Spring In Our Step

I just pulled up the 20-year chart of the Alerian MLP Index by accident. And I think this was a pretty happy accident, because it puts MLPs’ recent gains in a broader perspective.

Sure the Alerian is up almost 14% (before distributions) in just under four months, and 33% on the same basis over the past year. But here’s the wider-lens view on all that:

That’s not to imply we’re headed back to 2014 highs any time soon. Still, the path of least resistance should lead up rather than down to the lows of a year ago, barring an unlikely repeat crash in energy prices.

Rebounding domestic energy production volumes and resilient prices are reinforcing midstream cash flows thinned by the preceding slump. Low interest rates and easy credit conditions continue to provide a favorable tailwind. Just as important, investor demand for midstream equities appears robust based on recent fund flows data.

For proof, look no further than Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP), the dividend-paying proxy for Plains All American (NYSE: PAA). After grinding lower for three months, PAGP was able to unload a big $1.3 billion equity offering late last week without retreating any further. It’s another indication of an increasingly aggressive bid for MLPs on any dip.

Coincidentally, we’re using the recent dip in the price of Sanchez Production Partners (NYSE: SPP) to recommend this underappreciated MLP, recently transformed by its association with a fast-growing Eagle Ford producer. Annualized yields of 12% backed largely by midstream assets under long-term contract don’t grow on trees.

Fat yields are easier to find in the shipping space, and for good reason given that sector’s notorious volatility and ever-present risks. But the niche for floating vessels used to turn liquefied natural gas back into gas at its destination is booming along with the global LNG trade. And that means our two new LNG buys likely have at least a few more good years left before we have to really worry about the intensifying competition.

More midstream growth is happening near the southern U.S. border, where not even the Trump-fueled tensions seem likely to stop the boom in new pipelines shipping cheap U.S. natural gas to Mexico. The current batch of projects is benefiting major pipeline operators we already recommend, notably Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) and Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE); we remain on the lookout for related opportunities.

You should be on the lookout for near-term changes in the format of this newsletter that should result in a steadier and more concise information flow and a simpler, more useful display of portfolio picks. Expect more details soon, but I’m as excited about the coming changes as I am about the bullish omens for midstream energy. The calendar says winter’s not quite over, but over here we’re getting ready to spring ahead.

 

MLP Profits Portfolio Update

  • Golar LNG Partners (NASDAQ: GMLP) added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $27
  • Hoegh LNG Partners (NYSE: HMLP) added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $22
  • Sanchez Production Partners (NYSE: SPP) added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $17

Stock Talk

Michael Culbertson

Michael Culbertson

Why do you list markwest which no longer exists but you don’t list MLPX?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I think you must be looking at the How They Rate table, which is outdated. Fortunately it will be going away in 10 days or so as we simplify the site to make it easier to find the most relevant and current information. We will of course continue to provide portfolio tables and I’ll continue to cover the most interesting developments for MLPs and the broader energy sector.

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