Aggressive on the Boards

Shares of Norbord Inc (TSX: NBD, OTC: NBRXF) rallied hard in the immediate aftermath of management’s release of second-quarter financial and operating numbers and CEO Peter Wijnbergen positive commentary in the news release and on the subsequent conference call to discuss results.

But after peaking on that bounce on July 31 it’s been a steep slide down for Norbord, which makes oriented strand board (OSB) for the home construction industry. That’s actually a resumption of a downtrend since the shares hit a post-Great Financial Crisis high of CAD33.86 on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) on Dec. 31, 2013.

Norbord is down nearly 38 percent in US dollar terms, including dividends, in 2014.

For the three months ended June 30 Norbord posted net earnings of CAD11 million, or CAD0.20 per share, compared with CAD53 million, or CAD0.99 per share, for the second quarter of 2013. Sales were down to CAD311 million from CAD365 million a year earlier.

Mr. Wijnbergen noted that North American homebuilding activity continues to improve, though the pace has been held back by labor availability and a lack of entry-level buyers.

OSB prices, however, were “disappointing.”

Demand from Norbord’s key customers in all core segments–new home construction, home improvement and industrial–continues to grow, driving a 10 percent increase in shipments so far in 2014. And OSB cash production costs are declining due to improved productivity and lower raw material usages.

North American OSB prices were relatively stable quarter over quarter, with the North Central benchmark averaging USD219 per thousand square feet. But that’s down from USD347 per thousand square feet a year ago.

OSB shipments in North America increased by 12 percent, as year-to-date US housing starts were up 6 percent and permits were up 5 percent.

European panel markets were a bit slower in the second quarter, reflecting a pullback from a particularly strong first quarter. Average panel prices were flat sequentially and up 2 percent year over year.

Norbord remains confident in the durability of the recovery, to the extent that it’s aggressively ramped up OSB production since 2013.

The uncertainty over when demand will catch up to the additional capacity–on top of the fact that Norbord’s CAD0.60 per share quarterly dividend represented 300 percent of second-quarter earnings–is the primary reason we’re adding the company to the Dividend Watch List this month.

Norbord declared a dividend of CAD0.60 per share in April 2013, nearly five years after it suspended its payout amid the Great Financial Crisis. The company struggled mightily in the aftermath of the US housing market crash, as did the stock price.

As aggressive as the company ramped up production last year, its reinstated dividend policy, though short of the CAD1 per share quarterly rate that prevailed pre-crisis, may have been a case of too much, too soon.

Norbord, now yielding 11.5 percent, remains a buy under USD30 for aggressive investors.

With oil and gas prices sliding since late June the small oil and gas producers under How They Rate coverage could seem some pressure, but those that have reported thus far have shown solid financial and operating numbers for the second quarter.

Any weakness, should the mini-trend for commodity prices extend much into the late summer and fall, would be revealed in third- and fourth-quarter numbers.

As always, because of this exposure to volatile oil and gas prices, dividends for all Oil and Gas names should be considered vulnerable.

Northland Power Inc (TSX: NPI, OTC: NPIFF), meanwhile, is off the Watch List after reporting another stellar set of financial and operating numbers.

Second-quarter revenue grew by 36.6 percent to CAD169.9 million, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were up 62.6 percent to CAD81.5 million.

Free cash flow was up 42.7 percent to CAD31.4 million. Dividends as a percentage of free cash flow declined to 93.3 percent from 108.1 percent in the second quarter of 2013, as management’s forecast that free cash flow would cover dividends by mid-2014 was realized.

Northland recently completed the acquisition of a 60 percent controlling interest in Project Gemini, a 600 megawatt (MW) offshore wind project located off the coast of the Netherlands in the North Sea, adding another asset to its growing portfolio.

The company’s 60 MW McLean’s wind project on Manitoulin Island, Ontario, went into operation on May 1, 2014. The project, operating under a 20-year power purchase agreement with the Ontario Power Authority under Ontario’s renewable energy Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) program, was completed on time and on budget.

And Northland started construction on the final remaining ground-mounted solar projects and completed CAD240 million of non-recourse project financing for its remaining unfinanced solar projects.

Management also raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast range for 2014 upward by CAD5 million to CAD350 million to CAD360 million. Northland is now a buy under USD16.

Here’s this month’s Dividend Watch List.

Argent Energy Trust (TSX: AET-U, OTC: ANGYF) pre-reported second-quarter production of 6,373 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), ahead of management’s guidance of 6,100 to 6,200 boe/d. And management boosted its third-quarter forecast to 6,400 to 6,500 boe/d from 6,100 to 6,200 boe/d and its full-year forecast to 6,200 to 6,300 boe/d from 6,000 boe/d. 2013 production was 5,591 boe/d.

Argent slashed its monthly distribution rate from CAD0.0875 (CAD1.05 on an annualized basis) to CAD0.02 (CAD0.24 per year) on April 10, 2014, citing “recent market activity resulting in a significantly lower unit price” and a corresponding “significant” change in the company’s “balanced financial structure.”

Management reported first-quarter funds from operations of CAD14.9 million, up from CAD13.6 million a year ago, as production grew by 21 percent to 6,390 boe/d. The new dividend rate represents 25 percent of first-quarter FFO per share. Sell.

Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT) reported a second-quarter project loss of USD3.8 million compared to project income of USD20.3 million a year ago, driven by a USD14.8 million non-cash impairment charge and USD27.1 million of negative non-cash changes in the fair value of derivative contracts.

Project adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) improved by 34.2 percent to USD75 million due to fewer outages, stronger wind and waste-heat results, better hydrology and a full quarter’s contribution from the Palmer project.

Management reported cash flow from operating activities of USD34 million compared to USD7.2 million a year ago. Free cash flow was negative USD15.1 million due to USD37.5 million of term loan facility repayments, partially offset by higher operating cash flows.

When we still held Atlantic in the CE Portfolio, following its February 2013 dividend cut we noted that the best possible outcome for shareholders was a sale to a larger, better-capitalized company with the wherewithal to absorb Atlantic’s debt and maximize cash flow from its still-attractive set of power-generation assets.

It appears management is thinking along similar lines, though of course no deal is assured, particularly as the company is looking at other moves as well. Sell.

Barrick Gold Corp (TSX: ABX, NYSE: ABX) reported an 18 percent slide in gold production, a 16.5 percent decline in gold sales volumes and an 8.6 percent decrease in realized gold prices for the second quarter. Copper production and sales volumes were down 50 percent and 45 percent, respectively.

Total revenue was down 24 percent, as Barrick reported a net loss of USD0.23 per share for the second quarter.

Barrick’s balance sheet is still shaky, burdened by CAD12.9 billion of debt against a market cap of CAD23 billion, with CAD605 million maturing between now and the end of 2016. Sell.

Capstone Infrastructure Corp (TSX: CSE, OTC: MCQPF) reported a 21.4 percent increase in first-quarter revenue, while adjusted funds from operations per share were up 14.9 percent to CAD0.207.

Management also finalized a new CAD60.5 million credit facility for the 24 megawatt (MW) Saint-Philemon wind farm and boosted capacity on its existing borrowing facility to CAD90 million from CAD50 million.

The key recent development is a new 20-year non-utility generator contract with the Ontario Power Authority for its 156 MW Cardinal combined-cycle, natural gas-fired facility. Management has asserted that the new power purchase agreement (PPA) “provides certainty…on Cardinal’s longevity and contribution to Capstone’s cash flow profile and dividend sustainability following 2014.”

Capstone’s payout ratio in 2015 and 2016 will likely exceed 100 percent of adjusted funds from operations, reflecting Cardinal’s reduced cash flow contribution starting in 2015. But management believes it has sufficient liquidity to fund its needs over this period, including cash and cash equivalents on hand, operating cash flows from its various businesses, and its corporate credit facility. Hold.

Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) reported a 0.4 percent increase in second-quarter sales to CAD347.2 million on strong met and fish sales and improved performance for its Eastern Quebec and Maritimes divisions. EBITDA were CAD9.5 million, or 2.7 percent of sales, versus CAD9.7 million, or 2.8 percent of sales, a year ago.

Cash flow for the first six months of 2014 was positive at CAD11.5 million versus a negative figure of CAD3.9 million for the prior corresponding period.

But cash flow was positive at CAD11.9 million, reversing a year-ago figure of negative CAD25.8 million. The CAD0.06 dividend per share represented 100 percent of reported earnings per share. Hold.

Crius Energy Trust (TSX: KWH-U, OTC: CRIUF) posted 49.2 percent growth in first-quarter revenue to USD177.6 million, but cost of sales was up 61.6 percent to USD158.1 million as gross margin shrank to USD19.1 million from USD20.9 million a year ago.

Management also reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of USD4.3 million.

On Feb. 10, 2014, management cut the monthly dividend rate by 30 percent from CAD0.0833 to CAD0.0583, attributing the decision to soaring costs of energy during a particularly cold first quarter in the markets it serves as well as slowing customer growth.

Management expects to maintain the new level throughout 2014. The board will review the dividend policy at year’s end, which suggests another cut from the present annualized rate of CAD0.70 is possible.

The market is clearly pricing in another dividend cut, with the yield on the stock–based on the reduced dividend rate–as of this writing at 15.1 percent. Hold.

Eagle Energy Trust (TSX: EGL-U, OTC: ENYTF) reported an 18 percent increase in first-quarter funds from operations to CAD10.3 million, or CAD0.32 per share.

Working interest sales volume was 3,010 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), weighted 85 percent to oil, up from 2013 average sales volume of 3,004 boe/d.

Management notes that it has “no current plans to reduce” distribution in aftermath of Argent’s 77.1 percent cut.

The small producer’s fortunes remain particularly tied to ups and downs of commodity prices. Hold.

FP Newspapers Inc (TSX: FP, OTC: FPNUF) reported first-quarter net earnings of CAD500,000, or CAD0.079 per share, down from CAD1 million, or CAD0.141 per share, a year ago.

FP Canadian Newspapers LP–FP Newspapers is entitled to 49 percent of distributable cash of the LP–reported print advertising revenue of CAD15.2 million, down 10.9 percent year over year. Display advertising color, the largest category, shrank by 15.8 percent to CAD9.5 million.

Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were down 29.5 percent to CAD3.1 million

Cash available for distribution for FP Newspapers was CAD400,000, or CAD0.062 per share, down from CAD1 million, or CAD0.149 per share, a year ago. The payout ratio for the period was 241.9 percent.

Management once again maintained the CAD0.05 dividend rate for the May payment due June 30. Sell.

Freehold Royalties Ltd (TSX: FRU, OTC: FRHLF) reported a 25 percent surge in first-quarter funds from operations per share to CAD0.45, even though average daily production from lands was down 5 percent. The payout ratio for the period was 93.3 percent.

The share price has pushed out to all-time highs in the aftermath of the highly successful PrairieSky Royalty Ltd (TSX: PSK, OTC: None) initial public offering (IPO) by EnCana Corp (TSX: ECA, NYSE: ECA), with the market expecting other exploration and production companies with significant land positions to follow EnCana’s path and monetize these assets. Freehold, with backing from major shareholder Canadian National Railway Co (TSX: CNR, NYSE: CNI) and its pension fund, could be an acquirer of more royalty lands.

The market is also building a higher floor for propositions such as Freehold’s. Hold.

GMP Capital Inc (TSX: GMP, GMPXF) posted a 31 percent increase in first-quarter revenue to CAD63.9 million. Adjusted net income surged to CAD5.4 million from CAD1.1 million a year ago, as the company put a little distance between it and a rough 2013.

Earnings per share of CAD0.07 compare to nil during the first quarter of 2013 Q1. Higher investment banking and trading activity are positives, as is a payout ratio of 71.4 percent. We’ll see how the second quarter shapes up. Sell.

Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp (TSX: LIF, OTC: LIFZF) reported second-quarter royalty income of CAD33.3 million, down from CAD41.7 million a year ago.

Adjusted cash flow was CAD33.7 million, or CAD0.53 per share, up from CAD23.4 million, or CAD0.37 per share, for the second quarter of 2013.

The higher cash flow reflected an Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC) dividend of CAD14.8 million, or CAD0.23 per share.

Net income was CAD35.9 million, or CAD0.56 per share, down from CAD39.2 million, or CAD0.61 per share, a year ago. Equity earnings from IOC were CAD18.2 million, or CAD0.28 per share, down slightly from CAD19.3 million, or CAD0.30 per share in 2013.

Production and sales continued to be affected by the unusually harsh winter conditions that lasted well into the quarter. The phase two expansion is now basically complete and should be reflected in the production results for the balance of the year.

June saw operating conditions return closer to normal, with concentrate production exceeding an annual rate of 18 million metric tons.

Lower royalty revenue for the quarter resulted from lower sales and lower prices. The iron ore index price for the quarter was 17.4 percent lower than the first quarter of 2014 and 22.2 percent lower than the second quarter of 2013. This was partially offset by the slightly lower value of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. Hold.

Liquor Stores NA Ltd’s (TSX: LIQ, OTC: LQSIF) turnaround efforts are driving up administrative costs at the same time management is trying to grow the business via the addition of new stores. Same-store sales growth in Canada and the US, meanwhile, was negative in the first quarter, suggesting the business model is not immune to the economic cycle.

And the payout ratio for the three months ended March 31, 2014, was negative.

There are no debt maturities before the end of 2015, though there are significant rollovers looming in 2016 and 2018, amounting to 70.3 percent of current market capitalization.

Liquor Stores earns Safety Rating points for its debt as a percentage of assets and its operation in a sector traditionally viewed as recession-resistant, alcohol. But there are serious signs of weakness here. Hold.

Norbord Inc’s (TSX: NBD, OTC: NBRXF) place on the Watch List is explained above. Buy under USD30.

Parallel Energy Trust (TSX: PLT-U, OTC: PEYTF) reported a 2.9 percent decline in first-quarter production to 6,607 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), though a 30.6 percent rise in its average realized price per boe drove a 33.8 percent increase in funds from operations. The payout ratio for the period was 70.3 percent.

Leverage remains a major concern for this small producer. Hold.

Precious Metals & Mining Trust’s (TSX: MMP-U, OTC: PMMTF) manager, Sentry Investments Inc, announced on June 27, 2013, that Precious Metals & Mining’s monthly cash distribution “will be changed” from CAD0.07 per unit to CAD0.035 per unit.

This 50 percent cut became effective with the Aug. 15, 2013, payment to unitholders of record on July 31, 2013, and will remain at this level until further guidance is provided by Sentry.

The Sentry board made the move “given the current environment for gold mining equities,” which comprise the bulk of Precious Metals & Mining’s portfolio.

The price of bullion increased more than five-fold from 2003 to 2011. But major gold mining companies generated little to no free cash flow. And they’re likely to generate negative free cash over the next several years. Sell.

Ten Peaks Coffee Company Inc (TSX: TPK, OTC: SWSSF) reported 9 percent growth in first-quarter processing volumes and an 81 percent surge in gross profit, but management noted that the benchmark coffee commodity price rose by 60 percent during the period, increasing from USD1.11 per pound at the beginning of January to USD1.78 per pound at the end of March.

The price spike led to significant unrealized losses on the coffee futures contracts the company uses to help manage commodity fluctuations.

Although losses on these derivatives are offset by corresponding gains in the market value of inventory, the gains cannot be recorded under international accounting standards until the inventory is sold.

The losses on derivative instruments during the quarter more than offset the increase in gross profit. As a result, Ten Peaks recorded a net loss of CAD700,000 and a year-over-year decline in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) during the period. Hold.

Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd’s (TSX: ZAR, OTC: ZARFF) first-quarter funds from operations per share were up 10.9 percent to CAD0.51, as realized oil and liquids and natural gas prices were up 21.1 percent and 72.1 percent, respectively, offsetting a production decline of 12.9 percent to 6,662 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The production trend, though it stems from asset sales, is worrisome, particularly for a relatively small company so susceptible to commodity-price movements.

Management maintained the CAD0.06 monthly dividend rate for payments in August, September and October, as the full-year payout ratio was just 35.3 percent. Hold.

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