Brexit and The Dividend Champions

Great Britain’s decision to exit the European Union caused significant market volatility around the world. Most asset classes and currencies were caught up in the Brexit storm, but the immediate reaction didn’t last long. As the dust settles, let’s analyze long-term repercussions for individual stocks on a company-by-company basis.

We evaluate implications for companies in the Dividend Champions portfolio from two different angles: First, by looking at the direct implications of Brexit based on each company’s trade relationships. We conclude that only a few of the Dividend Champions have trade relationships with the EU and U.K. that will directly be influenced by new trade arrangements. We summarize those below.page 1 graphic

 Second, by estimating the indirect implications of Brexit through changes in macroeconomic variables, such as economic growth, currency and interest-rate movements. At this point, we assume that Brexit will reduce economic growth in the U.K. and Europe, that both the Euro and the British Pound will remain at weaker levels against the U.S. dollar, and that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.

A note of caution: we offer this analysis as a very high-level assessment only. The impact of any changes to trade regimes will only be worked out over the next few years, and interest rates and currencies can change direction quickly.

CAE Inc (TSX: CAE, NYSE: CAE), the global provider of flight simulation services, currently receives 31% of its revenue from the EU, including several operations domiciled in the U.K. A weaker British pound and weaker U.K. and European economic growth will have a negative impact on profits translated into Canadian dollars.

Finning International (TSX: FTT, OTC: FINGF), the world’s largest Caterpillar dealer headquartered in Canada, generates around 20% of its revenue from dealerships in the U.K. and Ireland. The weaker British pound and possibly weaker economy could have a negative impact on the profits generated from those operations.

Brookfield Infrastructure (TSX: BIP-U, NYSE: BIP) holds infrastructure assets (port terminals, energy transmission, distribution and storage facilities, and communication installations) in Europe and the U.K. The company doesn’t disclose a detailed breakdown of revenues from these assets, but we estimate that they make up around 25% of its total. A weak Euro and British Pound will impact the translation of profits, which are declared in U.S. dollars, although the company normally hedges a considerable portion of the cash flows.

Inter Pipeline (TSX: IPL, OTC: IPPLF) operates bulk liquid storage terminals in Europe, contributing around 12% of profits. The most probable negative impact here is a currency translation effect in the case of a weak Euro and British Pound.

Manulife Financial (TSX: MFC, NYSE: MFC) and Sun Life Financial (TSX: SLF, NYSE: SLF) both have limited operations in the U.K and Europe. Nevertheless, declining interest rates continue to make it more difficult for insurance companies to earn acceptable investment returns on new investments in the fixed income sector, where insurance companies typically invest the bulk of insurance premiums.

Power Corporation of Canada (TSX: POW, OTC: PWCDF) owns 66% of Power Financial, which derives 38% of its operating profits from Europe. Apart from a possible negative translation affect, the same concerns about lower investment returns as mentioned for Sun Life and Manulife also apply to the extensive insurance operations of Power Corp.

Shawcor Ltd. (TSX: SCL, OTC: SAWLF), the pipeline services operator, indicates that around 36% of its revenues come from EMAR region, which includes Europe and the U.K. The most probable impact here is a negative currency translation effect.

Suncor Energy (TSX:SU, NYSE: SU) operates some oil-producing assets (11% of total 2015 production) in the North Sea, but the product is traded in U.S. dollars. No impact from Brexit as far as we can determine.

Thomson Reuters Corporation (TSX:TRI, NYSE:TRI). The company derives 9% of its revenue from the U.K. and 11% from the revenue of European Union. The company reports profits in U.S. dollars, so we can see a negative profit translation impact through a weaker Euro and British pound.

Our early conclusion is that Brexit will be more bark than bite – at least from a Canadian perspective. However, we will keep an eye on future developments to determine how the companies listed above will be affected, if at all.

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