Into the Fire

As I note in this month’s In Brief, the purpose of Canadian Edge remains to build and maintain a portfolio of high-quality stocks backed by solid businesses that demonstrate, through quarterly and annual financial and operating results, the ability to sustain and grow dividends over time.

We face this month two stern tests of this commitment.

Aggressive Holding Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF) cut its dividend by 42.8 percent, as an increasingly fraught US health care funding situation combined with economic uncertainty to finally push management into its own hard choice.

We discuss the result of this decision more fully in this month’s Dividend Watch List feature. In short, however, Extendicare is now a hold.

Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF), meanwhile, reported first-quarter results that underwhelmed analysts and appears on its way to a dividend cut when management makes its next declaration, on or about June 17, 2013.

The market has reacted in hard fashion to the food distributor’s soft numbers, sending the company’s share price tumbling from CAD6.97 as of the close of trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) on April 29 to CAD5.23 by May 2. That’s a 25 percent decline over the course of three sessions.

Competition, weather and the impact of a two fewer days in the first quarter of 2013 versus the first quarter of 2012 led to a 1.5 percent decline in sales,

When Colabor reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results just five weeks ago we established several benchmarks to look for in management’s first-quarter 2013 report, including the payout ratio based on cash flow per share approaching 50 percent; progress on debt ratios, or at least no upward spike; realized savings from the “action plan” described in the fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 management discussion and analysis (MD&A) hitting the CAD3.5 million target; and positive comparable sales.

The payout ratio for the 12 months ended March 23, 2013, was reported at 68 percent, down from 86 percent a year ago but up from the 52 percent figure reported for the fourth quarter of 2012.

As of March 23, 2013, Colabor had drawn CAD100 million on its CAD150 million credit facility. Debt-to-12-month EBITDA was 3.15-to-1, just below the prescribed maximum of 3.25-to-1, while the interest coverage ratio was 4.06-to-1, above the required minimum of 3.50-to-1. And total debt-to-12-month EBITDA was 4.66-to-1 was above the prescribed maximum of 4.50-to-1. Colabor’s banking syndicate has granted a waiver for this variance from the maximum.

Management noted that the company’s “financial position remains sound,” adding that it ended the first quarter with the outstanding balance on its credit facility down CAD20.6 million from a year earlier.

Comparable sales, meanwhile, were off by 1.8 percent.

Sales for the Distribution segment were down 4.6 percent to CAD204.9 million in the first quarter, as comparable sales for the unit declined 2.7 percent. This was partly offset by distribution sales of CAD2.9 million from recently acquired T. Lauzon’s distribution operations. T. Lauzon is recognized as the top beef products specialist in Quebec’s food service industry. Management is hopeful that the addition will help position Colabor as “the specialist for the center of the plate.”

Sales for the Wholesale segment were up 6.6 percent to CAD88.7 million in the first quarter, due mainly to Lauzon’s wholesale operations. Comparable sales were up 0.3 percent.

As for the action plan, management has launched initiatives to stimulate higher-margin sales; commenced a review of operations of the Eastern Quebec and New Brunswick division, including improvement of the supply chain among the warehouses of this division; completed the acquisition of T. Lauzon; and transferred meat-product purchasing from the Ontario Division and Eastern Quebec to Lauzon.

In its fourth quarter MD&A, in relation to measures taken in 2012, management forecast that its operating costs for 2013 would decrease by about CAD3.5 million. In its first-quarter MD&A management noted, “However, the loss of a procurement contract of about CAD85 million in Ontario as of April 2013 will result in cancelling this increase with respect to EBITDA.”

Colabor insiders have sold 15,000 shares since March 22. And three of the five analysts that cover the stock cut their ratings this week.

National Bank Financial reiterated its “sector outperform” call but cut its 12-month target price to CAD7.25 from CAD8.50. The stock now has one “buy” rating versus two “holds” and two “sells” on Bay Street, with an average 12-month target price of CAD5.35.

More importantly, Colabor’s progress on the benchmarks we established in March has been negligible, at best. Answering the first question posed during management’s conference call to discuss first-quarter results, CEO Claude Gariepy offered something less than George C. Scott doing Patton:

Okay. [CFO] Michele [Lignon] just said that the last 12-month dividend ratio and cash flow was 68 percent. Okay? Last year, at the same date, it was 86 percent. And remember that when I took over this position, the ratio was 94 percent. So at this moment, okay–and you actually understand the fact that the dividend decision is not a CEO decision, it’s a Board decision. I have no mandate at this moment to challenge the fact that we have a CAD0.72 dividend.

Colabor will make its next dividend declaration in mid-June. The market is currently betting on a cut, as a yield based on the CAD0.18 per share quarterly rate of 13.8 percent attests.

Still struggling, mightily, against competitive pressures as well as difficult economic conditions, Colabor looks to be closing in on another dividend cut. Conservative investors should take the opportunity of bounce off the current depressed share-price level to exit the position in favor of one of this month’s Best Buy selections, Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF).

Aggressive investors can certainly hold on, accepting the compensation of a 13.8 percent yield. New money is better off elsewhere, such as in the other May Best Buy, Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF).

Colabor Group is now rated a hold, but that’s only for aggressive investors who can tolerate the suspense until June 17 and who are willing to ride out what appears to be a difficult road ahead for the company and the stock.

Three Conservative Holdings and three Aggressive Holdings had reported financial and operating results, five for the first quarter and one for its fiscal 2013 second quarter. Results were much more positive than what we’ve seen from Extendicare and Colabor.

Conservative Cool

AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF) continues to churn out evidence in support of the argument that it’s one of North America’s best dividend-growth stories. Investors have certainly taken notice, as the share price is up about 20 percent over the trailing 12 months.

Another dividend increase, announced April 25, 2013, along with first-quarter results, means a higher buy-under target, which is now USD36.50. The shares closed at around USD35.38 the day before the earnings announcement and have since rallied to USD37.57 as of this writing. The search for solid income continues apace, and AltaGas certainly provides it.

Management continues to add natural gas processing, power and regulated utility assets that add to cash flow and earnings and provide support for further dividend growth

In 2012 AltaGas acquired SEMCO Holding Corp, which owns natural gas utilities in Michigan and Alaska, for USD1.1 billion. And last month it finalized a deal to buy Blythe Energy LLC, which operates a 507 megawatt natural gas-fired power plant in Southern California, for USD515 million.

These utility and power assets should provide steady streams of cash flow as AltaGas’ revenue mix evolves; power and utility businesses are on track to contribute more than 60 percent of earnings by 2015, up from 45 percent in 2011.

AltaGas reported an 18 percent increase in normalized earnings per share to CAD0.53, up from CAD0.45 a year ago. Normalized earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the first quarter were up 59 percent to CAD145.8 million from CAD91.6 million, as SEMCO delivered over CAD96 million in the first two quarters of ownership.

Normalized funds from operations, meanwhile, increased to CAD122.3 million, or CAD1.16 per share, from CAD74.7 million, or CAD0.83 per share, in the first quarter of 2012. The first-quarter payout ratio based on normalized funds from operations was 31 percent, with a coverage ratio of 3.22-to-1.

First-quarter 2013 interest expense was CAD24.6 million, up from CAD12.8 million due to a higher average debt level of CAD2.7 billion in first quarter 2013 compared to CAD1.4 billion in first quarter 2012, partially offset by lower average borrowing rate of 4.7 percent compared to 5.5 percent.

AltaGas’ balance sheet remains strong, with debt-to-total capitalization of 57 percent at the end of first quarter. Following the closing of the Blythe acquisition the ratio will decline to 54 percent.

The company continues to see strong support in credit markets, as it finalized a new CAD300 million credit commitment to support the Blythe acquisition and on April 12 issued a two-year, USD175 million floating-rate note at LIBOR plus 79 basis points.

Management, along with Japan-based partner Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (Japan: 5019, ADR: IDKOY), is currently evaluating a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) platform off the coast of Western Canada that would, at significantly lower cost, unlock North American gas for export to Asia.

AltaGas and Idemitsu announced in January 2013 plans to build a terminal to begin exporting LNG from British Columbia as soon as 2016, using an existing AltaGas pipeline connecting to major natural-gas reserves inland. This pipeline is the only gas pipeline carrying output from resource plays in northeast British Columbia to the Pacific coast

It’s also a far simpler proposition to build an offshore platform than it is to construct a liquefaction terminal on land, so AltaGas’ project would likely deliver first gas ahead of most of the other projects that are in various stages of planning and/or construction.

Getting there first is an important part of the gas-to-Asia equation, as long-term supply-and-demand analysis indicates that there probably won’t be enough uptake across the Pacific to satisfy the aspirations of many North American projects’ sponsors.

AltaGas management has said a final decision on the project will come by the end of 2013. The key will be finding buyers in Asia.

Other projects that will boost earnings and cash flow include the British Columbia-based Forrest Kerr run-of-river hydro project, which is on track for startup in the first quarter of 2014, as well as BC-based hydro projects McLymont Creek and Volcano Creek, which will come online by late 2015.

These plants will operate under 60-year, inflation-indexed power-purchase agreements with the Government of British Columbia.

These hydro projects and the Harmattan and Gordondale gas-processing projects will underpin dividend growth going forward. AltaGas is now a buy under USD36.50.


The market wasn’t too appreciative of Shaw Communications Inc’s (TSX: SJR/A, NYSE: SJR) fiscal 2013 second-quarter earnings when first revealed on April 12. Shaw’s share price, trading at a five-year high early in the month, slid from CAD24.99 on the TSX on April 10 to CAD22.69 a little more than two weeks later.

The trouble was the cable TV provider’s subscriber losses, which were the highest ever on q quarterly basis as competition from TELUS Corp’s (TSX: T, NYSE: TU) IPTV offering took a significant bite. Bay Street had been anticipating negative subscriber numbers, but not of this magnitude. Revenue also came in below expectations.

But Shaw added customers in its three other services, and revenue grew by 1.6 percent to CAD1.25 billion.

Management also increased its guidance for free cash flow for the year. As of October 2012 Shaw expected free cash flow for fiscal 2013 to be in line with the CAD482 million reported for fiscal 2012.

“With the first half of the year behind us and modest positive variances across service operating income before amortization, capital investment and interest and cash taxes, we now expect free cash flow to approximate $550 million,” said CEO Brad Shaw in a statement announcing results.

As of Feb. 28, 2013, the customer base for Shaw’s Basic Cable unit was 2,136,707, reflecting a net reduction of 29,829 customers from the year-ago quarter. Shaw added 7,800 Internet customers, bringing the total to 1,910,185. Digital phone line customers grew by 13,090 to 1,375,707, while the DTH customer base grew by 1,328 to 907,330.

Revenue in the Cable division of CAD814 million was up 1 percent over the prior comparable period, as a rate increase offset the subscriber decline. Operating income before amortization for the quarter of CAD393 million was up 12 percent.

Satellite revenue of CAD209 million was down from CAD211 million, though operating income before amortization was up to CAD73 million from CAD71 million.

Revenue and operating income before amortization in the Media division for the quarter of CAD249 million and CAD72 million, respectively, each increased 3 percent year over year.

Overall net income was CAD182 million, or CAD0.38 per share, compared to CAD178 million, or CAD0.38 per share, for the second quarter of fiscal 2012.

Earnings per share covered the CAD0.242499 per share total dividend paid during the quarter by 1.56-to-1, equivalent to a payout ratio of 63.8 percent.

In January Shaw announced a 5 percent payout increase that was effective with the monthly dividend paid March 27, 2013. Shaw is a buy under USD24.

TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF), like most, if not all, companies with exposure to the energy patch, is suffering due to declining drilling activity in Western Canada. Although its oil sands business is in good shape, one of its operating units owns trucks that move oil and gas rigs from drill site to drill site.

And CEO Alain Bedard described the Canadian rig-moving business as “a mess” during a recent conference call to discuss first-quarter 2013 results.

Total revenue for the first three months of the year declined by 4.9 percent to CAD749.7 million on slower energy services activity and softer numbers for the company’s less-than-truckload segment. Somewhat offsetting these negative factors, recent acquisition Velocity Express contributed CAD24.9 million of revenue.

First-quarter operating income was CAD44.6 million, or 5.9 percent of total revenue, versus CAD47.4 million, or 6 percent of total revenue, for the first quarter of 2012.

Adjusted net income, which excludes the after-tax effect of changes in the fair value of derivatives and net foreign exchange gain or loss, was CAD24.4 million, basically flat with the year-ago total of CAD24.7 million.

TransForce bought back 3.4 million shares over the 12 months to March 31, 2013, pushing adjusted earnings per share up to CAD0.26 from CAD0.25 a year ago. That covered the CAD0.13 dividend by a 2-to-1 margin.

Net income was CAD18.9 million, or CAD0.20 per share, versus CAD30.2 million, or CAD0.31 per share, in the first quarter of 2012.
Net cash from operating activities was CAD20.6 million, down from CAD47.5 million a year earlier, mainly due to a CAD21.4 million increase in income tax paid during the first quarter of 2013. Free cash flow for the first quarter was CAD26.5 million, or CAD0.29 per share.

The energy services division represents an estimated 12 percent of total revenue; goods transportation and package delivery form the bulk of the overall business. But TransForce is making big moves to reduce exposure to a unit that in the past generated more than CAD100 million of revenue but has been reduced to about a quarter of that over the last several quarters.

Part of the current steep slide in oil and gas rig counts is seasonal. But natural gas prices, although they’ve rallied well, remain at barely breakeven level for all but the most efficient producers. And Canadian crude, although differentials have narrowed in recent weeks, is still constrained by a lack of sufficient infrastructure to get it to market, and that’s keeping prices down.

Then there’s the problem of rising competition, as smaller rig-transport operators re-enter the business following the expiration of non-compete agreements signed when they sold to bigger players such as TransForce years back. New capacity is bringing more pressure on prices for services.

Activity in the US isn’t as depressed as it is in Canada, but TransForce will nevertheless scale back its energy services operations there as well. In addition to planned sales of CAD5 million worth of equipment and the closure of five work sites in Canada, management will shut in about CAD7 million worth of equipment in the US.

Management will focus capital spending on areas where prospects are much brighter, specifically the packaging and courier market.

In January TransForce acquired Texas-based Velocity Express to build out density in same-day delivery, adding CAD160 million of revenue. Velocity is one step toward realizing significant upside in North American e-commerce. A pilot project with Amazon.com Inc (NSDQ AMZN) to provide same-day delivery service in Chicago is another.

Management’s outlook was punctuated by Mr. Bedard’s statement that “we do not see significant improvement in business conditions before the end of the year” and sent the share price another leg lower on its descent from a mid-February closing high above CAD23. But as of May 2 TransForce is still trading above our buy-under target of CAD17.

On a price-to-earnings basis–TransForce’s ratio is 14.7–the stock looks like a value. But it’s still priced at 2.41 times to meltdown value of its assets.

Success with Amazon, which would likely lead to a broadening of the geographic relationship with the e-commerce giant as well as more attention that could lead to new relationships with Internet retailers, may provide justification for a higher buy-under target in lieu of a dividend increase.

For now, however, our buy-under target for TransForce remains USD17.

Aggressive Agility

It was more or less business as usual for longtime Aggressive Holding ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF), which was a charter member of the CE Portfolio as ARC Energy Trust back in July 2004.

ARC reported a 12 percent year-over-year increase in first-quarter 2013 funds from operations to CAD202.4 million, or CAD0.65 per share from CAD180.7 million, or CAD0.62, paced by a 26.2 percent increase in realized natural gas prices.

Management maintained the CAD0.10 per share level for dividends to be paid in June, July and August. The payout ratio for the quarter, based on funds from operations, was 45.8 percent. The coverage ratio was 2.18-to-1.

Overall production ticked up by 0.5 percent to 95,472 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 94,970 a year ago. Crude and liquids output drove production gains, while natural gas was slightly lower at 348.6 million cubic feet per day versus 353 million a year ago.

But ARC’s gas fetched USD3.37 per thousand cubic feet, up from USD2.67 a year ago, while realized oil and liquids ticked down to USD83 from USD87.24 and to USD37.48 from USD44.46, respectively.

Natural gas was 61 percent of production during the period, but management’s focus remains on exploiting oil and liquids opportunities given the relative strength of pricing.

Overall production was up due to solid well performance at the Pembina and Ante Creek projects and excellent run time at the Dawson gas plant.  ARC spent CAD232.4 million in the first quarter of 2013 and drilled 60 gross (56 net) wells on operated lands (53 oil wells, two liquids-rich gas wells and five natural gas wells).

ARC’s first quarter 2013 capital program focused on oil and liquids development at Ante Creek, Pembina, Goodlands, Tower and on various oil properties throughout southeast Saskatchewan.

ARC’s focus on oil and liquids development, which started in 2011, has resulted in crude oil and liquids production reaching 37,368 barrels per day, or 39 percent of total production,  a 3 percent increase relative to the first quarter of 2012.

Production from new oil and liquids-rich gas wells drilled, predominantly at Pembina, Goodlands, Tower and Ante Creek, contributed to higher liquids production during the first three months of 2013.

ARC expects second- and third-quarter 2013 production to decrease relative to first-quarter levels due to planned downtime for spring breakup and maintenance activities.  And heavy snowfall in southeast Saskatchewan and Manitoba during the first quarter of 2013 may result in restricted access to properties and potential delayed development activities during the second quarter due to wet conditions and the potential for flooding.

ARC’s balance sheet remains strong, with available credit facilities of CAD2 billion and debt of CAD802.4 million drawn. Accounting for a CAD52.7 million working capital deficit, ARC had available credit of approximately CAD1.1 billion.

Net debt-to-annualized funds from operations was 1.0 times, and net debt was approximately 9 percent total capitalization at the end of the first quarter. ARC has approximately CAD40 million of debt principal coming due over the next 12 months, which management intends to finance via its existing credit facility.

ARC Resources remains a solid buy on dips to USD26.

Vermilion Energy Inc (NYSE: VET, NYSE: VET) reported yet another solid set of financial and operating numbers, demonstrating once again the value of its exposure to Brent crude pricing as well as the soundness of management’s approach to capital management.

Vermilion reported average production of 38,707 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) during the first quarter of 2013, up from 36,265 boe/d in the fourth quarter of 2012. Sequential growth was primarily attributable to strong Canadian and European production volumes, partially offset by decreased Australia production due to drilling activities and cyclone downtime.

First-quarter fund from operations were CAD163.6 million, or CAD1.65 per share, in the first quarter of 2013, up 15 percent from CAD141.7 million, or CAD1.43 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2012 and up 8 percent from CAD151.1 million, or CAD1.56 per share, in the first quarter of 2012.

Funds from operations covered the CAD0.59 per share in total dividends paid during the quarter at a ratio of 2.79-to-1, the equivalent of a payout ratio of 35.7 percent.

First-quarter fund flows were positively impacted by inventory draws in France and Australia of approximately 141,000 and 103,000 barrels, respectively, accounting for part of the increase.

Vermilion continues to benefit from strong pricing, driven by significant exposure to Brent crude and high-netback European gas. Brent crude, which represents 40 percent of production, averaged a USD18.18 per barrel premium to West Texas Intermediate and a USD25.13 per barrel premium to the Edmonton Sweet index during the first quarter.

Vermilion’s natural gas production in the Netherlands, which represents approximately 16 percent of production, received an average price of CAD10.09 per thousand cubic feet during the first quarter, significantly higher than North American benchmarks.

Management reported continued production growth in its Cardium light oil play in Western Canada. Vermilion has boosted Cardium-related production from approximately 1,000 boe/d in 2010 to more than 8,400 boe/d during the first quarter of 2013. The company drilled 20.1 net Cardium wells and completed 24.

Vermilion also started up horizontal development with the drilling of two gross wells in the Mannville liquids-rich gas play in the Drayton Valley area in west central Alberta, and it added to its position in the Duvernay liquids-rich natural gas resource play with the acquisition of an additional 21.75 net sections. Vermilion’s total land position in the Durvenay is now 272 net sections.

Management also reported good progress on the Corrib project in Ireland, with first gas anticipated in late 2014 or early 2015. Corrib is on track to reach peak production levels in mid-2015.

Vermilion boosted the low end of its 2013 production guidance, making the new range 39,500 to 40,500 boe/d versus 39,000 to 40,500 previously.

In late 2012 management announced a 5.3 percent increase in Vermilion’s monthly dividend to CAD0.20 per share, which became effective with the January 2013 dividend paid on Feb. 15, 2013.

Vermilion also began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on March 12, 2013, under the ticker symbol VET. This move will likely help broaden the shareholder base and provide additional liquidity. Vermilion Energy, which is yielding 4.7 percent at current levels, is a strong buy under USD52.

The best news from PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF) this week is that management once again stated that it intends to maintain the current dividend rate of CAD0.08 per month; that’s CAD0.96 per share on an annualized basis, good for a yield of 11.2 percent at current levels.

First quarter 2013 average production was up 4 percent sequentially and 5 percent year over year to 49,078 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), with 82 percent of output light oil and liquids. The majority of production growth came from PetroBakken’s West Pembina projects run by the company’s Cardium business unit.

An active drilling program focused on the Bakken and Cardium units, as PetroBakken drilled 53 wells, placed 41 wells on production and exited the quarter with an inventory of 30 wells waiting to be brought on-stream.

Management reported an operating netback of CAD49.79 per barrel of oil equivalent, a 6 percent decline compared to the first quarter of 2012 due to lower North American oil prices.

Funds flow from operations were CAD177 million, or CAD0.92 per share, a 5 percent sequential increase due to higher production and increased operating netback. First-quarter funds flow was off by 5 percent compared to the year-ago quarter due to comparatively lower realized operating netback.

The payout ratio for the period, based on total dividends of CAD0.24 per share, was 26.6 percent, with a coverage ratio of 3.76-to-1. The “cash” payout ratio–which takes account of the impact of the company’s dividend reinvestment plan–was just 19 percent.

Management reported operating costs of CAD12.60 per barrel of oil equivalent, essentially flat compared to the first quarter of 2012.

Capital expenditures were lower by 18 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 to CAD302 million, but that figure was 46 percent higher than the year-ago period.

Management’s plan is to deploy capital “proportionately between the first and second half of the year; spending will be lower during the second quarter due to the spring breakup period in the Great White North.

Management expects 2013 production to average 46,000 to 48,000 boe/d, with an exit rate of 49,000 to 52,000 boe/d; actual 2012 average production was 46,772 boe/d. Funds flow guidance is CAD645 million to CAD680 million, or CAD3.30 to CAD3.50 per share.

As of March 31, 2013, PetroBakken had CAD1.1 billion of bank debt drawn on its CAD1.4 billion credit facility. In April 2013 the maturity on this facility was extended by a year to June 2016. The next key maturity is USD900 million of senior unsecured notes outstanding that bear interest at a rate of 8.625 percent and mature on Feb. 1, 2020.

Net debt-to-cash flow is still a concern at greater than three times, but the extension of the maturity date on the credit facility provides some relief. Management is looking to sell non-core assets to provide even more liquidity.

Key for sustaining the dividend at the current rate will be the direction of oil prices and differentials over the course of the year. Cutting a dividend can, of course, is another potential source of liquidity. But management noted that it plans to keep the current rate unchanged in 2013, provided its crude oil assumptions are met.

PetroBakken–the most leveraged to commodity-price moves among energy-focused Portfolio Holdings–is a buy under USD15 for aggressive investors only.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–May 2013 Portfolio Update
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–May 14 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR, OTC: CDPYF)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–May 15 (estimate)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–May 14 (confirmed)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–May 8 (estimate)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR, OTC: NPRUF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF)–May 3 (confirmed)
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–May 2013 Portfolio Update
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–May 9 (estimate)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–May 2013 Portfolio Update

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–May 10 (confirmed)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–May 2013 Portfolio Update
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–May 15 (confirmed)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–May 2013 Portfolio Update
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–May 10 (confirmed)
  • Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–May 10 (estimate)
  • Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–May 17 (estimate)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–May 2 (after market close, confirmed)
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–May 15 (confirmed)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–May 2013 Portfolio Update
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–May 9 (estimate)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, NYSE: VET)–May 2013 Portfolio Update
  • Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–May 8 (estimate)

Stock Talk

Henry Nanninga Ii

Henry Nanninga Ii

No comment on PEN WEST’S(PWE) recent earnings report, and the fact that the company was not reducing its dividend, as some expected…….HN

Investing Daily Service

Investing Daily Service

HI Henry:

Penn West is still considered a hold. A link to the original reason is available below.

http://www.canadianedge.com/canadian-edge/articles/8300/canadas-oil-discount-opportunity-and-risk/

Allan Lynch

Allan Lynch

any comment this month on Just energy JE

Richard Stavros

Ari Charney

Dear Mr. Lynch,

We listed the latest analyst sentiment for Just Energy in our Bay Street Beat roundup. Among analysts that cover the company, Just Energy currently has one “buy,” three “holds,” and three “sells.” The consensus 12-month price target is CAD7.08.

Aside from that, we’re waiting to analyze the numbers in the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter (ended March 31) and full-year 2013 earnings report, which is scheduled for release on May 16.

Best regards,
Ari Charney

Michael J Sheehan

Michael J Sheehan

any opinion on at results

Richard Stavros

Ari Charney

Thus far, at least, Atlantic Power appears to be meeting the criteria we laid out in early March for maintaining our “hold” rating.

The company has been aggressively deleveraging its debt and divesting its portfolio of underperforming projects, with the sales of its Path 15 transmission line in California (including the transfer to the buyer of that project’s $137.2 million in debt), as well as the three Florida plants. Those sales netted proceeds of $173 million in cash.

In fact, the Florida Project sale slightly exceeded the company’s initial estimate of proceeds, which was originally $111 million vs. the $117 million the company actually received at close. That along with the sale of the Path 15 transmission line fulfilled two of our five criteria for maintaining our “hold” rating.

Atlantic Power also syndicated its tax equity investment in its Canadian Hills wind project, which netted another $42 million in cash. That fulfills the third of our aforementioned five criteria.

From these sales, Atlantic Power received a total of $215 million in net proceeds, of which it used $64 million to pay off its credit revolver.

That leaves about $151 million in cash to redeploy toward new growth projects, which the company plans to begin investing in during the second half of the year. Additionally, the company has $210 million to $225 million available from its credit revolver.

Among the types of investments management is considering are natural gas and renewables projects already generating cash flows and renewables projects in late-stage development that will be accretive once they commence commercial operation.

Additionally, the company has an agreement in place to sell its Gregory assets in Texas by the end of the third quarter, with expected net proceeds of $33 million. It also expects to receive $9 million in net proceeds from the sale of the Delta-Person generating station during the third quarter. So altogether, another $42 million in cash for growth investments should be forthcoming.

Equally important, these sales also significantly extended the average duration of Atlantic Power’s purchase power agreements to 11.5 years from 7.2 years, with just 17 percent of its portfolio slated for contract expirations over the next five years. That should increase the stability of the company’s cash flow and support the dividend.

Management also reaffirmed its forecast for full-year 2013 project adjusted EBITDA of $250 million to $275 million, as well as its payout ratio range of 65 percent to 75 percent.

For the first quarter, the payout ratio was actually 38 percent, though almost 40 percent of the $66 million in cash available for distribution included contributions from operations that have since been discontinued.

Still, the latter fulfilled the fourth of our five criteria. However, one concern is that the payout ratio is projected to rise to 75 percent to 85 percent in 2014 once cash flow from discontinued operations falls off.

But absent the contributions from discontinued operations, the company’s payout ratio for 2013 would be 100 percent, which mirrors the payout ratio in 2012. That means management really needs to get rolling on finding new projects that are immediately accretive to cash flow, while continuing to make progress getting newer projects up and running.

As far as growth goes, the results for the quarter were promising. Atlantic Power beat analysts’ top-line estimate by almost 15 percent, and the stock jumped 14.2 percent in response. Operating cash flow rose 11.4 percent year over year, primarily due to new projects such as the Canadian Hills and Meadow Creek wind projects.

Although progress was made with recent projects, such as the commencement of commercial operation for the company’s 53.5 megawatt Piedmont Green Power biomass project in Georgia, no new projects were announced, which was our fifth criterion. As mentioned earlier, these investments will likely take place during the second half of the year.

There was some reassuring activity on the insider front. Three insiders, including the chairman of the board, bought just over $143,000 worth of shares in the open market from March 18 through April 10. These were the only such purchases since August 2011. Though insider purchases are occasionally done for public relations purposes, that sum is substantial enough to suggest that they believe the stock has bottomed and the company is poised for growth.

Bay Street’s response was relatively muted. Two analysts reiterated their “hold” ratings and price targets, while the rest have yet to revisit their advice. The overall ratings mix is seven “holds” and one “sell,” with the consensus 12-month price target at CAD6.09, which is 11.1 percent higher than today’s close.

Guest User

Guest User

Having previously for years been recommended at 15$ or so, is IBG now becoming a penny stock? How far down can this thing go!? Is it heading to nonexistence like YLO?

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hello,

By now, I’m assuming you’ve seen the Flash Alert that David sent out on Friday. If not, here’s a link:
http://www.canadianedge.com/canadian-edge/alerts/17435/51713-sell-ibi-group/

Best regards,
Ari Charney

Philip S.

Philip S.

According to some of the information I have been receiving, there is a shortage of the means of delivering and processing Natural Gas to consumers, mainly in the Northeast U.S., but to some extent elsewhere as well. As the industry turned from absent pipelines to railroad shipment, I have been wondering if some companies were stepping in to build the missing pipelines. Since the original analysis, I have seen no information on the building of new pipe lines.
This will have an enormous effect on the price of NG, since fracking can increase the supply rapidly and delivery of NG could drain off the glut of NG on the market. Also mixed in this pot is the long delay in building liquid NG terminals for shipment of gas to Europe. The pipelines are now the short term key to NG. Is anyone tracking the building of new pipelines ???

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hello,

Your comment partially inspired my latest article. Though I focused on pipelines for crude oil, I think much of what I discussed likely applies to natural gas pipelines as well, at least as far as Canada goes:
http://www.canadianedge.com/canadian-edge/articles/17468/canadian-pipeline-companies-the-unlikely-cultural-ambassadors/

Also, I’ve previously detailed where things stand with regard to Canada’s major LNG export terminal projects:
http://www.canadianedge.com/canadian-edge/articles/8264/canada-continues-its-pivot-toward-asia/

Best regards,
Ari Charney

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