Play Defense with Australia’s Telecom Leader

When we started this Australian adventure a little more than three years ago, the AE Portfolio consisted of what we called “eight income wonders from Down Under.”

There were and are none greater than Telstra Corp. Ltd. (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY), the country’s main telecommunications player, often described as the Verizon and AT&T of Australia.

That’s a function of Telstra’s fixed-wire communication; its wireless network’s coverage, reliability and technological superiority, and its ownership of a significant amount of mobile spectrum.

A Mobile Powerhouse

Telstra’s continued 4G network rollout will keep it ahead of the competition in the mobile segment. It already offers four times more 4G coverage area than any other mobile network, reaching 87% of Australia’s population.

To boost the 4G network’s speed and capacity, Telstra plans to spend $1.07 billion (all figures in U.S. currency) for the largest available holding of the 700 megahertz (MHz) and 2500 MHz spectrum. It also expects to once again invest around $820 million in its mobile network in fiscal 2015.

The company’s dominance is once again fueling dividend growth: After holding its payout steady for nine years, Telstra announced its second hike in calendar 2014 and also revealed plans for a $820 million share buyback when it reported fiscal 2014 results in August.

These plans still leave plenty of balance sheet flexibility for acquisitions and to bolster Telstra’s network.

AE 1412 Telstra table

Telstra paid a final dividend of 12 cents a share, up from 11 cents a year ago, after lifting the fiscal 2014 interim dividend slightly to 12 cents in the prior corresponding period. All told, fiscal 2014 dividends are up 5.4% from fiscal 2013.

Network Investment Pays Off

Telstra added 937,000 mobile subscribers in fiscal 2014 and now has a total of 16 million, who helped drive 5.1% growth in mobile revenue, to $7.97 billion.

Revenue for Telstra’s fixed-voice business declined 7.5%, but that’s the unit’s best result in five years. Fixed-data revenue was up 6.3%, helped by 183,000 new subscribers, bringing the total to 3 million. Sales at the network applications and services (NAS) business, which provides cloud and other IT functions, grew 27.8%, to $1.57 billion.

Total income for fiscal 2014 was up 6.1%, to $21.7 billion. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) amounted to $91.5 billion, a 9.5% increase compared to fiscal 2013.

Statutory net profit after tax grew 14.6%, to $3.55 billion, as earnings per share gained 14.3%, to 28 cents. The payout ratio for the full year was 85.7%.

Building a National Network

Payments for co-operating with Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) ramped up in fiscal 2014, with NBN-related revenue of $528 million, up from $329 million for fiscal 2013.

Under a new agreement signed on Dec. 14, 2014, Telstra will progressively sell its copper and cable television networks to NBN Co to be used to connect most Australian homes and businesses to the state-owned broadband network.

Telstra will be paid $11 billion over about 30 years in a revised deal that gives it a bigger role building and maintaining the NBN.

And it appears likely Telstra will reap further commercial benefits in addition to the $11 billion through additional work on the construction of the NBN. Telstra remains in discussion with NBN Co on the provision of planning, design, construction and maintenance services.

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The main change to the original agreements relates to the approach taken to Telstra’s copper and hybrid fiber-coaxial (HFC) networks, which were built to distribute cable television.

Under the new deal, Telstra will continue to disconnect premises from its copper and HFC broadband networks. Rather than scrap them, NBN Co will take over the ownership where it wishes to use them as part of the NBN. NBN Co will take on responsibility for the operations and maintenance of the copper and HFC assets.

Telstra has generated a 92.9% total return in U.S. dollar terms since the September 2011 debut of Australian Edge, outperforming both the S&P/Australian Securities Exchange 200 Index (up 32.8%) and the S&P 500 Index (up 87.6%).

Looking to the Cloud

The company has pinned its growth strategy on its cloud-focused NAS segment. There’s a defensive element to this, as the trends from which Telstra hopes to benefit are also ones that eat away at its traditional revenue streams.

NAS’s growth rates have been impressive, but the unit still represents a small part of Telstra’s revenue and has relatively little earnings impact.

Meanwhile, Telstra’s strong free cash flow gives it a competitive advantage and helps it grow its mobile voice and broadband margins while building market share.

Telstra is a buy under $5.50 on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) using the symbol TLS and on the US over-the-counter (OTC) market using the symbol TTRAF.

Telstra also trades on the US OTC market as a Level I sponsored American Depositary Receipt (ADR). Telstra’s ADR is worth five ordinary ASX-listed shares. Telstra’s ADR is a buy under $27.50.

The stock closed at AUD5.69 on the ASX on December 11. Based on the prevailing exchange rate as of this writing, that’s $4.71. Its US OTC listing closed at $4.66. The ADR last traded at $23.50.

The three listings represent equal ownership interests with equal dividend rights, and all three will reflect changes in the relationship between the Australian dollar and the US dollar.

 

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