the first quarter of 2013, with an anticipated reporting date of April 26.

Our sole loser this year, the MLP’s skeptics don’t include insiders, who have increased holdings by 14 percent-plus the past six months. But they do include credit rater S&P, which cut the company’s senior unsecured rating to B-.

S&P cited the obvious: likely continued weakness in the company’s coal royalties business, both from lower selling prices and reduced activity on its lands. And it forecast weakness in the midstream business as well, due to lower NGLs prices.

Also implicit in the rating change is management’s policy of paying out large distributions, a sticking point for most MLPs’ relationships with credit raters.

First-quarter results are unlikely to show dramatic improvement in coal royalties. The key question will be how well the growth of the fee-based midstream assets offsets that. My primary concern is whether that will lead management to break a string of seven consecutive quarterly distribution boosts. In my view, PVR’s high yield compensates for that risk, at least for more aggressive investors.

My buy-under target for PVR Partners remains USD25.

Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE: RGP) should turn in its numbers about the same time as sister MLP Energy Transfer Partners, on or about May 8. The MLP’s next move looks like a combination with Energy Transfer Partners, as both share the same general partner, Energy Transfer Equity.

But in the meantime, Regency should enjoy a solid cash flow gain from the gathering assets recently dropped down by Energy Transfer Equity.

I continue to rate Regency Energy Partners a hold but will upgrade it to a buy again on an improvement in cash flow distribution coverage.

Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP) should release its first-quarter results on or about May 7.

Like the rest of the Conservative Holdings, this MLP was cheap for many months before investors decided it was appealing for its reliability. The primary avenue for growth remains drop downs from parent Spectra Energy Corp (NYSE: SE), with the latter’s recent purchase of the Express-Platte Pipeline System a solid candidate for later this year.

But anyone expecting fast returns here should think again. I’ll likely raise my buy-under target later this month when the MLP raises its distribution for the 22ndnd consecutive quarter.

In the meantime Spectra Energy Partners is a buy on dips to USD34 or lower.

Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE: NGLS) has an anticipated reporting date of May 3 for first-quarter results.

The NGLs midstream MLP suffered a few ups and downs last year but has been off to the races since mid-December.

Weak NGLs pricing or no, the MLP is still having few problems finding and financing new projects and sharing the proceeds with investors as distribution growth. I expect to see another large distribution increase this month, along with a boost in buy target when that happens.

Until then Targa Resources Partners is a buy under USD44.

Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP) will be among our last reporters if history is any guide, with numbers expected on or about May 17.

The company’s business of owning and operating LNG tankers continues to be largely immune to the global glut of tankers in other specialties, largely because this is a nascent industry where volumes are only beginning to pick up. That gives this MLP a degree of safety rivals don’t share.

We’ll see how expansion plans are going when numbers are released. But I expect to see another distribution increase at the end of this month.

Teekay LNG Partners rates a buy on dips to USD41 or lower.

Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (NYSE: VNR) is expected to report its numbers for the first quarter on or about May 2.

The oil and gas producer actually won a credit rating increase to B1 from Moody’s, which cited expected production increases this year from the “proved developed reserve base.” We should see the first installment of that with the opening quarter’s numbers.

Meanwhile, Vanguard Natural Resources continues to trade below my target of USD30.

Q4 Revisited

Here once again is where to find analysis of MLP Profits Portfolio Holdings’ fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 numbers.

Stock Talk

Ralph Carey

Ralph Carey

Roger
You recommend holding off NMM above, yet in “How They Rate”, you recommend buying below 18.
Which advice should I take? NMM is a little over 14 now, so looks like a “great buy”. There are mighty few other MLPs which look anywhere nearly as attractive, today, esp ones with a 3 or better safety rasting.
Incidentally, NMM has elected to report on 1099-DIV rather than on a K1.
Last year’s distributions were 79.5 % Qualified dividends & 20.5 % “non-dividend distributions”,
Thus, the only part of distributions which reduce NMMs tax basis are the 20.5%.

Investing Daily Service

Investing Daily Service

Hi Mr. Carey:

Roger feels that NMM should be changed to a hold. The portfolios are being updated to reflect this change.

Ralph Carey

Ralph Carey

Back again
Since NMM is now filing as a C Corporation, shouldn’t it be removed from your list of MLPs?

Jason Burack

Jason Burack

Hello Ralph, I believe you are confusing Navios Maritime Partners L.P. with the other 2 Navios entities trading on the NYSE. NMM just paid out a distribution last week.

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account