FireEye Misses its Target

FireEye (NSDQ: FEYE) tumbled after reporting another difficult quarter, which seems to be a recurring theme for the company.

Second quarter revenue came in at $175 million, up 18.9% year-over-year but still well below the expected $181 million. Billings also came up short at $196.4 million compared to expectations of about $209 billion, and as a result the company posted a GAAP loss of $139.3 million, or -$0.86 per share. Using the non-GAAP basis that the company prefers, and most analysts track, losses actually narrowed year-over-year to -$0.33 per share.

Amazingly enough, the crux of the problem is that the nature of cyberattacks are changing. While the number of attacks is well up and growing each year, there are fewer large assaults meant to steal data and more smaller, ransomware attacks. As a result, the duration and size of incident responses has been falling, resulting in fewer billable hours and falling sales of its security subscriptions and products.

Because of that miss and the changing nature of cybersecurity, FireEye lowered its 2016 revenue forecast from between $780 million to $810 million to a range between $716 million to $728 million. FireEye has also said that it will lay off roughly 400 workers, rejigger the price points for its products and expand its Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) with third-party vendor alerts. Up to this point, FireEye has limited its service to working only with its own technology.

Wall Street analysts aren’t pleased by these developments, particularly since they pinned high hopes on the FireEye’s new CEO, Kevin Mandia, who just started the top leadership position in June. Given the timing of the changeover, Mandia can’t be blamed for the weak quarterly performance since it was essentially over when he took the job. But the worry has become that even with Mandia’s extensive experience in the field, FireEye might already be too far behind its competitors to catch up.

For instance, SaaS is hardly a new innovation in cybersecurity. Most of FireEye’s competitors already have extensive SaaS models in place, yet FireEye has only recently begun making the transition itself. Many of the company’s competitors have also built their products to work with other company’s technology, something FireEye has been loath to do. On a more intangible front, there have also been recent reports that turnover at the company has been high in recent months as employees have been seeking greener, more secure pastures.

From a long term perspective, FireEye has a solid plan in place to grow its business and achieve profitability. I also think Mandia is the right man for doing the job. The main problem is timing: Given the company’s slow entry into SaaS, its failure to adapt to the changing threat landscape and the fact that it has lagged its competition in playing well with other products, it will take some time for the plan to come together. Most of the company’s investors are clearly tired of waiting though.

We’ve maintained a “buy” on the company for more than a year-and-a-half now, and we’re tired of waiting as well. Over that time for every step forward FireEye has taken, it seems to stumble two steps back, so if it FireEye does start making progress we can always buy it back later. But it looks like now’s the time to cut our loss and sell.

Sell FireEye.

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