Grain Gains and Hot Water Profits

Our Best Buys this month include a company that will reap profits from bumper crops around the world, and another that rejected a buyout bid but made a key acquisition of its own that could make a great company bigger and better.

Ag Growth International is an agribusiness specialist that makes equipment that moves and preserves grain, and which yields 5.5%. As the world reaps bountiful harvests this year, grain prices are sliding, but more grain and other ag commodities means more demand for the augers, conveyors, storage bins and conditioning equipment (aeration, dryers) that Ag Growth sells.

Ag Growth (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) doesn’t just cater to Canada’s vast expanses of corn (it’s the world’s 10th-largest producer) and wheat (ninth-largest producer), but also international business. And that segment is growing like a weed. Last year about 26% of Ag Growth’s sales came from overseas, up from 7% just four years earlier.

The Russia-Ukraine-Kazakhstan region accounts for most of foreign sales and most foreign sales growth. Russia alone is the world’s fourth-largest wheat producer and the world’s sixth-largest producer of all grains.

But Ag Growth’s biggest growth market may be Brazil, both because of that country’s potential to grow more and its need for more commodity-handling equipment. Brazil is the world’s number-one producer and exporter of orange juice, coffee and sugar. And it’s a top-three producer and exporter of soybeans and corn.

Brazil also has the most land suitable for crops, and unlike many countries, it has the water resources to bring that land into production. Brazilian crop yields still lag behind the more developed growing regions in the world, which also points to the country’s potential. All this productivity underscores its need for more grain-storage and grain-handling equipment.

The gap that companies such as Ag Growth can fill is wide: Brazil can use 57% more storage capacity than it currently has.

While Ag Growth only has a sales force in the Russian region, it has an assembly plant and a managing director in Brazil. So the company is in an even better position in Brazil than the Russian region to boost sales by about 50%.

Ag Growth’s international business is expanding even faster this year than last. In the first half of 2014, its sales plus outstanding orders in Latin America were about $11.6 million (U.S. dollars), versus total sales in 2013 of $2.4 million. And it has higher sales and committed business in Ukraine and the Asia-Pacific as well.

The rest of 2014 looks strong as well. Demand for on-farm grain handling, storage and aeration is high, and management expects strong sales in the second half of 2014 and into 2015.

Ag Growth is already bidding on projects in Brazil and thinks it could announce its first project win in early 2015.

Strong crop yields in North America and continued investment in ag equipment drove healthy demand for farm grain-handling and storage equipment. Ag Growth reported a 19.7% increase in second-quarter trade sales to a company record $100.8 million.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) grew by 38.9% to $20.8 million, also a company record. Earnings per share more than doubled to 88 cents. The payout ratio for the period was 61.2%, which means it can easily afford the generous dividend it pays.

The company’s diverse product line and foreign sales should bring more stability to its earnings. Grain storage, for example, is a year-round need. Also smoothing sales: Farms in the Southern and Northern hemispheres harvest crops on opposite sides of the calendar.

And the company’s focus on international sales should also add value by capturing larger, more industrial-scale grain-operations in lesser-served markets.

Ag Growth has industry-leading profit margins that should improve as it pioneers new products and new markets. And now is a good time to buy. The stock price’s 52-week high is $45.65 per share, and it currently trades around $39.

Ag Growth, a member of our Aggressive Holdings, is a buy under $44.

In July, EnerCare’s board of directors said no thanks to a buyout bid from its largest shareholder, Augustus Advisors LLC. EnerCare was worth more than the buyout price Augustus Advisors offered of $13.50 to $15 a share, the directors said.

We agree.

And later that month EnerCare (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF) announced a $493 million deal to buy Direct Energy Marketing Ltd. from Centrica Plc. It was EnerCare’s way of emphatically telling its shareholders that contrary to Augustus’s argument, present leadership is quite capable of generating good returns.

The Direct Energy deal should generate substantial additional earnings. According to management estimates, if EnerCare had owned Direct Energy in 2013, its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), and pro forma distributable cash would have been 25% and 87% higher, respectively. (The Direct Energy deal, which will reintegrate a unit that was separated from EnerCare in 2002, should close in the fourth quarter.)

EnerCare, a member of our Conservative Holdings, is in a specialized business. It rents water heaters and sub-metering equipment (devices that allow utilities to monitor energy and water usage for individual tenants) to more than 1 million homeowners, mainly in the Ontario area.

Not a sexy business, but it’s a steady one. That’s because the Ontario provincial government started a program more than 50 years ago to encourage homeowners to switch to natural gas water heaters. Rather than pay the full cost for a heater up front, a homeowner can rent the hardware from a company such as EnerCare and only pay a monthly lease rate. This is particularly popular in condos and apartment buildings.

EnerCare also earns a fee to service its equipment, generating revenue three different ways from the same piece of equipment—rental (the largest portion), metering and service.

The steady cash generated by the business allows EnerCare to pay a steady, fat dividend, currently 5.3%.

The Direct Energy transaction has the potential to transform EnerCare. Direct Energy not only sells and services home and small-business energy, air conditioning and plumbing systems, it owns natural gas wells and offers customers fixed-price electricity and gas plans. By buying Direct Energy, EnerCare gains more customers and more products and services to sell that fit with its existing business.

Fresh off the Direct Energy announcement, EnerCare reported solid second-quarter results. Revenue was up 3.4% to $66.34 million. Rental revenue was up 4.1% to $44.1 million, mainly due to a January 2014 rental rate increase. Submetering revenue grew by 2%.

The company has boosted its dividend five times Since January 2011. And with the acquisition management has laid the foundation for more increases.

EnerCare is a buy under $14.

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