Chronicle of a Cut Foretold

Dividend Watch List

No Canadian Edge How They Rate companies cut dividends last month. However, one all but forecast a payout reduction: Conservative Holding Capstone Infrastructure Corp (TSX: CSE, OTC: MCQPF).

Another, GMP Capital Inc (TSX: GMP, GMPXF), strongly hinted it would cut if conditions in its industry don’t improve in the fourth quarter. In contrast, two others, AvenEx Energy Corp (TSX: AVF, OTC: AVNDF) and InterRent REIT (TSX: IIP-U, OTC: IIPZF), managed to achieve escape velocity from the Dividend Watch List.

Companies land on my list of endangered dividends for one or more of three reasons:

  • The underlying business is weakening enough for the dividend to be at risk. This is typically due to profits lagging the payout, but may also be caused if debt becomes too high to service or roll over.
  • A closed-end mutual fund is paying out significantly more in distributions than it’s making with investment income, meaning dividends are being paid with leverage, sales of assets or by returning fund capital to investors.
  • Companies are organized to pay distributions as “staple shares,” which are now targeted by the Canadian government for potential new taxes.

In Capstone’s case, it’s clearly reason No. 1. As reported in a Dec. 6 Flash Alert, however, Capstone management warned investors in updated guidance for 2011 and 2012 “it is unlikely that the corporation will continue to pay the current dividend through 2014.”

The company cited five reasons for the lowered guidance, which I enumerated in the Flash Alert. In my view, however, the main reason a dividend cut is being considered wasn’t listed. That’s ongoing negotiations with the Ontario Power Authority over a new power sales contract for the Cardinal power plant.

For one thing, despite Capstone’s acquisition spree over the past year, the Cardinal plant still contributes 40 percent of cash flow. A new contract for the facility has always been critical for the company’s fortunes. Second, the guidance change mentioned a decision on the dividend by mid-2012, which, not coincidentally, is the time management “expects to gain clarity on Cardinal’s future cash flow profile.”

Management isn’t saying directly. But there were several items in the guidance change that seem to indicate Cardinal negotiations aren’t going as well as hoped. One is a statement that the company “is now experiencing lower revenue growth at Cardinal,” following changes to the “revenue escalator” in the current power sales agreement. This is the mechanism that assures Capstone is compensated for changes in fuel costs and other items outside its control.

As I’ve said many times, I don’t claim to be a long-distance mind-reader. And short of that, it doesn’t look like we’re not going to know the outcome of this “confidential” negotiation until it’s done. What we do know is the company had made statements in the past to the effect that management expected a resolution before now, which is usually a negative.

Of course, Capstone shares were arguably already pricing in at least a mildly negative outcome on Cardinal for most of this year. The acquisition of a 70 percent interest of Bristol Water, the startup of the fully contracted Amherstburg solar farm and the beginning of cash flows from the Varmevarden district heating facility this year were treated so bullishly because they reduced dependence on Cardinal and therefore potential fallout from a negative outcome in contract negotiations.

That’s still likely to be the case, despite the items announced in the guidance chance that will depress cash flows in 2012 and probably into 2013. The Varmevarden investment, for example, is being recapitalized, cutting interest income to CAD4 million from CAD7 million. The deal, however, will also provide CAD50 million to CD60 million in net proceeds to cut debt, which will reduce interest costs and raise earnings. The expected reduction in cash flow from Bristol Water is for system investment on which Capstone will earn a return in coming years, boosting earnings.

The filing by TransCanada Corp (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) to raise rates for transporting gas to fuel the Cardinal plant, meanwhile, is the type of item typically covered in a power sales contract. If the contract is renewed on favorable terms, one would expect this additional cost to eventually pass on to the buyer, the Ontario Power Authority.

My main problem with the guidance change, however, isn’t the specific items, or even the possibility that negotiations over the Cardinal contract aren’t going well. In my view, Capstone’s yield of nearly 17 percent and valuation of just 85 percent of book value more than compensate for that risk.

Moreover, the expected boost in the payout ratio is to a range of 120 to 130 percent, up from 85 to 90 percent. A mere one-third reduction in the dividend would restore the ratio to the prior range, with which management appeared to be quite comfortable, and would still leave a yield of over 10 percent. Capstone’s only debt maturing between now and 2016 is a CAD57.5 million outstanding balance on a loan facility next year. All loans are secured to assets and it still has the backing of parent Macquarie Bank as a last resort.

What bothers me is that management has issued such sharply different guidance barely three weeks after its third-quarter conference call. And aside from the Cardinal negotiations, there was little or no indication any of the issues cited in revised guidance would be significant.

What we’re left with in other words is what some might call “a pig in a poke,” or, if you will, something of a black box. And no matter how management dresses up guidance, we’re not going to get any answers to our questions until there’s clarity on the Cardinal power plant’s future cash flows.

The stock has bounced back a bit from its initial plunge following the guidance change. That’s not surprising, considering three major Bay Street houses upgraded it to “buy” following its plunge on Tuesday, versus just one cut. In fact, the current lineup on the stock is reasonably bullish at six “buys,” four “holds” and one “sell.”

At this point, however, both the bull and bear bets on Capstone are purely speculations based on what might happen at Cardinal. That’s not an income investment. Waiting for clarity on Cardinal might keep us from riding the stock up to USD5 to USD6 before re-entry. But it might also save us an additional plunge to USD3 or lower. In my view, it’s better to take the loss now and wait to see if things improve. Sell Capstone Infrastructure.

The other stock to join the Watch List this month is niche financial services company GMP Capital. The company had another very tough quarter, swinging to a loss on a 55 percent drop in revenue. Return on equity sank to minus 9.1 percent, and profit failed to cover the dividend for the third consecutive quarter.

The good news is the company continued to hold its share of key niche markets while growing assets under management. In fact, excluding what should be one-time charges, GMP was profitable in the first nine months of 2011.

The company is currently engaged in cost control efforts across the board to weather the difficult market conditions, which dried up investment banking revenue in the third quarter among other things. And it was able to secure positions in 38 separate underwritings during the quarter, raising CAD4.3 billion on behalf of clients.

We’ve been through this before with GMP, most recently in 2008-09, when the market meltdown brought transaction activity to a screeching halt. That time around management slashed the dividend twice before eventually eliminating it in early 2009 when it converted to a corporation. Since then the company has doubled its now quarterly payout to the current rate of CAD0.10 per share.

What happens this time around will depend entirely on what happens in the broad market. During the company’s third-quarter conference call last month CFO Christine Drake stated management wouldn’t be making decisions about the dividend based on today’s “draconian” conditions but would reconsider if they persisted in the fourth quarter and beyond.

That’s a pretty clear demonstration that GMP management is committed to paying a generous dividend. It’s equally clear, however, that the company operates in a tough business where it’s sometimes forced to shepherd capital to maintain long-term viability. There are no debt pressures, which enhances management’s flexibility. But GMP is now on the Watch List. Hold.

Getting Off

In contrast, AvenEx Energy and InterRent are now off the Watch List. I’ve been indicating for several quarters the progress InterRent has made getting its house in order and restoring profitability. Third-quarter numbers clearly show it’s achieved escape velocity.

The owner and developer of multi-unit residential income properties enjoyed a 9.9 percent boost in its third-quarter revenue, spurring a 24.6 percent boost in net operating income, the best on-the-ground measure of REIT profits. That spurred a 150 percent boost in funds from operations, which is the primary account from which REITs pay distributions.

The payout ratio based on funds from operations was again just 75 percent, same as the second quarter and among the lowest of the REITs I track in How They Rate. And it’s backed by strong occupancy of 96.6 percent, up from 93.3 percent a year ago. Rents rose an average of 4 percent portfolio wide on expiring leases.

Perhaps most important, management has declared the portfolio “stabilized” and is now focusing on growth. This month, it was able to offer 8.5 million of its units, with an underwriter option to increase the offering by 15 percent. That’s a sign of strength that would have been literally unthinkable only a year ago, when bankruptcy seemed a real possibility.

The only problem with InterRent at this point is the penny a month distribution currently represents a yield of less than 4 percent. I expect increases as the landlord continues to report solid results. Until then, however, InterRent is a hold.

As for AvenEx, my primary concern about the company in recent months has been its small size in a hyper-volatile environment for energy prices. The oil and gas producer, however, has been able to consistently execute its objectives all year, posting a 152 percent boost in third-quarter revenue on a 31 percent increase in production.

Funds from continuing operations were up 30 percent from year-earlier levels, And, despite a 24 percent jump in shares outstanding to fund growth and cut debt, funds from continuing operations (FFCO) per share were up 5 percent.

The payout ratio came in at 60 percent of FFCO, virtually identical to the second quarter’s 59 percent despite lower realized selling prices for energy. That’s on track with management’s previously set target and is a clear testament to AvenEx’s ability to control costs and consistent focus on a strong balance sheet.

Third-quarter realized selling prices for oil and natural gas liquids, for example, were up 20 percent from year earlier levels, but down 10 percent from the second quarter. Meanwhile, natural gas prices were down 26 percent from 2010 and 7 percent from the second quarter.

Part of that was due to systematic debt reduction, which has slashed financing costs more than 43 percent since last year. The company has been able to hedge a portion of output, though the 25 percent of natural gas in 2011 locked in is considerably less than that of many rivals. Operating costs were slightly higher, due mainly to the acquisition of liquids-rich lands this year and a greater focus on oil and NGLs. But the company was able to utilize the expertise of its Elbow River Marketing Group (24 percent of profit) to offset it by effectively selling output.

Small size–less than 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent in daily output–is still a disadvantage for AvenEx. And it’s a big reason why AvenEx doesn’t rate as highly on the CE Safety Rating System than the producers in the Portfolio. The current yield of well over 10 percent, however, more than prices in whatever risks there are.

And as long as investors understand energy prices will drive results, AvenEx is a buy up to USD7.

The List in Full

Here’s the rest of the Dividend Watch List and a brief look at their prognosis as well as any significant events over the past month. Note that all payout ratios and debt figures now reflect third-quarter results.

Aston Hill Income Fund (TSX: VIP-U, OTC: BVPIF)–Advice: SELL. The issue here is still that the yield vastly exceeds investment income. That’s likely to be the case again in the fourth quarter, unless management is very lucky and avoids every pitfall in this market. Until there’s evidence of that, investors are best off in other funds.

Canfor Pulp Products Inc (TSX: CFX, OTC: CFPUF)–Advice: Hold. The company was one of the first in the How They Rate universe to report third-quarter earnings, and there’s little or no hard news on it since. What has happened, however, is an apparent deterioration in the global pulp and paper market that could depress cash flows in the fourth quarter and into 2012.

Management has stated it intends to essentially pay out all of its profit as dividends. But with a third quarter payout ratio of 108 percent, a significant drop in realized selling prices would almost surely trigger a dividend cut. The silver lining is that’s definitely priced in now with the yield over 16 percent.

Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT (TSX: CSH-U, OTC: CWSRF)–Advice: Hold. My expectation is this company will eventually gain escape velocity from the Watch List. But while third-quarter results certainly point in that direction, I’m not taking it off quite yet.

Occupancy is back to 90.9 percent portfolio-wide, and same property net operating income was up a healthy 4.9 percent, with the payout ratio coming down to just 88 percent. US operations, formerly a drag on profits, boosted same property net operating income by 12.8 percent. Meanwhile, a series of recently announced transactions should spur growth in 2012.

Unfortunately, US health care costs are coming under the knife in a big way. Management has stated it doesn’t expect a material impact from these issues. But given the company’s continued push into the US senior housing market, that’s just more reason for caution.

Chorus Aviation Inc (TSX: CHR/B, OTC: CHRVF)–Advice: Hold. The issue here isn’t current numbers. Those are still quite good, with the payout ratio at just 56 percent in the third quarter. Rather, it’s the company’s relationship with Air Canada (TSX: AC/A, OTC: AIDIF), specifically an agreement that allows Chorus to recover its costs from operating 125 aircraft on behalf of Air Canada.

The company has diversified its revenue sources somewhat by operating for Thomas Cook, as well as operating five charter aircraft under the Jazz brand. Air Canada, however, is still by far the biggest chunk at 94 percent. Changes in the Air Canada agreement therefore potentially have a dramatic effect on profitability, and by extension the ability of Chorus to pay dividends.

The current deal provides more than ample support for the dividend and balance sheet. Air Canada, however, has proposed deep cuts in the current arrangement that would almost certainly trigger a dividend cut. The final deal isn’t likely to be nearly as bad as what’s been proposed: a cut that would require Chorus to pay Air Canada CAD26 million as well as severely cut future cash flows.

There’s a real risk, however, that it won’t be as benign as management has indicated, most recently in a mid-November conference call that barely addressed the issue. And Air Canada itself is hardly a picture of health. The 20 percent-plus yield is definitely pricing in a dividend cut at Chorus. But until there’s more clarity on the Air Canada agreement, Chorus Aviation is a hold.

CML Healthcare Inc (TSX: CLC, OTC: CMHIF)–Advice: Hold. The company has succeeded in selling its US operations, eliminating a huge drag on profitability and providing CAD34 million in proceeds that will be used to cut debt. The key now is what sort of impact exiting the US will have on future cash flows and the operator of medical imaging centers’ ability to fund its current dividend going forward.

In a conference call recapping the sale, management assured questioners that the dividend has always been funded from Canadian operations alone and that US operations had at best been breaking even from a cash flow perspective. They affirmed their intention to continue paying at the same rate and pointed to several positive developments in Canada, including new rates enacted in Ontario.

Third-quarter results did support the dividend, which is encouraging. But until we see some post-sale numbers from the company, there will still be some uncertainty about the dividend. Note the company is also still in the process of hiring a new CEO, which always has ramifications for dividend and growth policy. I’m changing my recommendation on CML Healthcare to hold from sell, however, to reflect what appears to be very good news.

EnerVest Energy & Oil Sands (TSX: EOS, OTC: EOSOF)–Advice: SELL. The key here is there are better alternatives and the dividend isn’t supported by investment income. The unit price will follow energy price, and the Canoe Family has a very good record running funds. But with little or no investment income, cash flow outlays to fund dividends will only hold back capital growth.

FP Newspapers Inc (TSX: FP, OTC: FPNUF)–Advice: Hold. This company doesn’t have the debt problems Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF) still does. That should enable it to avoid a similar fate of completely eliminating the dividend. Its core business, however, is still eroding at a faster pace than its digital advertising operations are growing.

Third-quarter earnings fell 35.6 percent and distributable cash flow fell 52 percent from year-earlier levels, mainly because the company now pays taxes. But circulation revenue fell 4.2 percent, and the print advertising business was also soft, though positive thanks to the acquisition of Derksen. That more than offset the 17 percent boost in digital advertising revenue, which management views as the future of the company.

Despite the rise in the payout ratio to 133 percent, the dividend doesn’t appear to be in any immediate danger. But there’s definitely risk here, as the 15 percent-plus yield alone shows.

Freehold Royalties Ltd (TSX: FRU, OTC: FRHLF)–Advice: Hold. As I noted last month, third-quarter earnings were expected to be solid, and they didn’t disappoint much. Revenue was up 10 percent, while cash provided by operating activities move up 9 percent per share. Funds from operations (FFO) per share were also up 9 percent, though the payout ratio based on FFO rose to 88 percent.

Freehold’s capital expenses are lower than those of rivals, as it’s primarily a collector of royalty income from other companies producing on its lands. As a result, it can afford to maintain a higher payout ratio over time. And demand for its oil-focused properties (62 percent output) promises to remain robust, though output dipped 4 percent in the third quarter from last year’s levels.

Nonetheless, the high payout ratio despite a 14 percent increase in realized prices is a worrisome sign, and definitely a reason to keep the stock on the Watch List.

NAL Energy Corp (TSX: NAE, OTC: NOIGF)–Advice: Hold. The company had another low payout ratio quarter, coming in at just 48 percent. The worry is it also increased capital spending by 49.3 percent even as production dropped 1.6 percent from last year. That’s raised speculation that management may be forced to trim the dividend in order to deploy needed funds to sustain the business.

The yield north of 12 percent definitely reflects that sentiment among investors. That may also be due to the fact that 64 percent of production is natural gas, which is still priced abysmally, and management’s commitment to deploy funds to boost oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production. Capital expenditures plus dividends were 171 percent of funds from operations in the third quarter and 141 percent for the past nine months.

That’s not really out of line with the sector in general. But it does mean there’s risk to the dividend, at least until natural gas prices stabilize.

PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–Advice: Buy @ 10. The company’s third quarter at last answered some of the nagging questions about its performance as a producer, which has been consistently disappointing the past few years.

Overall output rose 15 percent from year-earlier levels and lifted funds from operations (FFO) per share by a solid 5 percent. The payout ratio based on FFO, meanwhile, dropped to just 18 percent. These results indicate the company has overcome challenges to drilling its light oil portfolio from earlier in the year, most of which were entirely outside its control. And management has affirmed the company’s once again on track to meet its year-end development goals.

On the negative side is a debt-to-cash flow ratio of around 3-to-1, definitely on the high side and a potential impediment to raising more debt capital to fund growth. There’s nothing like successful drilling, however, to soothe lending banks’ fears in this industry. Meanwhile, the company has no near-term debt maturities to contend with and so will be able to use those credit lines to develop on schedule.

This is still a higher-risk producer. But things are definitely looking up, and it’s fine for more aggressive investors.

Precious Metals & Mining Trust (TSX: MMP-U, OTC: PMMTF)–Advice: Hold. The fund doesn’t earn investment income per se, as few of its holdings actually pay dividends. The reason to own it is to have a stake in gold and silver mining stocks that pays you cash based on current and expected share price appreciation.

This isn’t an income investment. It’s a precious metals investment that returns cash when times are good, as they are now.

Superior Plus Corp (TSX: SPB, OTC: SUUIF)–Advice: Buy @ USD6. The stock has settled in the wake of last month’s dividend cut (see November’s Dividend Watch List). The lower rate allows the company to execute debt reduction, which it’s since executed starting with a partial payoff of CAD50 million for convertible bonds due Dec. 31, 2012. That will take the balance of that issue down to just CAD49.95 million.

Third-quarter results were right in line with expectations, as strength in specialty chemicals offset some weakness elsewhere. That’s a good sign for management to meet its target for adjusted operating cash flow per share of CAD1.55 to CAD1.90 in 2011 as well as its identical target for 2012. The low end of that range would cover the current CAD0.05 per share monthly payout by a robust 2.58-to-1 margin, leaving plenty of margin for error as well as room to cut debt.

Any company that cuts once is going to have to put up convincing numbers to get off the Watch List. But the yield of 10 percent-plus definitely appears to be pricing in too much risk, making Superior a suitable speculation.

Ten Peaks Coffee Company Inc (TSX: TPK, OTCL SWSSF)–Advice: SELL. The payout ratio came down to 72 percent in the third quarter, which should eliminate any immediate pressure for a cut. But given the volatile business the company competes in, it’s only a matter of time before conditions conspire to trigger another reduction.

As I reported last month, management is optimistic about its prospects. But my advice on this stock remains the same as it’s been for several years: Avoid it.

Bay Street Beat

Bay Street reaction to quarterly earnings reported by Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings has been generally positive, though the analyst community remains largely cautious in the context of still-murky eurozone debt issues and the potential for new drags on North American growth.

Standouts include Conservative Holdings IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF) and TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF). Global construction services provider IBI is followed by 10 Bay Street analysts, and all 10 rate the stock a “buy” according to Bloomberg’s system of normalizing analyst-speak across houses. All 10 analysts who follow it have reiterated their recommendations since IBI reported third-quarter earnings.

The payout ratio came in at just 69.7, while revenue rose 9.8 percent to a new record of CAD84.3 million. Cash flow rose by an even faster 11.2 percent, also to a new record. Cash flow as a percentage of revenue rose 0.1 percentage points from year-earlier levels to 15.3 percent, as the company maintained profitability even as it grew. Distributable cash earned per share was best of all, soaring 43.5 percent to CAD0.4635.

With a yield in the vicinity of 9 percent IBI continues to price in risk that simply isn’t borne out in its numbers. Its expansion beyond its core market continues with new efforts in the US as well as in Brazil. International exposure, however, does not mean IBI will sink with a European recession. Overreaction to these concerns and how they relate to IBI’s business, as Bay Street has noticed, make it that much more attractive. IBI remains a buy all the way up to USD15.

TransForce also scores the rare perfect 10: All 10 Bay Street analysts who cover this Canada-based transportation and logistics dynamo rate it a Bloomberg-modified “buy.”

TransForce, which has capitalized on the relative weakness of others in the aftermath of a Great Recession for which it was better prepared, reported third-quarter revenue growth of 49 percent and cash flow growth of 34 percent, as it realized greater efficiencies while expanding its business geographically and by product line.

The payout ratio shrank to just 34 percent, and management used strong cash flows to further whittle down debt. The company cut total obligations by CAD50.7 million during the quarter, driving its debt-to-equity ratio down to just 1.2-to-1, from 1.34-to-1 three months earlier. TransForce has no debt maturities until a CAD41 million loan comes due in 2013, and existing credit agreements are more than capable of handling the maturity if needed, if it’s not paid down with free cash flow before then. TransForce is a buy under USD16.

Tips on DRIPs

In January 2011 Baytex Energy Corp (TSX: BTE, NYSE: BTE) opened its dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) to US investors. Baytex’s DRIP, like other plans of its kind, will allow shareholders to reinvest their monthly cash dividends in additional shares without paying commissions.

Baytex joins other New York Stock Exchange-listed Canadian companies that extend the convenience of a DRIP to US investors. US securities laws restrict participation in DRIPs sponsored by foreign companies that don’t register their offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Most plans of Canadian income and royalty trusts that do sponsor DRIPs aren’t registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. US investors, therefore, aren’t eligible to participate.

Two CE Portfolio recommendations, Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE) and Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX), do allow US investors to participate in their respective DRIP offerings, with certain limitations. Information about Penn West’s plan is available here. Click here for more information about Provident’s DRIP.

Penn West, Provident and now Baytex, because they’re listed on the NYSE, have therefore opted into US filing and registration requirements. It’s basically a matter of how much overhead expense trusts are willing to absorb.

Conservative Holding Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT), which listed on the NYSE in July 2010, continues to “evaluat[e] options for a Dividend Reinvestment Program” and “hopes to have this option available to shareholders in the future.” NYSE-listed Aggressive Holding Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF) has a DRIP for Canadian investors but has not opened it to US investors.

We’ll continue to track Atlantic Power and any other Portfolio Holdings that indicate they’re considering or announce that they will sponsor DRIPs open to US investors.

Companies under How They Rate coverage that sponsor DRIPs open to US investors include (click on the links for more information):

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