Consumer Services: Crown Resorts Ltd

Crown Resorts Ltd (ASX: CWN, OTC: CWLDF, ADR: CWLDY), until a name change approved by shareholders at this month’s annual general meeting known simply as Crown Ltd, is well placed to benefit from not only a revival of consumer sentiment in Australia but the emergence of a middle class on China as well.

Crown operates and manages gaming and entertainment facilities, bars, restaurants, nightclubs cinemas and retail outlets. It also develops hotels and conference facilities.

Crown’s assets in Melbourne and Perth continue to deliver solid and relatively defensive earnings. These assets are the company’s main cash flow generators, and there is some concentration risk.

Crown’s 33.7 percent stake in Macau-based Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (Hong Kong: 6883, NSDQ: MPEL) represents a growth opportunity, and future dividend flows from Melco Crown will bring some diversification.

Crown’s two established casinos–the Crown Melbourne in Victoria and the Crown Perth in Western Australia–have long histories of stable cash generation, with demonstrated resilience during economic downturns.

This ability to endure global macro volatility is in part a reflection of relatively stable and predictable local markets. Stable cash generation also reflects Crown’s position as the sole licensed casino operator in the respective regions.

Stability has been supported by substantial expansion and upgrade efforts at both properties, with combined capital expenditure of approximately AUD1.8 billion from fiscal 2009 through fiscal 2013.

We’re adding Crown Resorts to the AE Portfolio Aggressive Holdings based on its solid cash flow from Australia and the long-term potential of its opportunity to serve Asia’s rapidly emerging middle class.

Crown’s main floor gaming (MFG) operations represent more than 50 percent of revenue. From fiscal 2009 through fiscal 2013 MFG at Melbourne and Perth grew at average rates of 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

CAPEX is expected to remain substantial over the next three years, with the lion’s share of a total of approximately AUD890 million earmarked for construction of the new Crown Towers Perth.

Planned expansion and maintenance CAPEX across both Melbourne and Perth will account for the remainder. This is less than that the AUD1.1 billion over the previous three fiscal years due to completion of upgrades at Crown Melbourne.

During the same annual general meeting that resulted in the name change CEO James Packer advised shareholders that Crown’s dividend will remain at the current AUD0.37 annualized rate for the next four to five years as the company focuses free cash flow on expansion and the upgrade of existing facilities.

Main gaming floor revenue–excluding VIP program play–across Crown Melbourne and Crown Perth during the first 17 weeks of fiscal 2014 was in line with the prior corresponding period, while non-gaming revenue increased by 10 percent.

The impact of refurbishment on the main gaming floor at Crown Melbourne, the temporary loss of car parking spaces at Crown Perth and general softness in consumer sentiment have all impacted current trading. The level of VIP program play activity improved from the levels experienced in the second half of last financial year.

Macau, meanwhile, is the largest gaming market in the world in terms of revenue, and it continues to grow at a solid clip.

Macau is one of the two Special Administrative Regions of the People’s Republic of China, the other being Hong Kong. It’s on the western side of the Pearl River Delta, across from Hong Kong to the east, bordered by Guangdong Province to the north and facing the South China Sea to the east and south.

Over 100,000 Mainland Chinese gamble every day in 44 Macau casinos, and the number of visits is growing 10 percent to 20 percent per year. China’s broadening affluence and improved infrastructure allow people who’ve never before had either the money or the access to go to Macau via high-speed rail links.

The size of the average bet is also climbing, from just over USD50 in 2012 to approximately USD120 as of September 2013, driving 30 percent to 40 percent revenue growth. The average bet in Las Vegas, by comparison, has been between USD10 and USD20 for the past five years.

Melco Crown derives roughly two-thirds of its property-level earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) from the mass-market segment, which also demonstrates more consistent EBITDA margin. Mass-market revenue is also less reliant on macro credit policies and will benefit from infrastructure improvements.

Melco, which is strong in the top end of the mass segment, will have its second property up and running by 2015.

Crown’s Australian properties also stand to benefit from China’s rising prosperity, as 110,100 Chinese visited the Land Down Under in February 2013, more than double the 42,600 who arrived in all of 1995. And China is now the No. 1 source of tourism revenue for Australia.

Crown is expanding its domestic presence. In early November the New South Wales state government granted final approval for the construction of a AUD1.3 billion complex that will include both a VIP casino and a state-of-the-art hotel complex on Sydney Harbor.

Crown Sydney, which will be operational in November 2019, will have 350 hotel rooms and suites, 80 luxury apartments and restaurants, bars and conference rooms.

Crown is also developing a USD400 million resort in Sri Lanka, while Melco Crown is building a casino resort in The Philippines.

Melco Crown also plans to pay a dividend in 2014 that will help Crown pay for its local projects from a mixture of debt and retained earnings. Net debt will rise because of Crown’s ambitious CAPEX plans, but Mr. Packer is looking to grow the business based on “a strong belief in the incredible power of the rising Chinese and Asian middle class.”

Crown has outperformed the S&P/Australian Securities Exchange 200 Index’ 20 percent gain in 2013 with a total return from Dec. 31, 2012, through Nov. 14 in Australian dollar terms of 58.3 percent. In US dollar terms Crown is up 42.2 percent, including dividends, versus 7.8 percent for the domestic benchmark, 27.7 percent for the S&P 500 Index and 22.5 percent for the MSCI World Index.

But there’s still long-term upside for the stock. The combination of a strong cost performance in Australia and ongoing strength in Macau will result in strong earnings growth in fiscal 2014.

Development work at home and in key Asian markets will drive new revenue in the years to come, as disposable incomes for Chinese rise and the Middle Kingdom’s consumers look for ways to explore their leisure.

Crown is vulnerable to a downturn in global consumer spending due to weaker-than-expected macroeconomic conditions in Melbourne, Perth and Macau.

There are also ever-present threats of potential adverse changes in the regulatory environments in Australia and/or Macau as well as of new competition in its key markets.

With several projects in development there are potential unforeseen construction-related events that could impact costs and earnings and therefore investor sentiment and the share price.

But a solid track record of project execution and performance through difficult global circumstances suggests a solid risk-return proposition.

Crown Resorts is a buy all the way up to USD16.50 on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) using the symbol CWN and on the US over-the-counter (OTC) market using the symbol CWLDF.

Crown Resorts also trades on the US OTC market as an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) under the symbol CWLDY. Crown Resorts’ ADR, which is worth two ordinary, ASX-listed shares, is also a buy under USD33.

Crown Resorts closed at AUD16.442 on the ASX on Nov. 14. Based on the prevailing exchange rate as of this writing, that’s USD15.31 in US dollar terms.

Crown Resorts’ fiscal year runs from Jul. 1 to Jun. 30. The company reports full financial and operating results twice a year; it typically posts first-half results in late February, with full fiscal year numbers out in late August.

Interim dividends are usually declared in February, along with financial and operating results for the first half of the fiscal year, with payment typically made in mid-April. Final dividends are usually declared in August, along with fiscal year results, with payment made in mid-October.

Crown’s final dividend in respect of fiscal 2013 of AUD0.19 was declared on Aug. 23, 2013, and paid on Oct. 11 to shareholders of record as of Sept. 27. Shares traded ex-dividend on this declaration as of Sept. 23.

The most recent interim dividend of AUD0.18 per share was declared Feb. 22, 2013. It was paid April 16, 2013, to shareholders of record as of March 28. Shares traded ex-dividend on this declaration as of March 22.

Management will declare the interim dividend for fiscal 2014 on or about Feb. 21, 2014, when it reports financial and operating results for the first six months of the financial year.

Dividends paid by Crown Resorts are “qualified” for US tax purposes. Based on the “fiscal cliff” compromise reached in Washington, DC, in early January 2013 dividends will be taxed at Bush-era rates of 5 percent to 15 percent for investors’ first USD450,000 a year of income for couples and USD400,000 for single filers. Above that the maximum tax rate is 20 percent.

The Australian government withholds 5 percent to 15 percent, based on the US-Australia tax treaty on double taxation. The two countries have not taken the step of eliminating withholding from dividends paid in respect of shares held in a US IRA, as have the US and Canada.

Among the analysts who cover the stock 11 rate it a “buy” according to Bloomberg’s standardization of brokerage house recommendation terminology, while two rate it a “hold.” No brokerages that cover Crown Resorts rate the stock a “sell.”

The average 12-month target price between the 11 analysts that provide a figure is AUD17.45, with a high of AUD19.35 and a low of AUD13.07.  Based on a Nov. 14, 2013, closing price of AUD16.44 on the ASX, the implied one-year total return, including the present annualized dividend rate of AUD0.37 per share, is 8.4 percent.

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