Q2 Earnings Look Strong

In case you haven’t had a chance to read the stock updates from each of the weekly Small-Cap All Stars articles, I have aggregated them all below for your convenience.

Value Portfolio

Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR) reported a drop in both earnings and revenues for the second quarter, but on July 25th the stock jumped an astounding 16.7% anyway. The reason? The numbers were better than analyst expectations and CEO Gary Kolstad stated that he was optimistic that business was getting better:

In the latter part of the quarter, we experienced increased demand for ceramic proppants and improved margins. There continues to be excess capacity of low quality Chinese ceramic proppant in the market. However, we believe inventories of this low quality Chinese ceramic proppant appear to be shrinking.

While the first half of 2013 was difficult, we believe the second half has the potential to be better.  Coming out of the second quarter of 2013, we witnessed improving trends in volumes and margins. Pricing pressures are still evident in today’s market, but increased ceramic volumes coupled with successful execution on cost reduction initiatives could lead to improved sequential margins. 

Earlier, the company increased its annual dividend by 11 percent, marking the 13th consecutive year it has increased its dividend. Such a healthy double-digit dividend increase is a positive signal that the company is primed to outperform the overall stock market in coming years. Commenting on the dividend increase, CEO Gary Kolstad stated:

The increase by the Board of Directors reflects their confidence in the long-term prospects for CARBO and highlights a focus on delivering value for our shareholders.

Diamond Hill Investment Group (Nasdaq: DHIL) rose 5.2% on July 17th in response to a very-positive portfolio manager conference call. Virtually all of the firm’s mutual funds are beating their benchmarks in 2013. The outlook for the U.S. economy is bullish, with deleveraging in the private sector largely complete, leaving more capital available for capital investment and economic growth rather than simply debt repayment. CEO Ric Dillon is bullish on financials and bearish on consumer discretionary.

Asset managers are proxies for the stock market and do very well in bull markets. Rising stock prices increase assets under management (AUM), as do cash inflows from bullish investors. The more AUM, the larger the management fees collected. Diamond Hill’s commitment to the value-investing principles of Warren Buffett and Ben Graham continues to bear fruit.

Fresh Del Monte Produce (NYSE: FDP) and Pinnacle Foods are in talks to acquire the canned food business from privately-owned Del Monte Foods. The deal price is rumored to be $1.5 billion, which is much lower than the $5.3 billion paid by private-equity firms when they acquired Del Monte Foods in 2011. If Fresh Del Monte were to successfully pull off this acquisition, it would go a long way to restoring the Del Monte brand to a single owner for the first time since the two Del Monte companies were split in 1989. Trademark litigation has been a constant distraction between the two Del Monte companies, so unifying the brand would eliminate costly litigation and improve management’s focus.

FutureFuel (NYSE: FF) was the subject of a very positive article on Seeking Alpha. Similar to my earlier analysis, the author likes the company’s debt-free balance sheet, its specialty-chemicals division servicing blue-chip companies like Procter & Gamble, and its biofuels division which should benefit for the foreseeable future from Obama-supported green-energy subsidies.

Gentex (Nasdaq: GNTX) reported solid second-quarter financial results that beat analyst estimates for both earnings and revenues. In addition, the company guided third-quarter results above expectations, which prompted Zacks to upgrade the stock to its top short-term rating of “1 – strong buy.” Despite all these positives, the stock sold off 5.7% on the news. Analysts at JP Morgan speculate that the selloff was due to a “lack of transparency”:

Despite stronger guidance in these respects, investors we spoke to were concerned about a perceived reduction in transparency going forward, with management electing to no longer release precise average selling price data going forward and to not disclose the y/y trend in SmartBeam or rear camera display (RCD) shipments – performance metrics investors had once deemed critical.

In any event, Jefferies is positive on the auto industry, both manufacturers and component suppliers, and raised its price target on Gentex.

On July 18, Gentex announced it was acquiring Johnson Controls’ (JCI) HomeLink division for $700 million. The deal is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings and should close by September 30th. HomeLink is a vehicle-based control system that enables drivers to remotely activate garage door openers, entry door locks, home lighting, security systems, and entry gates. The HomeLink system has been integrated into Gentex’ rearview mirrors for 10 years, so the acquisition should be smooth. To fund the acquisition, Gentex will issue $300 million in debt — its first indebtedness in a “very, very long time.” Analysts are positive on the deal, saying that it will diversify Gentex’s revenue stream and make the company less cyclical. A strong balance sheet and healthy cash flow will enable the company to repay the debt easily over time. Some investors may be upset that the acquisition will eliminate the company’s ability to repurchase shares, but allocating capital to an acquisition may enhance shareholder value more over time.

Lastly, earlier reports that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) had committed to issuing final rules for rearview camera displays by September 2013 have proven to be inaccurate. In a June 20th letter to Congress, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood announced that final rules would not occur until as late as January 2015. This unfortunate fifth regulatory delay has a muted impact on Gentex because some major car manufacturers have already announced their intention to install the displays in the console rather than in the rearview mirrors manufactured by Gentex.

 

Momentum Portfolio

HomeAway (Nasdaq: AWAY) reported excellent second-quarter financial results, with revenues up a strong 20.9% and adjusted earnings per share up an even-stronger 45.5%.  Both figures beat analyst estimates. The company also raised its revenue guidance for full-year 2013.

The one disappointing metric was paid listings growth, which rose only 10% compared to the company’s growth goal of 15%. Still, analysts remain very positive on the company’s future, with William Blair projecting a 25% price rise for the stock over the next 12 months.

Earlier, the company was the subject of a very positive article in IBD. The vacation rental company is experiencing strong growth by acquiring competitors.

PriceSmart (Nasdaq: PSMT) released third-quarter financials that were a mixed bag, beating analyst estimates on revenues but missing on earnings. Regardless of estimates, the Latin American warehouse club continues to grow strongly with earnings (17.3%), revenues (13.1%), and membership accounts (12.0%) all up double-digits. In the July 11th conference call, PriceSmart CEO Jose Luis Laparte blamed the $0.03 per share earnings shortfall on retail price reductions (to compensate for higher membership fees) and currency devaluations in Honduras, Jamaica, and Columbia. The membership renewal rate – despite a recent $5-per-year increase in the membership fee to $35 – remains very high at 84%. Although the stock price dipped on the earnings news, let’s not forget that the stock hit an all-time high on July 9th and technically remains in a bullish chart pattern. The company’s growth potential remains huge, with near-term optimism focused on Columbia, where PriceSmart has opened three stores but could open many more. According to Benchmark Capital:

We believe the Colombian market could support at least 10 clubs, and possibly mid-teens, providing years of store growth.

Brazil also offers PriceSmart tremendous growth potential, but Brazil is such a mess right now it is probably best that PriceSmart has not wasted resources gaining a foothold in the country yet.

Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN) is expected to grow second-quarter earnings and revenues 219% and 145%, respectively, yet the stock trades at a relatively-modest trailing P/E ratio of only 30. Both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo recently indicated their intent to sell off mortgage servicing rights (MSRs). This is music to the ears of Ocwen and other mortgage servicers, which generate solid profits from collecting MSR fees. With future stock-price appreciation for Ocwen likely, I can’t imagine not owning this stock!

Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) is enjoying a “summer boom” of exports. According to Reuters:

Refiners, enjoying bumper profit margins on export sales, are running their hardest since 2005, drawing down U.S. crude inventories at the fastest rate on record.

Saudi Arabia is getting worried that it is losing crude oil market share to the U.S., which is good news for U.S. refiners. The greater supply of crude available in the U.S. means cheaper feedstock prices and larger volumes of refined product U.S. refiners can export to the world.

On July 25th, Western Refining announced that it has filed a registration statement with the SEC to spin-off its pipeline assets into a master limited partnership called Western Refining Logistics L.P. The ticker symbol for the MLP will be WNRL.

Refining stocks have tread water in the wake of narrowing crack spreads, both between gasoline and crude oil and between WTI and Brent. Nevertheless, I remain positive on the refiner’s prospects for reasons outlined in my July 4th discussion-board post. One oil executive (Joe Petrowski) predicts crude oil will fall to $50 per barrel by the end of 2013, which would be great for refiners because it would significantly lower the cost of the feedstock used to produce gasoline and diesel. Importantly, Petrowski’s price forecast is based on increased supply rather than reduced demand. If demand for gasoline remains high while the price of crude oil falls, the profit margins for refiners should remain robust.

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