Sector Spotlight: Financials/A-REITs: GPT Group

A real estate investment trust (REIT), whether it’s based in the US, Canada or Australia, is not a substitute for a corporate bond or government-backed paper.

Anything other than those types of fixed-income securities adds risk to your portfolio.

During this era of low interest rates, particularly in the aftermath of the Great Recession/Global Financial Crisis (GR/GFC), increasing numbers of investors, hungry for yield, have sought the relative safety of regular income streams supported by real assets.

But the sector has also seen its share of significant ups and precipitous downs, most recently in 2013, when the specter of rising interest rates precipitated a steep selloff in all yield-centric investments.

Indeed, a catastrophic downturn for the Australian flavor inspired a period of introspection that continues to unfold.

A-REIT management teams are now focused on strategies to enhance returns following a two-year period of strengthening balance sheets by restructuring debt and selling assets–especially assets held offshore–in the aftermath of the GR/GFC.

They continue to take advantage of historically low debt costs, diversifying their funding sources away from traditional banks, and to extend their average debt duration.

Most A-REITs are in a stronger financial position than they were entering the 2007-to-2009 period, though memories of their steep losses during the global recession and financial crisis continue to linger.

Falling debt costs support REIT performance both through a reduced interest cost and by potentially driving compression of capitalization rates.

And most A-REITs have gone back to basics by concentrating on clearly defined sectors of the market that complement their core competencies and generate reliable income streams, mainly from rentals.

Many A-REITs moved beyond the traditional passive income model to take on higher-risk investments, mainly in overseas properties, in the years leading up to the global meltdown.

In general, however, A-REITs are better capitalized, have more financing options, own higher-quality assets and have less risk exposure than they did five years ago.

That includes AE Portfolio Conservative Holding GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF), which boosted its 2014 earnings per share (EPS) growth forecast to 4 percent-plus from a prior target of 3 percent.

GPT’s price chart is as rocky as any A-REIT’s–or any real estate investment trust in Canada or the US, for that matter–over the past half-decade-plus.

During last year’s “Taper Tantrum” GPT slide from AUD4.15 on May 21, 2013, on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) to AUD3.40 on Dec. 31, 2013.

GPT has now pushed out to a new five-year high on the ASX of AUD4.21 as of Nov. 13, which probably confounds analysts that questioned the efficacy of the A-REIT’s plan to drive growth via the expansion of its funds management business.

The earnings upgrade was based on strong third-quarter results that were underpinned by transaction activity, improved retail sales growth at its shopping center and a strong uplift in leasing at its MLC Centre in Sydney, a solid sign of progress amid a “challenging” office leasing environment.

In the three months ended Sept. 30 GPT’s office division leased out 62,670 square meters of space, including signing tenants for 17,160 square meters of space at the MLC Centre, where 49 percent of the space  vacated by Herbert Smith Freehills has now been leased or is nearing agreement.

That’s a significant turnaround from the first six months of the year, when like-for-like income growth for the unit was negative 3.1 percent, predominantly due to vacancy at the MLC Centre, and validation of management’s investment of AUD7.5 million to reposition the property.

Excluding the MLC Centre first-half like-for-like growth would have been 1.5 percent.

GPT continues to see robust enquiry levels at the MLC Centre for the remaining office space and expects to make further progress on leasing in the coming period.

Overall office leasing activity resulted in an improved future lease expiry profile, and occupancy was up to 93.1 percent.

The weighted average lease expiration extended to 6.3 years as of June 30, up from 5.8 years as of Dec. 31, 2013.

The Retail unit recorded specialty sales growth of 4.3 percent compared to the prior corresponding period, a sign that weakness in retail trading over the past two years could be coming to an end.

Management noted that sales are now growing faster than rents, a positive balance for landlords and retailers.

The Retail portfolio posted first-half comparable income growth of 2.6 percent versus the prior corresponding period, driven by specialty sales growth of 3 percent. Occupancy as of June 30 was 99.5 percent.

During the quarter GPT spun off AUD376 million worth of office assets into a new listed real estate investment trust, the GPT Metro Office Fund, in a bid to grow its funds management business.

Funds under management (FUM) are up 29 percent during 2014 to AUD9.2 billion from AUD7.1 billion as of Dec. 31, 2013. Management’s short-term goal is to push FUM past AUD10 billion. The platform provides GPT with income via property management and development management fees.

The funds management division posted a 9.7 percent return during the first six months of the year.

GPT’s logistics portfolio posted a 16.2 percent increase in income on the strength of several acquisitions and the completion of new developments.

Gearing–or total debt as a percentage of equity– was a conservative 28.5 percent as of Sept. 30. GPT’s is among the strongest balance sheets in the A-REIT space, even after it completed AUD1.9 billion of acquisitions in the first nine months of the year.

During the quarter GPT and GPT Wholesale Office Fund each acquired a 50 percent interest in CBW, otherwise known as Corner of Bourke and William, in Melbourne for a total AUD608.1 million.

And GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre Fund acquired a further 8.33 percent interest in Highpoint Shopping Centre for AUD154.3 million from the Highpoint Property Group.

A successful USD175 million issue in the US private placement market helped lengthen GPT’s debt maturation profile and further diversify GPT’s debt-funding sources. The cost of debt in the first half was 30 basis points lower compared to 2013.

GPT reported 2014 first-half EPS growth of 4.5 percent and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) growth of 3.3 percent to AUD183.3 million.

Statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) was down 6.4 percent to AUD240.6 million.

Although the value of GPT’s portfolio increased by AUD30.8 million, this was offset by the impact of asset sales in the second half of 2013 and a negative mark-to-market movement on derivatives.

Management reported a net tangible asset value (NTA) per security of AUD3.82 as of June 30, 2014. That figure improved to AUD3.99 as of Sept. 30. GPT was trading at a premium to NTA of 5.5 percent as of this writing.

The weighted average lease expiration extended to 6.3 years as of June 30, up from 5.8 years as of Dec. 31, 2013.

GPT–one of the first of its kind–has been publicly listed in Australia since April 1971. One of the largest diversified listed property groups in the Land Down Under, it’s one of the top 50 stocks on the ASX by market capitalization.

Streamlining its asset portfolio and committing to a strong balance sheet have served GPT well in the aftermath of the GR/GFC. Those factors should support solid earnings and distribution growth for the long term.

GPT Group is a buy on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) using the symbol GPT and on the US over-the-counter (OTC) market using the symbol GPTGF under USD4.

GPT Group closed at AUD4.21 on the ASX on Nov. 13. Based on the prevailing exchange rate as of this writing, that’s USD3.67 in US dollar terms.

GPT’s fiscal year corresponds with the calendar year, running from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31. The A-REIT reports full financial and operating results twice a year; it typically posts first-half results in mid-August and full-year numbers in mid-February.

GPT changed the frequency of its distribution payments from quarterly to half-yearly effective July 1, 2013. The change was made as part of management’s focus on cost optimization, as it was forecast to save the A-REIT approximately AUD1.6 million in finance and administration costs on an annual basis.

From 2014 onward the distribution dates each year are June 30 (to be paid in September) and Dec. 31 (to be paid in March).

GPT’s final distribution in respect of 2013 of AUD0.103, declared on Nov. 18, 2013, was paid on March 14, 2014, to shareholders of record on Dec. 31, 2013. Shares traded ex-dividend on this declaration as of Dec. 23, 2013.

The most recent interim dividend of AUD0.105 per share was also declared on Nov. 18, 2013. It was paid Sept. 12, 2014, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2014. Shares traded ex-dividend on this declaration as of June 26, 2014.

Dividends paid by GPT are “qualified” for US tax purposes. Dividends will be taxed at a rate of 5 percent to 15 percent for investors’ first USD450,000 a year of income for couples and USD400,000 for single filers. Above that the maximum tax rate is 20 percent.

The Australian government withholds 5 percent to 15 percent, based on the US-Australia tax treaty on double taxation. The two countries have not taken the step of eliminating withholding from dividends paid in respect of shares held in a US IRA, as have the US and Canada.

Among the analysts who cover the stock five rate it a “buy” according to Bloomberg’s standardization of brokerage house recommendation terminology, while nine rate it a “hold.” Three brokerages that cover GPT rate the A-REIT a “sell.”

The average 12-month target price among the nine analysts that provide a figure is AUD4.14, with a high of AUD4.33 and a low of AUD3.94.  Based on a Nov. 13, 2014, closing price of AUD4.21 on the ASX, the implied one-year total return, including the present annualized dividend rate of AUD0.208, is 3.3 percent.

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