Virtual Reality Profit Potential is a Go!

I’m not going to lie; I have absolutely no idea what a Pokémon is aside from some sort of cartoonish character used in a popular video game. Judging from my newsfeed nothing else has happened in the world since the augmented reality game Pokémon Go was released earlier this month, and it hasn’t just been kids playing it.

My 30-something wife and I decided to renovate our den this past weekend – we painted and laid a new floor – and I was expecting her to be of at least some help. Every time I had to make a trip to the hardware store, and there are inevitably at least a few trips when I tackle a home improvement project, she wanted to go with me. What I mistook as interest in our project was actually just an excuse to try to catch a Pikachu. While I was down in the basement inhaling sawdust, she was wandering the neighborhood hunting Pokémon.

My wife’s case is actually pretty tame. We live near an Army ammunition plant which, though operated by a private contractor, is home to a small garrison of troops. While it’s not quite as secure as the White House, there are tall barbed wire fences and a host of well-armed men and women there, so unauthorized interlopers usually don’t make it too far into the base. One story that has dominated the news here this weekend is that of a grown man arrested for trespassing on the base. His reason? He was hunting Pokémon.

Even if some players aren’t showing a lot of common sense, it’s safe to say the game is a hit. According to the technology news website Recode, an estimated 9.5 million Americans alone are playing Pokémon Go daily, so a lot of money is being made.

Since the game forces players to interact with their environment, having to travel to locations on an actual map where Pokémon located to capture them, it is calling a lot of attention to virtual reality stocks. Our own Himax Technologies (NSDQ: HIMX), which makes display driver circuits, has shot up by nearly 15% over the past week.

While Himax is about as close to a pure play on the virtual reality (VR) trend as you can get, that’s not its only business. It also supplies display circuits for smartphones, which most people use to play Pokémon Go. Sales of those phones have actually been dropping in the US, down by an estimated 6% in the first quarter alone, as consumers have delayed upgrading for a host of reasons. But if you’ve actually played the game, it can be choppy and unreliable on older devices so a lot of investors are clearly betting people will start upgrading again.

Considering the ubiquity of smartphones in the US – even with the sales drop there were still 56.4 million devices sold in the first quarter alone – I don’t know that Pokémon Go will be enough on its own to cause a spike in sales. But there has been no major news involving the company over the past week, so the only assumption I can make is that the markets expect the declining trend to reverse thanks to the game.

Regardless, Himax has been showing fairly steady revenue growth over the past few quarters, even if earnings have been a bit sparse. We expect that to accelerate as VR takes off in the coming years, with roughly 5 million VR units expected to ship this year and rising to nearly 70 million by 2020.

While we’re not so sure of the assumptions driving the recent price jump, we still rate Himax Technologies a buy up to $15.

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