New Additions Report Solid Numbers

Oil and gas drilling fluids solutions provider Poseidon Concepts Corp (TSX: PSN, OTC: POOSF), pipeline coatings specialist ShawCor Ltd (TSX: SCL/A, OTC: SAWLF) and coffee, doughnut and muffin kingpin Tim Hortons Inc (TSX: THI, NYSE: THI) are new to How They Rate coverage this month.

Poseidon Concepts is under Energy Services, ShawCor is with the Business group and Tim Hortons can be found under Food and Hospitality. All three have reported solid second-quarter numbers in recent days.

Poseidon, which specializes in the design and manufacture of liquids storage tanks and delivery systems for use particularly on hydraulic fracturing drilling projects, posted company-record quarterly revenue, earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), cash flow from operations and net income driven, as demand for its products and services continued to grow during the three months ended Jun. 30.

Management also maintained guidance for third-quarter tank-fleet growth and full-year EBITDA.

EBITDA for the second quarter was CAD46 million, or CAD0.57 per share, up 535 percent year over year and 5 percent sequentially. Net income was CAD31.2 million, or CAD0.38 per share, up 552 percent from the second quarter of 2011 and 4 percent from the first quarter of 2012.

Revenue was up 469 percent from year-ago levels to CAD54.9 million. It was a 5 percent increase from the first three months of the current year, a solid result given the abnormally wet conditions in Western Canada–where 20 percent of Poseidon’s fleet is located–during the period.

Poseidon paid total distributions for the second quarter of CAD0.27 per share, making its payout ratio based on net income 71.1 percent. Management paid a CAD0.09 per share dividend for July and declared its intention to pay the same rate for August and September.

The tank fleet reached 400 units as of Jun. 30. When it announced first-quarter earnings on May 9, 2012, management revealed plans to boost its fleet to 500 by Sept. 30, 2012. Rapid growth in the tank fleet–“based on continued robust spot-market demand and a steady pipeline of long-term contracts”–continues to be matched with solid financial results.

Management also closed a new and increased CAD100 million two-year extendible revolving credit facility, which will help it achieve its fleet-growth plans. Poseidon was also added to the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which will open the shares to a broader range of investors and investment funds.

The company ended the second quarter with a working capital surplus of CAD101.8 million. As noted in this month’s In Focus feature, Poseidon Concepts–currently yielding 7.3 percent after posting a 27.4 percent total return in US dollar terms thus far in 2012–is a buy for aggressive investors on a pullback to USD13.

ShawCor reported a 36 percent jump in quarterly profit on higher bookings and strong performance in its pipeline and pipe services segment. Second-quarter net income rose to CAD21.4 million, or CAD0.30 per share, from CAD15.7 million, or CAD0.21 per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 24 percent from a year ago to CAD326.9 million; on a sequential basis sales were up 5 percent from CAD312.3 million during the first three months of 2012.

Management declared a CAD0.10 per share third-quarter dividend payable Aug. 31 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 20; the shares will trade ex-dividend as of Aug. 16. ShawCor also paid CAD0.10 per share in the second quarter.

EBITDA in the second quarter of 2012 was CAD35 million, essentially unchanged from the prior year but CAD7.6 million below the first quarter of 2012 as a result of unfavorable changes in revenue mix plus costs incurred during the surprisingly quick start-up of the company’s operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

ShawCor’s new order backlog increased 11.5 percent from the beginning of the quarter to reach a record CAD749 million. The company’s backlog has more than doubled over the past 12 months as a result of the award of a number of significant new pipe-coating contracts.

Management expects revenue from ShawCor’s North American pipeline business will be consistent with first-half totals. It expects Latin American pipeline operations to accelerate in the third quarter, picking up on a steady recovery in revenue underway since the first half of 2011.

The company’s Europe, Middle East, Africa, Russia (EMAR) region experienced strong project revenue from the pipe-coating facilities in Orkanger, Norway, and Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, in the first half but sales at these two operations will decline modestly in the second half.

ShawCor’s Asia-Pacific operation is on schedule to commence full production at Pearl Energy in Thailand and Wheatstone in Australia gas supply trunk line pipeline projects in the third quarter and the Australia-based Ichthys gas export pipeline in the fourth quarter, and the company’s facilities in Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to be operating at record volume levels in the second half of 2012 with resulting strong operating margins.

Based on booked orders, management expects this level of activity to be sustained throughout 2013 and into 2014.

As for ShawCor’s Petrochemical and Industrial segment, the onset of recession in Europe and any deceleration of economic activity in North America will negatively impact revenue and profit due to the business’s exposure to automotive and industrial markets.

ShawCor, which is has generated a total return of nearly 27.7 percent in US dollar terms in 2012, starts off as a hold.

Tim Hortons, meanwhile, posted its biggest single-day drop on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) in 11 months after it reported that same-store sales grew at the slowest pace in three years during the second quarter.

Net income rose to CAD108.1 million, or CAD0.69 per share, from CAD95.5 million, or CAD0.58 per share, a year earlier. Total revenue rose 11.8 percent to CAD785.6 million. Same-store sales rose 1.8 percent in Canada in the three months ended Jul. 1, as customers spent more during each visit. In the US, management’s hope for growth, same-store sales rose 4.9 percent.

Domestic transaction count and same-store sales are key measures for Tim Hortons, as they indicate whether Canada’s dominant coffee chain has any more room to grow in its home market. Management noted during its conference call to discuss results that “the continuing challenging macroeconomic environment played a role in [its] rate of same-store sales growth in Canada placing the frequency of visits under slight pressure” and that “there was very little pricing benefit in the system in the Canadian segment during the quarter.”

Management also flagged new organization initiatives that it believes will further its long-term strategic focus on expanding its menu and service offerings, including new drink flavors such as raspberry lemonade and WiFi access in more than 2,000 Canadian stores, complemented by international expansion focused on the US.

System-wide sales grew by 6 percent during the second quarter on a constant currency basis, as overall product sales rose 13 percent to CAD563.8 million. Franchise revenue increased 8 percent to CAD221.8 million, boosted by an 18 percent jump in franchise fees to CAD22.8 million.

Management declared a CAD0.21 per share quarterly dividend payable Sept. 5 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 20. The shares will trade ex-dividend as of Aug. 16.

Tim Hortons, which despite the recent slide has posted a 6.4 percent total return in US dollar terms in 2012, is a hold.

Bay Street Beat

Although the market’s initial reaction to its second-quarter report was generally negative, Tim Hortons earned an upgrade to “outperform” from “market perform” at BMO Capital Markets on Aug. 9. Eight other analysts maintained their ratings on the company. Tim Hortons now has seven “buy” ratings, nine “holds” and one “sell” on Bay Street, based on Bloomberg’s standardization of investment-house recommendation-speak.

The average 12-month price target for the stock, gleaned from the 10 analysts who provide such a number with their advice, is CAD56, with a high of CAD62 and a low of CAD48.

ShawCor has a four-two-one buy-hold-sell line on Bay Street, as three analysts issued reactions to earnings but none made changes to their stances. The average 12-month price target among the analysts who cover the stock is CAD42.70. The low mark is CAD36, while the high side is CAD46.

All nine analysts who cover Poseidon reiterated their stances in the wake of the company’s second-quarter earnings report; all nine continue to rate the stock a “buy” according to the Bloomberg system. One house, EVA Dimensions, picked up coverage of the stock today, Aug. 10, with a “hold” rating. The average 12-month price target among the original nine is CAD19.50, with a low of CAD16 and a high of CAD25.

Here’s how Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings that have reported quarterly earnings in recent weeks stand with Bay Street as far as buy-hold-sell ratings are concerned, with the average price target in parentheses.

IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF) was the focus of the most analyst activity in the wake of its second-quarter earnings report, as the stock was downgraded at two houses. Stonecap Securities Inc cut the stock to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” and reduced its 12-month price target to CAD11.50 from CAD15. Canaccord Genuity Corp trimmed its rating to “sell” from “hold,” reducing its 12-month target to CAD8 from CAD11.

Desjardin Securities, meanwhile, raised its rating to “buy” from “hold” but cut its 12-month target for the stock price to CAD12.50 from CAD15.

Fellow Conservative Holding Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF) was cut to “hold” from “buy” at GMP Securities, which trimmed its price target to CAD14 from CAD16.

Also in the Conservative Holdings, Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF) was cut to “market perform” from “outperform” at FirstEnergy Capital. But the analyst on the case simultaneously boosted its 12-month price target from CAD30 to CAD31.

There were no substantive changes to Bay Street analyst advice for Aggressive Holdings in the aftermath of recently released quarterly earnings.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–5–1–2 (CAD34.43)
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–6–3–0 (CAD17.94)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–1–3–3 (CAD13.72)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–3–4–0 (CAD15.08)
  • Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–0–1–0 (CAD13.75)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–4–7–0 (CAD31.05)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–5–6–0 (CAD26.36)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–2–8–2 (CAD29.90)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–3–4–0 (CAD20.71)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D, OTC: DRETF)–6–2–0 (CAD40.70)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–7–2–2 (CAD12.70)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–4–8–1 (CAD11.27)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–2–4–1 (CAD12.79)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–6–2–1 (CAD49.81)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–6–5–1 (CAD30.90)
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–5–10–2 (CAD20.40)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–8–3–0 (CAD22.25)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–0–4–0 (CAD11.31)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–2–9–1 (CAD24.11)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–3–2–1 (CAD18.13)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–0–5–0 (CAD8)
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–14–5–1 (CAD46.38)
  • Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–2–2–1 (CAD8.50)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–8–1–0 (CAD16)
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–1–0–0 (CAD8)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–4–5–0 (CAD15.62)
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–16–5–0 (CAD16.74)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–11–1–2 (CAD24.75)
  • PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–3–10–1 (CAD9.56)

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