Buy Energy the Safe Way

Focused on steady, fee-generating assets but able to profit from rising commodity prices: That’s the common thread uniting the five master limited partnerships (MLP) that populate the Growth Portfolio.

Each had more than enough ballast to survive the catastrophic drop in energy prices over the past year. None skipped or even trimmed a dividend payment, despite a halving of oil prices and an 80 percent haircut for natural gas.

Two picks’ second quarter cash flows took especially hard hits at their more commodity-price sensitive operations. DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM) saw gathering volumes and processing margins drop sharply in the face of lower energy prices. Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) suffered a steep drop in natural gas midstream volumes, which offset a better performance in natural gas liquids (NGL).

Both MLPs, however, were able to make up the difference and then some at their fee-based operations. Energy Transfer’s completion of the Texas Independence Pipeline and newly inked contracts on its Tiger Pipeline with EnCana Corp (TSX: ECA, NYSE: ECA) and Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE: CKH) will continue to augment those steady revenues going forward.

Inergy LP’s (NSDQ: NRGY) propane distribution profits aren’t directly impacted by energy prices, as changes in costs are passed through in propane prices. But they are indirectly affected by falling prices for gas and heating oil, which compete for sales as well as drive costs. And a severe drop in economic growth can have a major negative impact on demand, particularly from commercial customers.

The good news is this particular MLP continues to generate steady cash flow from its propane business, even as it builds an asset base of liquefied propane gas (LPG) storage centers. Demand for LPG storage also depends heavily on demand, which is hurt by a sluggish economy. But Inergy’s most recently inked project was 600 percent oversubscribed.

In other words, it literally had to turn away five of every six potential customers that expressed interest. That not only speaks to the underlying merits of the project but it opens the door for much more capacity to be built in coming years, further filling Inergy’s coffers.

Teekay LNG Partners LP’s (NYSE: TGP) fleet of tankers to transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) will ultimately sink or sail on the prospects of the global trade of the fuel. That’s still stunted in the US, where all of the processing capacity at this point is for imports rather than exports. And exports from elsewhere in the world to the US are considerably less attractive this year, given the steep drop in conventional natural gas prices.

Nonetheless, the MLP boosted its distributable cash flow to $31.7 million from the $24.4 million in last year’s second quarter, thanks to cost controls and fully-financed construction of new ships. Teekay also benefited from the purchase of the Tangguh LNG carriers, from which revenue is locked in under long-term contracts.

That these four MLPs have performed well over the past year, despite these severe headwinds, is a testament to management’s skillful control of costs, leverage and risk. Over the next year, however, the wind is likely to be at their backs. The likely result: faster growth and almost certainly higher distributions.

The key is a recovery in natural gas prices this month that increasingly looks like it may have legs. After hitting a multi-year low of $2.409 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on September 4 gas has surged to almost $4.

That was in good part due to a short squeeze, as many traders bet heavily against gas prices the further they fell. With so many leaning in one direction, they were unprepared for a rebound. Those who haven’t gotten out have suffered huge losses.

Market history shows clearly that trading action like this can easily be reversed. And fundamentals for this market are still far from ideal for a bull run.

For example, gas inventories are still high thanks to an extremely mild summer and the sharpest drop in industrial energy use since the early 1950s.

Gas prices, however, are below production costs in many areas. That’s resulted in unprecedented shut-ins of existing wells and record cancellations and postponement of new drilling projects. Drilling rigs in service have dropped by more than 70 percent in Canada and 50 percent in the US over the past year.

The result is massive supply destruction that will take some time to reverse once natural gas demand returns to a more normal level. That means sharply higher gas prices, processing spreads and system throughput, all of which will benefit this quartet of MLPs.

The last couple weeks’ rebound in natural gas prices isn’t likely to show up in our picks’ third quarter results; gas prices have been falling for most of the period since June 30. Their fee-based businesses, however, have proven themselves much more than adequate for shoring up cash flows to protect distributions.

Meanwhile, because the news continues to be hopeful on the economy–particularly for industrial demand for energy–gas will continue to bounce and spur cash flows for our quartet’s more commodity-sensitive businesses.

In fact, if the action follows what we’ve seen the past few years for gas, the upside will be every bit as wild as the downside has been over the past year.

Of course, the biggest beneficiaries of a natural gas price recovery are the MLPs in the Aggressive Portfolio, especially those that produce energy such as Linn Energy (NSDQ: LINE).

But DCP, Energy Transfer, Inergy and Teekay will all see cash flows rise as their commodity price-sensitive operations reap the benefit. That’s why their MLP units have scored gains over the past couple weeks.

If you buy and hold them, you’ll get big dividends backed by steady, fee-based operations. But you also have the potential for substantial capital gains and dividend growth as commodity operations–which have proven their salt under some of the toughest industry conditions imaginable–begin to pick up profits.

Buy DCP Midstream Partners LP (up to 25), Energy Transfer Partners (45), Inergy LP (30) and Teekay LNG Partners LP (25).

Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund (NYSE: KYE) is a closed-end fund that holds a basket of first-rate MLPs as well as some high-yielding Canadian income trusts. Its current top holding is Kinder Morgan Management (NYSE: KMR), the traditional-dividend-paying alternative to the Conservative Portfolio’s Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP). It also owns fellow Conservative holding Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD).

On the other hand, Kayne Anderson also has Aggressive holding Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM) in its top 10 as well as shares of several energy producers. By definition a fund reduces risk by holding many different positions at once. But its value and dividend are only as conservative as what it holds. And this fund owns commodity-price-sensitive businesses as well as purely fee-driven ones.

That’s why we hold Kayne Anderson in the Growth Portfolio. Like the individual MLPs within, it straddles both worlds of MLP risk. It remains the closed-end MLP fund trading at the lowest discount to net asset value. That’s a major advantage over other MLP funds, which continue to trade at premiums of as much as 20 percent to the value of their assets. Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund remains our top choice for MLP investors who want a mutual fund, as long as it trades at 20 or lower.

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