Laying A Foundation

Bear markets aren’t the best time to expect immediate blockbuster gains. But they are the best possible time to build a high-quality portfolio of positions for outsized future returns.

Doing just that is our primary goal for the New World 3.0 Portfolio here in its second month of operation. To date we’ve purchased nine stocks of companies tapped into what’s shaping up as the biggest investment opportunity of our lifetime: The need to construct the infrastructure needed to run a global 21st century economy.

Our picks are divided into three major groups. Red, White and Blue highlights dominant US-based companies that are successfully pivoting into New World winners by taking their old economy strengths and leveraging them with new technologies and ways of doing business. They’re big, strong and set to remain dominant for years to come.

Beyond Our Borders highlights similarly strong companies based outside the US. They give us political and geographic diversification, and also flexibility tapping into investment opportunities in countries where American players may be less than welcome.

Cutting Edge Tech features mostly smaller companies with breakthrough technologies that are driving the new infrastructure. They’re inherently less stable and more volatile, not exactly a strong point in the current market environment. But they’re also very cheap now and feature phenomenal upside.

The list of holdings can be found by clicking on the Portfolio tab. Overall returns thus far have been generally on the downside, not surprising considering the steep plunge in global markets over the past month. And we wouldn’t be surprised if they slipped a bit further, at least a long as the macro situation remains so tumultuous.

As pointed out in this week’s Viewpoint, there have been some favorable developments in the credit markets over the past couple of weeks. And the authorities around the globe are firmly committed to maintaining that momentum to loosen up lending.

The key now is to get some visibility on how far the global economy will retrench in the coming months as credit conditions come unstuck. Once that happens, we should see a strong rally and portfolio returns will improve markedly. Until then, however, we have an ideal opportunity to accumulate the best companies at the best possible prices.

To be sure, buying these stocks now isn’t for anyone who’s not prepared for the possibility of some near-term red ink. We’re very positive on our picks’ future tapping into the infrastructure boom. But even they are vulnerable to wholesale, emotional selling. That’s why we strongly recommend an approach of incremental investing, rather than backing up the truck. Again, this is a time to build positions gradually, not to try to be a hero.

Every bear market is triggered by stress tests. This bear was born in mid-2007, and has grown increasingly large and vicious as the dire situation in the credit markets has spilled over to the real economy. The important thing to remember is every bear market eventually comes to an end. And when the tide turns, the strong always recover a lot faster than anyone thinks possible at the bottom.

Of course, there are always some companies that don’t survive the stress tests, and it’s critical to be on the lookout for their troubles. When you’re trying to buy great stocks in a bear market, you’ve got to willing to cut them some slack. But as one market analyst we respect has said more than once, a stock doesn’t know you own it. It won’t return your love, so make sure you treat it accordingly. In other words, our focus is long term. But we can and will cut companies loose if they don’t measure up.

At this point, we’re going to keep steadily adding companies to the Portfolio, generally at the rate of one per week. New additions are highlighted in the featured articles appearing in On the Beat 3.0 queue. Note that our editors rotate featured articles every week.

As for the current Portfolio holdings themselves, we’ll have a complete update in this section in a future issue, once we fill out the holdings a bit more. There are also periodic updates of major events in the New World Alerts section on the homepage. Note performance is updated in the Portfolio table on a weekly basis, measured by total return (capital gain or loss plus dividends paid).

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