Two Out, Three In

Coverage Changes

Progress Energy Resources Corp is now part of Malaysia’s national oil and gas company Petroliam Nasional Berhad, better known as Petronas. Shareholders should by now have received CAD22 per share in cash.

The acquisition of PRT Growing Services Ltd by a private capital firm has also been consummated, with PRT holders receiving CAD4.45 per share in cash. Both companies are now delisted from How They Rate.

New to coverage this month are Canadian Utilities Ltd (TSX: CU, OTC: CDUAF) under Electric Power, Exchange Income Corp (TSX: EIF, OTC: EIFZF) under Business Trusts and Leisureworld Senior Care Corp (TSX: LW, OTC: LWSCF) under Health Care.

All three are rated hold. I’ll evaluate them for upgrades as they report earnings over the next few weeks.

Advice Changes

Avalon Rare Metals Inc (TSX: AVL, NYSE: AVL)–To Hold from Buy @ 4. The rare earths firm faces make-or-break results from a feasibility study of its Nechalacho mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories sometime in the second quarter. Let current bets ride with this speculation.

Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–To Hold from Buy @ 10. Until there’s more clarity on the Canada Revenue Agency’s attempted claw-back of taxes from the company’s conversion to a corporation the wholesaler and distributor of food and non-food products is a hold.

Contrans Group Inc (TSX: CSS, OTC: CTFIF)–To Buy @ 10 from Hold. Plans to raise the distribution by 25 percent are a sign of strong health at this niche freight transportation provider, and takeover candidate.

Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–To Buy @ 14 from Hold. This well-managed company is dealing with oil-price differentials in the Bakken region by utilizing rail. That should enable it to generate sufficient cash flow in 2013 to pay its CAD0.09 per share monthly dividend and fund capital spending.

Genivar Inc (TSX: GNV, OTC: GNVUF)–To Buy @ 22 from Hold. The 7 percent yield seems solid as the engineering services firm continues to win and hold contracts.

IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–To Buy @ 8 from Hold. The lower dividend is conservative, and refinancing debt is no longer a concern. The share price also appears to have stabilized after a series of upgrades on Bay Street, and insiders have increased holding by 14.1 percent the past six months, a vote of confidence in the company’s long-run prospects.

New Flyer Industries Inc (TSX: NFI, OTC: NFYED)–To Hold from SELL. A CAD116 million strategic investment by Brazil-based bus body manufacturer Marcopolo SA (Brazil: POMO3) provides much-needed financial support, even as the company seems to be having better luck winning orders for new buses.

Pace Oil & Gas Ltd (TSX: PCE, OTC: PACEF)–To SELL from Hold. At least one large shareholder opposes the company’s merger with AvenEx Energy Corp (TSX: AVF, OTC: AVNDF) and Charger Energy Corp (TSX: CHX, OTC: SVWYF).

But given the oil and gas producer’s small size, exposure to price differentials and approaching debt maturities the effort will likely prove futile. And the post-merger entity will still be small and vulnerable.

Pengrowth Energy Corp (TSX: PGF, NYSE: PGH)–To Hold from SELL. There’s dividend risk here in 2013 despite management’s assurances. But a very low valuation counts for something with a company that’s still financially healthy.

Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–To Hold from SELL. Cutting back capital spending plans for 2013 can’t help but strengthen the dividend in a tough year, and this company arguably trades for less than 50 cents per dollar of reserves.

Primaris Retail REIT (TSX: PMZ-U, OTC: PMZEF)–To SELL from Hold. The retail property owner’s two suitors, H&R REIT (TSX: HR, OTC: HRUFF) and private capital firm KingSett Capital, have ended the bidding war by reaching a deal to divide ownership that includes RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF).

Primaris unitholders will have the choice of taking CAD28 per share in cash or 1.166 units of H&R. The cash price represents a 2 percent premium over Primaris’ current price. The stock exchange value is a slight discount.

As the cash portion is limited, the actual payout will be a mix. Barring a big move in H&R, the take will be roughly equal to Primaris’ current price, leaving no incentive to hold until close.

WestJet Airlines Ltd (TSX: WJA, OTC: WJAFF)–To Buy @ 22 from Hold. Another blow-the-doors-off quarter earns this company a much higher buy target, as does the accompanying 25 percent dividend increase.

Record capacity in January is a good sign there’s a lot more to come, though investors should take care that airlines are rarely if ever good long-term investments.

Ratings Changes

Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–To 3 from 4. The Canada Revenue Agency wants some claw-back on taxes from the company’s conversion to a corporation. The fallout should not affect efforts to grow or pay dividends, but the investigation does affect future earnings visibility until there’s a resolution.

Cominar REIT (TSX: CUF-U, OTC: CMLEF)–To 5 from 4. Longer-term earnings visibility improves with every accretive acquisition and debt refinancing this year and next should cut interest costs.

MEG Energy Corp (TSX: MEG, OTC: MEGEF)–To 2 from 1. The company’s development is still only in its infancy. But solid fourth quarter results provide some favorable visibility into the future and debt is low.

New Flyer Industries Inc (TSX: NFI, OTC: NFYED)–To 2 from 1. The CAD116 million strategic investment by Brazil-based bus body manufacturer Marcopolo SA (Brazil: POMO3) eliminates near-term financial risk and may eventually set the company on track for a return to growth.

Superior Plus Corp (TSX: SPB, OTC: SUUIF)–To 3 from 2. Management has eliminated near-term debt refinancing risk as a concern, and the payout ratio remains quite conservative.

Westshore Terminals Investment Corp (TSX; WTE, OTC: WTSHF)–To 3 from 4. The financial fallout from a ship crash into the company’s port facilities was worse than initially stated. Management won’t pay a dividend until repair costs are fully known, which likely means no payout until July.

Safety Ratings

The core of my selection process is the six-point CE Safety Rating System, which awards one point for each of the following. A rating of “6” is the safest:

  • Payout Ratio–A ratio below our proprietary industry baseline.
  • Earnings Visibility–Earnings are predictable enough to forecast a payout ratio below our proprietary industry baseline.
  • Debt-to-Assets Ratio–A ratio below our proprietary industry baseline.
  • Short-Term Debt Ratio–Debt due in next two years is less than 10 percent of market capitalization.
  • Business Stability–Companies that can sustain revenues during recessions are favored over more cyclical ones.
  • Dividend History–No dividend cuts over the preceding five years.

Stock Talk

David Samuels

David Samuels

Long time Conservative Holding Atlantic Power sells its Florida power plants and takes a dive. Still quite a bit of concern as to an upcoming dividend cut and yet not a word of Roger Conrad’s perspective in this issue. Surprising and disappointing.

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