Aggression Didn’t Pay

The good news is that despite an awful start to 2016, investments recommended here this year  returned an average of 8.4% through June 30.

In better news, the Alerian MLP Index returned 14.7% in the first half of the year.

Why are we so happy to be lagging behind our benchmark? Because no matter how frequently we venture beyond our portfolios’ midstream energy core, the health of these pipeline operators remains a paramount consideration.

The more distance they can put between themselves and last winter’s panic lows, in terms of investor psychology as well as market value, the better. So far so good on those measures.

We’re not going to fret six percentage points of underperformance in six months after beating the Alerian by 25 percentage points over three years.

Our gains were diluted by steep losses in the five tanker stocks jettisoned last month. Without those and SunEdison, performance would have been right in line with the benchmark.

This despite the fact that several recent recommendations haven’t had much time to prove their worth, while a couple of others stopped trading near the market’s lows early this year.

I’m not suggesting that you ignore those tanker stocks and other picks that haven’t panned out when evaluating our performance. But, as always, our primary goal is to deliver timely, informative analysis.

There is no easy way to quantify the value of predicting a strong year for MLPs, as we did amid January’s gloom, nor of urging readers to load up on Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) in February and TerraForm Power (NASDAQ: TERP) in March.

Our luck with many of this year’s portfolio additions has been considerably more obvious. Suburban Propane Partners (NYSE: SPH) returned 45% since Feb. 16, and CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX) since we recommended it and flagged it as a Best Buy on April 16.

The rising tide of the MLP rebound lifted most boats other than those tankers: only 17 of the 56 recommendations were first-half losers. Of course, for us this time, these too often proved big losers. But at least the vast majority of the duds did their thing within the highest-risk Aggressive basket.

The small Conservative Portfolio performed like you’d want it to in times of stress, delivering an above-market return with below-average volatility. UGI (NYSE: UGI) rallied alongside other utilities as bond yields slid, while Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) lagged after significantly outperforming the sector last year.

160715MLPPmidyearperfconservative

Meanwhile, SEP’s general partner Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) was the biggest winner in any of the portfolios during the first half of the year, surging 56% in the Growth basket. Suburban Propane, AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) and TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) also returned at least 40%. Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) notably lagged, while Targa Resource Partners was absorbed by its sponsor at February’s lows.

160715MLPPmidyearperfgrowth

The Aggressive portfolio massively underperformed, as the costly losers negated the general trend. Hanging on to a leveraged MLP sector proxy in January proved none too bright. Not ditching DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM) and EQT (NYSE: EQT) at the lows worked out much better.

160715MLPPmidyearperfaggressive

I’m encouraged by the gains made so far in July by TerraForm as well as the coal miners we recommended a month ago. And of course there are bound to be more setbacks as well. But they’re unlikely to prove as sweeping or a costly as last winter’s. As volatility abates, the midstream sector’s relatively generous yields should go lower still as a result of capital appreciation. And we remain very bullish on natural gas as a driver of longer-term growth.

 

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StanZ

StanZ

Thanks for your updates and info. Stan Z

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