Three Sales, Three Big Gains

I’m selling three positions for gains:

  • Bel Fuse (NSDQ: BELFB): Up 30% since recommended in September.
  • NXP Semiconductors (NSDQ: NXPI: Up 22% since recommended in April.
  • NICE Systems (NSDQ: NICE): Up 15% this year, but up 50% since it was first recommended in 2014.

There isn’t anything more gratifying then seeing your ideas play out in short order, and that’s what’s happened with Bel Fuse, shares of which are up 30% since I recommended them in September. I’m hoping you did the same, and if so I’d love to hear about your experience by posting a comment in the Stock Talk section at the bottom of this page.

Back in September just two analysts covered the stock with any regularity. S&P Capital IQ now lists eleven firms following the stock, six of which are either “quant shops” or simply data providers while the other five focus mainly on fundamentals. That growing coverage, as I predicted, helped the stock pop, even though it had a lackluster third quarter.

When Bel Fuse reported earnings about a month ago, net sales were down 10.6% to $128.8 million. Most segments were down by large percentages, with only European sales up a slight 2.2%, and magnetic solutions up by 1.1%. Still, earnings per share on the Class B shares we recommend shot up from $0.42 last year to $0.82 thanks to a healthy increase in margins. Cost reduction programs started at the beginning of the year brought done both labor and overhead costs and the company is finally realizing benefits from the acquisition of its power solutions and connectivity solutions businesses in 2014. What sales growth there was came from higher margin products.

So like I said, the news wasn’t all bad, but I’m not sure it was good enough to justify the 27% jump the shares have taken since the announcement. That’s the benefit of more analyst coverage: more folks covering the stock attract more attention to it and you get a lot more spin when the news is just okay. But you know what? We’ll take it.

That said I’m perfectly happy with a better than 30% gain in two months.

NXP Semiconductors

There’s also been movement on NXP Semiconductors’ (NSDQ: NXPI) tie-up with Qualcomm (NSDQ: QCOM). The bottom line: Sell NXP, which we recommended in April, for a 22% gain.

Qualcomm launched a tender for NXP’s shares last week, offering $110 per share to be financed out of its cash-on-hand and some new debt. The offer expires on Feb. 6, 2017, at which point most of NXP shareholders will have had to have tended their shares and a slew of anti-trust hurdles jumped, both here and in Europe, for the payout to happen. I’m not certain all that can be accomplished in just over two months but, if it is, checks would be in the mail by Feb. 21. Otherwise we’re still looking at the deal closing in the second half of next year.

I recommend that you tender your NXP Semiconductors shares.

Nice Systems

Last by not least, I’m also selling NICE Systems.

Shares of the Israeli provider of customer interaction and financial security software have gained better than 15% this year, and 50% since we first recommended the shares in April of 2014. They’ve been losing some steam over the past few weeks though, especially after its last earnings report was just okay.

Third quarter revenue rose 7.3% year-over-year to $237.2 million, while earnings came in at $0.83. Management predicts full-year earnings will come in between $3.53 to $3.65 on revenue between $1.022 billion and $1.036 billion. The market was somewhat underwhelmed with the news, pushing the shares more than 3% lower.

While I’m happy with NICE’s performance, the fact is its markets are becoming more and more competitive. At this point, the best thing we can do is lock in our 50% gain.

Stock Talk

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