Trump the Key to Interest in KEYW

Back in July I recommended buying KEYW Holding (NSDQ: KEYW), which since then had drifted along until last week. A tiny company that’s specializes in cybersecurity and geospatial intelligence, it also owns a fleet of small planes capable of specialized intelligence gathering. Its business outlook was improving at the time and it has shown some improvement.

When it announced its third quarter results earlier this month, revenue was down 3.7% year-over-year to $72.1 million and its gross margin rose from 30.5% to 33%. That margin improvement gave earnings a solid boost from $3.3 million last year to $4.2 million. Not surprisingly, the shares barely budged on the news – then came President-Elect Trump.

My main thesis for recommending it at the time was that no matter who won the election, the next president was facing some serious security challenges. From ISIS in the Middle East, Russia being in an expansive mood and China’s rising influence, solid intelligence was going to be critically important. I wrote that article (“Keeping Tabs on Terrorists“) before the conventions so I had no way of knowing who the nominees would be, but it was clear the American public wasn’t in the mood for more foreign follies.

Trump seemed to understand that mood, and he even made it part of his platform. While he wants to get tough on foreign trade, he doesn’t seem to have an appetite for foreign wars and the best way to avoid them is to know what the other guy is up to. Good intelligence also helps military decision makers find targets for bombing and keeping troops out of harm’s way. Cue KEYW.

Over the past week the security company’s shares have jumped by more than 18.5%. There hasn’t been much news out of the company, aside from the announcement that John Hannon is resigning from its board of directors and will be replaced by Shephard Hill. Hill is a former president of Boeing International and was senior vice-president of business development and strategy there.

While new directors can sometimes portend a change in direction for a company or even a deal, that doesn’t seem likely in this case. While Boeing makes a lot of the technology KEYW uses, it doesn’t deploy it so a deal doesn’t make much sense. Even still, Hill does come with a lot of relevant industry experience, so he could open doors with some news customers.

The real news is that we have a Republican president and defense and security-related companies tend to do best under Republican administrations. In the case of ISIS, while the president-elect hasn’t laid out any sort of grand strategy, Trump has said that he would “bomb the hell out of ISIS,” and that “Nobody would be tougher on ISIS than Donald Trump. Nobody.”

The market is clearly taking his word on that, especially since Trump’s election is the only reason I can find for KEYW’s big move. While there’s more upside left, it’s approaching our target so I’m cutting it to Hold

KEYW Holding Corp is a Hold.

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