Less Fighting, More Winning at Williams

It’s hard to believe that only six months ago Williams (NYSE: WMB) was such a hot mess, stood up at the merger altar by Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) and then embroiled in a board feud that saw nearly half the directors quit.

Accusations of mismanagement and conflicts of interest were bandied about freely, and one of the dissident ex-directors was soon threatening a proxy contest to replace his foes.

Another suitor turned up, but Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) was in short order declaring publicly that it hadn’t gotten very far because Williams failed to reciprocate its interest.

Meanwhile, with the energy slump entering its third year and gathered gas volumes down, the company was finally forced to slash its dividend by 69% in order to finance growth at the Williams Partners (NYSE: WPZ) MLP affiliate.

The stock rallied 38% to a nine-month high between Aug. 1 and Sept. 8 as Enterprise nosed around, and then curiously held the bulk of those gains after the potential acquirer backed away, trading in a notably narrow range over the last three months.

Over that span, some of the former liabilities have transformed into current assets.

The board of directors has been completely revamped, several management loyalists replaced with a larger group of newly recruited energy industry heavyweights.

The fund manager who had threatened the proxy contest backed down and praised the revamp.

Williams sold its Canadian assets and has now put its Gulf Coast olefins plant on the block as well. Those disposals will bolster the balance sheet and sharpen the focus on the company’s crown jewel – the Transco gas transmission trunk line running along the Eastern Seaboard.  This long haul pipe continues to spawn demand-driven extensions backed by lucrative long-term contracts.

The decision to cut the dividend at Williams while reinvesting distributions from WPZ into its units is looking smart. It has solved the funding crunch at Williams Partners without scaring off income-seeking MLP investors. Meanwhile Williams shareholders appear not to have been bothered in the least by the tradeoff of an unsustainable dividend for a greater stake in future WPZ cash flows.

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Source: Williams presentation

Finally, even the underlying business seems to be improving. Williams Partners has increased its distributable cash flow 8% year-to-date, and though a lot of that is the result of a full year of operations at the repaired and revived olefins operation, each of the gathering regions has also delivered an encouraging if modest gain. WPZ’s distribution coverage has been adequate at 1.08x in the third quarter and 1.04x year-to-date. Its unit price has been steady.

Williams Partners stills pays out too much on its equity at the current 9.6% yield relative to comparable rivals; its merger into WMB along the lines of the one that was pending before Energy Transfer gummed up the works still seems likely one day soon.

And Williams remains a possible target as well; Enterprise’s CEO was quite open on the most recent call about coveting a pipeline very much like Transco, if the price were ever right the way it hasn’t been to this point.

In that context, it’s fascinating to note that one of the two directors added by Williams last week in completing the overhaul of its board is none other than Michael Creel, the CEO at Enterprise for five years until his surprise retirement in March 2015. It’s almost as if Williams, too, believes it has some unfinished business with Creel’s former and longtime employer.

We urged subscribers to halve their stake in Williams in late August while recommending buying Williams Partners for the first time then. Neither security has done much since. But the underlying business has clearly made a lot of progress.

As a result, we’re upgrading WMB to a Buy below $34 and moving it from the Aggressive Portfolio back to Growth in recognition of diminished risks. Growth pick WPZ remains a buy below $42.

 

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