Paycom is Paying Back

Shares of Paycom Software (NYSE: PAYC) have made a decent jump over the past week, with a five-day gain of 7% after a few favorable developments.

Despite it’s nearly $3 billion market cap, Paycom is still something of an upstart in the industry, facing off against major competitors like $23 billion market cap Paychex (NSDQ: PAYX) and $40 billion market cap Automatic Data Processing (NSDQ: ADP). Given that size differential the markets take notice when analysts give Paycom favorable reviews, such as when a Barclays analyst says the company’s best growth is still ahead of it.

Barclays’ Ramio Lenschow said in a recent note that Paycom is represented in only 42 out of 120 potential markets, leaving the company with plenty of room to expand. He also pointed that the company is continuing to add new products, plus its existing offices are beginning to pick up repeat business from contacts already in place. Because of those opportunities, Barclays pumped its price target from $51 to $55 per share.

Recent SEC filings also show that institutional investors have been taking a big interest in Paycom. RS Investment Management, which runs funds and provides investment services to both individual and institutional clients, bumped its stake in the company by 15.2% in the second quarter, taking its total stake to 885,154 shares. According to 13F filings, which are made on a trailing basis, institutional investors have added more than 24 million shares of Paycom to their holdings so far this year.

All of those favorable developments has put a squeeze on short sellers, who have been making big bets that the stock would decline. Over the past month, short interest has fallen by 5.5% as the continued rise in the stock price – more than 33% so far this year – has made holding shares short increasingly expensive. As the number of shares sold short falls, that takes downward pressure off the share price.

General economic trends have also been helping the company. While U.S. job creation is running below last year, companies are still hiring at a brisk pace that’s continuing to push unemployment lower. That’s helping to boost demand for products like Paycom’s, which help track potential talent and guide human resources professionals through the hiring process.

All of that has had a positive impact on third quarter analyst estimates. Paycom management is projecting revenue to fall between $75 million and $77 million, and analysts are predicting it will fall near the top of that range with the consensus now at $76.7 million. Analysts are also expecting normalized EPS to come in at $0.11, which is the weakest for the company on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Last year’s third quarter saw normalized EPS of $0.07 on $55.3 million in revenue.

With all of these positive developments, we’re bumping Paycom Software’s target price up to $53.

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