On Rallies and Earnings

In addition to Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE: NRGM), whose earnings I detail in this month’s Best Buys feature, six other MLP Profits Portfolio Holdings have reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results. And, as has been the case since the mid-2009 founding of MLPP, continued growth in distributions had telegraphed the solid operating numbers of our picks.

That’s our primary criterion for continuing to recommend them. The only challenge is several are now selling above buy targets after their January surge.

Our advice is to be patient. Even the highest-priced will eventually be worth what they’re selling for now, as they continue to raise distributions. And if not they’ll slide once more below our targets. Either way, chasing makes no sense.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) enjoyed a record financial performance in 2012, generating distributable cash flow (DCF) of USD4.1 billion, or USD2.9 billion excluding the sale of non-core assets. Fourth-quarter DCF covered the payout by a hefty 1.5-to-1 margin.

Despite steep declines in prices of many natural gas liquids (NGL) last year, the company generated stable margins by controlling costs and successfully adding new assets. Fee-based natural gas processing volumes rose 15 percent from year earlier levels, and the MLP’s NGL pipelines and storage unit reported a 29 percent bump in gross operating margin.

Onshore natural gas pipelines enjoyed an 8 percent overall boost in operating margins, primarily riding the strength of Texas operations.

Onshore oil pipelines more than doubled margins on record volumes, primarily thanks the successful addition of new assets.

Results for the first quarter of 2013 should reveal a similar lift, due in part to the reversal of the Seaway pipeline connecting Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast.

Enterprise Products’ primary driver of growth going forward is capital spending. The company put USD2.9 billion of new projects into operation in 2012 and looks to finish off USD2.4 billion more in 2013, further boosting fee income.

There’s another USD4.8 billion underway for startup in 2014 and the first half of 2015. And virtually everything is supported by long-term contracts.

The vast diversification of Enterprise Products’ projects and revenue streams is a major advantage in an environment where some areas tend to underperform and others outperform. That’s a huge support for distribution growth, which looks set to come in between 6 percent and 7 percent in 2013. That will keep our buy target rising going forward.

For now, however, Enterprise Products Partners is a buy at USD55 or lower for investors who don’t already own it.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) and El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: EPB) have a common general partner (GP), Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE: KMI). As a result both MLPs announced earnings at the same time last month.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners’ DCF rose 8 percent for 2012. All five of the MLP’s business segments recorded higher profitability, including the Products Pipeline segment, where increases of 22 percent and 11 percent in NGL and ethanol/biofuels volumes, respectively, offset a 1.5 percent drop in refined products throughput.

That’s a clear demonstration of Kinder Morgan Energy’s diversification and reach. In addition, the natural gas segment saw an 11 percent increase in transportation volumes, in part due to greater demand for power generation. This division has USD2.7 billion in capital projects underway to keep that momentum going.

Meanwhile, the carbon dioxide operation–which provides CO2 for injection in oil fields to increase yields–enjoyed a 10 percent boost in volume. Export coal volumes were up 38 percent, belying global price and demand weakness that affected many sector companies. And the Canadian operations enjoyed a boost from increased capacity over its pipelines, 75 percent of which is under long-term contracts for at least 20 years.

Kinder Morgan Energy’s distribution growth accelerated in 2012 to 8 percent, and management is targeting at least 6 percent growth in 2013. The latter could prove conservative. The MLP continues to trade at a discount to rivals such as Enterprise Products due to overblown concerns about the GP’s incentive distribution rights (IDR).

But yielding nearly 6 percent, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners is a buy up to USD90 for those who don’t already own it.

IDRs have also been a concern for El Paso Pipeline Partners, reflected in a discounted unit price despite distribution growth of 20 percent the last 12 months. DCF rose 15 percent for 2012, providing a solid platform for meeting management’s target of 13 percent payout growth in 2013.

Driving El Paso Pipeline’s growth is asset drop-downs from Kinder Morgan Energy’s acquisition of its former GP El Paso Corp. Expansion at the Southern Natural Gas unit benefitted from a 42 percent jump in demand for natural gas in power generation. The MLP also stands to benefit from a prospective LNG facility at Elba Island, Georgia, assuming federal regulators sign off on it.

It’s possible that at some point we’ll see El Paso Pipeline Partners–with its market cap of USD8.8 billion–merged into much larger Kinder Morgan Energy Partners. Until then, however, the GP is committed to growing the MLP. That makes it a solid play for the long term as well as a potential takeover bet. The only problem is price. But El Paso Pipeline Partners is a buy on any dip to USD40 or lower.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP) also turned in record results in its fourth quarter. DCF surged 36.6 percent to USD179.4 million, covering the payout by a whopping 1.59-to-1 margin.

The key was successful asset additions. The company’s Petroleum Pipelines division recorded operating margin of USD193.4 million, a 28.8 percent jump from year-earlier levels. Energy Transportation volumes overall rose 10 percent, paced by a 54 percent jump in crude oil volumes, and even gasoline shipments increased 7 percent.

Magellan Midstream also benefitted from an 8.6 percent rate boost on its south Texas pipeline segments.

Petroleum Terminals enjoyed quarterly record results, with margins rising 11.8 percent. And the Ammonia Pipeline system–now a relatively minor piece of the enterprise–managed a very strong 30 percent boost in margins, enjoying both higher volume and rates. Ammonia is used primarily to make fertilizer, and current results testify to management’s persistence and ability to turn around an often underperforming asset.

In the energy midstream business, successful growth begets enhanced opportunities for expansion. And Magellan Midstream plans to spend another USD700 million on organic growth construction projects in 2013 to power future returns.

Financial guidance for 2013 is for DCF of USD570 million, up from USD539.8 million in 2012. That projection is entirely based on what’s locked in by projects completed last year and excludes any impact of commodity prices. It also doesn’t include any new projects or acquisitions and should easily support management’s target of 10 percent distribution growth.

The 3.1 percent distribution boost announced Jan. 22, 2013, pushes the payout 22.7 percent above last year’s tally. It’s also the 12th consecutive quarterly increase for Magellan Midstream. The only thing wrong with this Conservative Holding is price, as it now yields barely 4 percent as a Wall Street favorite.

But Magellan Midstream Partners is a buy on any dip to USD42 or lower.

Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP) enjoyed another steady quarter and also posted solid full-year results. Although cash available for distribution (CAD) was down slightly in the fourth quarter due to higher maintenance capital expenditures, the full-year figure was up 8 percent. Nevertheless, fourth-quarter CAD covered the payout by a solid 1.05-to-1 margin.

That was enough to spur the MLP’s 21st consecutive quarterly distribution increase on Jan. 28, 2013–which means management has boosted the payout every quarter since the initial public offering.

The current rate is 4.2 percent above the year-earlier tally, reflecting the steady growth of Spectra Energy Partners’ asset base.

That base is set to grow by another USD2 billion over the next couple of years, thanks to asset drop downs from rapidly expanding parent and general partner Spectra Energy Corp (NYSE: SE). The GP announced its own growth guidance last month, including a clear path for continued modest but reliable distribution growth at the partnership.

Spectra Energy Corp’s clear motivation is a continuing 60.5 percent ownership interest in Spectra Energy Partners as well as the GP interest.

And for partnership owners the benefit is a very reliable yield of nearly 6 percent coupled with annual growth of 4 percent.

Buy Spectra Energy Partners up to USD34 if you don’t already own it.

Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM) has been one of the most volatile MLP Profits Portfolio picks dating back to our initial recommendation in June 2009.

That’s primarily attributable to the nature of the shipping business, which continues to be plagued by an oversupply of ships due to delays in retiring older vessels.

Operationally, however, Navios Maritime remains effectively an island of stability in a sea of chaos. Fourth-quarter results were solid, owing to the long-term contracts enjoyed by its fleet and timely additions to assets. Operating surplus–the company’s primary measure of profitability–surged 73.2 percent. That’s at a time when the Baltic Dry Index, a key barometer of industry strength, actually hit a 20-year low.

A focus on newer, top-of-the-line ships is one key advantage for Navios Maritime. Another is conservative financial policies, as management has consistently applied cash balances to reduce indebtedness.

Loan prepayments made in December, for example, cut the company’s cash breakeven for 2013 by USD1,409 per day.

The company has restructured the policies that insure its charter-out contracts.

Nonetheless, it still enjoys solid protection as well as a remaining average life of 3.1 years on its existing contracts. With 87.6 percent of vessels contracted for 2013, re-contracting risk only becomes significant in 2014, when only about half of available days are already spoken for.

Charter-out rates, however, are well more than twice current spot, providing Navios Maritime with considerably more cushion than most enjoy.

A relapse into global recession would not help matters, regards the company’s efforts to re-contract. Eventually, inability to do that will have an impact on cash flow and the dividend.

On the other hand, management has considerable flexibility to buy and/or develop new vessels and the backing of a powerful parent. The fleet’s average age is just 6.2 years versus an industry average of 10. Debt-to-asset value on a charter-adjusted basis was reduced to 32.4 percent during the quarter.

There are some signs of better market conditions ahead. And fourth-quarter distribution coverage with the operating surplus was a very strong 1.96-to-1.

During Navios Maritime’s fourth-quarter conference call management affirmed its intention to continue paying out at a quarterly rate of USD0.4425 per share. Virtually all of that is considered tax-deferred return of capital. And because Navios Maritime is a C corporation rather than a standard MLP, no K-1 must be filed.

No one should own any investment yielding upward of 12 percent without the understanding the market–rightly or wrongly–expects a dividend cut. If this expectation proves off base we’ll get a hefty capital gain eventually as well as the huge cash disbursement. And it doesn’t take long for such a big dividend to add up, as our large return in Navios Maritime the past three-plus years makes clear. Buy Navios Maritime up to USD18 if you don’t already own it.

Here’s when to expect the rest of the MLP Profits Portfolio to report numbers. We’ve linked to discussions of results for those that have reported. We’ll have a full recap in the March issue.

  • Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL)–Feb. 8 (confirmed)
  • DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM)–Feb. 27 (estimate)
  • Eagle Rock Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EROC)–Feb. 25 (confirmed)
  • El Paso Energy Partners LP (NYSE: EPB)–February Portfolio Update
  • Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP)–Feb. 20 (confirmed)
  • Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD)–February Portfolio Update
  • Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL)–Feb. 15 (estimate)
  • Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE: NRGM)–February Best Buys
  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP)–February Portfolio Update
  • Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY)–Feb. 25 (confirmed)
  • Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE)–Feb. 21 (confirmed)
  • Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)–February Portfolio Update
  • Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: MCEP)–March 5 (confirmed)
  • Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM)–February Portfolio Update
  • Oiltanking Partners LP (NYSE: OILT)–March 6 (confirmed)
  • PVR Partners LP (NYSE: PVR)–Feb. 20 (confirmed)
  • Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE: RGP)–Feb. 20 (confirmed)
  • Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP)–February Portfolio Update
  • Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE: NGLS)–Feb. 14 (confirmed)
  • Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP)–Feb. 22 (estimate)
  • Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (NYSE: VNR)–March 1 (estimate)

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