An Income Trust Renaissance

A little more than six years after Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty effectively killed the structure, a new breed of income trust has emerged to satisfy investor hunger for yield.

Crius Energy Trust (TSX: KWH-U, OTC: None) completed its initial public offering (IPO) on Nov. 13, 2012, joining Eagle Energy Trust (TSX: EGL-U, OTC: ENYTF), Parallel Energy Trust (TSX: PLT-U, OTC: PEYTF) and Argent Energy Trust (TSX: AET-U, OTC: ANGYF) as the “four horsemen” of a renewed era.

These new trusts are almost identical in structure to the old income funds. A key difference is that they hold only foreign assets, which keeps them tax-efficient and within the bounds of Canadian law. These are “non-SIFT” trusts.

Crius Energy paid an initial distribution of CAD0.1326 on Jan. 15, 2013, and declared a second of CAD0.0833 on Jan. 22, payable Feb. 15 to shareholders of record as of Jan. 31. The indicated yield on the stock is 10 percent as of this writing.

Crius is the first non-oil-and-gas trust of this new breed. It holds electricity and natural gas marketing and retailing assets. Headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, the trust’s operating units serves more than 400,000 residential and commercial customers in 12 states and the District of Columbia.

Its “brands” include Viridian Energy, Cincinnati Bell Energy, FairPoint Energy and Public Power. FTR Energy Services launched in the fall of 2012. Crius describes itself as “one of the largest independent energy suppliers in the United States and a market leader in the growing deregulated energy sector.”

Three analysts currently cover the stock, and all three rate it a “buy.” The stock traded as high as CAD10.06 on Jan. 24, bouncing off a low of CAD9 on Dec. 11, 2012. The average 12-month target price for these three analysts is CAD11. As of this writing the units are priced precisely at the CAD10 initial offering price.

Eagle Energy listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) on Nov. 24, 2010. The current yield is 13.4 percent. The trust paid an initial distribution of CAD0.1064 on Jan. 17, 2011, and has paid CAD0.0875 each month since then.

Eagle Energy’s assets include 55 horizontal wells in the Salt Flat Field in South Central Texas and a 92.5 percent working interest in approximately 3,175 (2,937 net) acres of land in the Permian Basin, also in Texas. The Permian assets, acquired last May, consist of 31 (28.4 net) producing wells and overriding royalty interests on 23 unrelated wells.

Eagle’s current working interest production is 3,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).

The trust hit its 2012 exit production guidance, and management maintained a full-year forecast of approximately 2,700 boe/d, funds flow from operations of approximately CAD37 million, a basic payout ratio of approximately 70 percent, average operating costs of approximately USD15 per barrel of oil equivalent, capital expenditures of approximately CAD43 million and a 2012 exit debt-to-trailing cash flow ratio of approximately 1.0 times.

The units have traded as high as CAD12 on a closing basis, on Mar. 22, 2011, and as low as CAD7.03, on Dec. 11, 2012. As of this writing Eagle is trading at CAD7.86. Eagle Energy is rated “buy” by two analysts and “hold” by four more. There are no “sell” recommendations. The average 12-month target price is CAD9.70.

Parallel Energy debuted on the TSX on April 21, 2011. The trust has already established a rather choppy distribution history after making an initial payment of CAD0.10 on June 15, 2011. Parallel made monthly distributions of CAD0.075 from July 2011 through April 2012. Management bumped the payout to CAD0.08 for May 2012, a level it held through December 2012.

A little more than two weeks after declaring what would be its last CAD0.08 distribution management declared its first cut, effective with the January 2013 payment. The trust paid CAD0.05 last month and will do so again on Feb. 22.

Parallel also met its 2012 exit production target. The trust operates across four areas in North Texas and Oklahoma. Parallel owns 100 percent of its West Panhandle assets, which are located in Carson, Hutchinson, Moore, Potter and Roberts counties of North Texas and it holds a 20 percent interest in a Mississippian Lime play located in Garfield County, Oklahoma.

Parallel’s West Panhandle assets are located in the Greater Panhandle/Hugoton Gas Field, the largest conventional gas field in North America.

Parallel’s West Panhandle acreage consists of over 290 producing wells and includes exploitation and development opportunities.

Based on field data, Parallel’s production averaged approximately 7,200 boe/d between late October, when normal operations resumed in the Carson area, and the end of the third week in December.

During the fourth quarter of 2012, Parallel drilled, completed and placed on production seven wells in the Carson field. The average 30-day initial production rate of the seven wells was approximately 60 boe/d, two times the rate management forecast for its 2013 drilling program.

Parallel units have been in steady decline since the trust’s IPO. The price peaked at CAD10.98 on April 29, 2011, but is now just off a low of CAD3.83 established Dec. 11, 2012. All five analysts who cover Parallel rate the units “hold,” with an average 12-month target price of CAD5.13.

Argent Energy is just a couple months older than Crius, having listed on the TSX on Aug. 10, 2012. The trust made an initial distribution of CAD0.0621 in September 2012 and has followed up with payments of CAD0.0875 in October, November, December and January. On Jan. 17 management declared another payment of CAD0.0875 to be made Feb. 25 to shareholders of record as of Jan. 31.

Argent owns, operates and manages oil and gas properties located primarily in South Texas and Oklahoma, with drilling prospects focused in the Eagle Ford, Austin Chalk and Wilcox formations. The trust exited the year at approximately 3,700 boe/d, excluding the Wapiti acquisition, about 100 boe/d above the year-end guidance target of 3,500 to 3,600 boe/d.

Management forecast a 2013 average production rate of approximately 5,500 to 5,600 boe/d, comprising 65 percent oil, 7 percent natural gas liquids (NGLs) and 28 percent natural gas. Operating costs per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) are expected to average between USD11 and USD12 per boe, resulting in an average operating cash flow netback of approximately USD44 per boe. Realized oil netbacks are over USD70 per boe.

Argent hit a high of CAD10.62 on Oct. 1, 2012, but retreated to CAD8.99 by Nov. 15. As of this writing the units are changing hands at CAD10.05 per. Three analysts rate the energy trust a “buy,” two rate it “hold” and zero rate it “sell.” The average 12-month price target is CAD11.50.

Bay Street Beat

Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) was cut to “sector underperform” from “sector perform” by CIBC World Markets on Jan. 9. On Feb. 7, after the company announced a 32 percent reduction in its monthly dividend effective with the April 30 payment, CIBC reduced its 12-month target price for the stock to CAD8 from CAD9.50.

RBC Capital Markets reiterated its “sector perform” rating as well as its CAD10 12-month forecast price following management’s announcement of Just Energy’s new dividend rate.

National Bank Financial, which cut the stock to “underperform” from “sector perform” in November 2012 and reduced its 12-month target price from CAD10 to CAD8, reiterated its “underperform” recommendation and held to its CD8 forecast on Feb. 7.

EVA Dimensions initiated coverage of the stock in mid-January with an “underweight” recommendation. EVA Dimensions doesn’t provide 12-month target price forecasts.

The stock’s current line on Bay Street is one “buy,” two “holds” and three “sells.” As of Friday morning, Feb. 8, TD Securities, which last updated its recommendation in November 2012, rates the stock a “buy” and has a CAD13 12-month target price forecast.

ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF) is again being covered by RBC Capital Markets, which dropped the stock from its roster in January. ARC is rated “outperform” by RBC, with a CAD27 12-month target price.

BMO Capital Markets raised its forecast price to CAD27 from CAD28 after ARC reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 earnings while reiterating its “outperform” recommendation.

Alta Corp Capital Inc still rates the stock “sector perform” but raised its target to CAD26 from CAD25. EVA Dimensions “upgraded” the stock from “sell” to “underweight.”

Barclays raised ARC from “equalweight” to “overweight” in January but reduced its 12-month target price from CAD28 to CAD26. Following the company’s earnings announcement the firm reiterated its “overweight” recommendation as well as its target price.

Veritas Investment Research Co raised its target price to CAD26 from CAD25 and kept its “buy” rating. National Bank Financial continues to rate the stock “outperform” but lifted its target from CAD26 to CAD27. TD Securities kept its “buy” rating and boosted its target to CAD27 from CAD26.

Canaccord Genuity Corp still rates the stock “buy” but now forecasts a price of CAD27.50 a year from now, up from CAD26.50. Salman Partners maintained its “hold” rating but raised its 12-month target price to CAD25 from CAD24. Macquarie is still “neutral” on the stock but increased its target to CAD26.25 from CAD25.

CIBC World Markets maintained its “sector outperform” recommendation, though it raised its 12-month target price to CAD28 from CAD27. Raymond James reiterated its “market perform” rating but raised its target to CAD24.50 from CAD24.

Credit Suisse raised ARC to “outperform” from “neutral” in January and reiterated the recommendation following the earnings release. The firm did boost its target price from CAD28 to CAD29.

Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR) has seen more post-earnings release Bay Street reaction. Stifel Nicolaus cut its rating to “hold” from “buy” and removed its 12-month target price forecast from its recommendation.

Credit Suisse maintained its “neutral” rating but raised its price forecast from CAD21 to CAD22. National Bank Financial reiterated its “sector perform” rating but raised its 12-month target price for Shaw to CAD23 from CAD22.50. Byron Capital Markets still rates the stock “hold” but thinks it’ll be priced at CAD23.75 a year from now, up from CAD23.

Veritas Investment Research Co boosted its 12-month target price twice–from CAD20 to CAD21 and then from CAD21 to CAD22–but maintained its “sell” rating on the stock. Macquarie is still “neutral” on the stock but raised its forecast from CAD19 to CAD21 on Jan. 10 and then to CAD22 on Jan. 15.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its “neutral” stance but boosted its 12-month target price from CAD20 to CAD21.

CIBC World Markets twice reiterated its “sector outperform” recommendation in the aftermath of Shaw’s earnings announcement, though the second time the firm raised its 12-month target price to CAD26 from CAD23. Scotia Capital maintained its “sector outperform” rating and boosted its forecast price twice, from CAD24 to CAD25 on Jan. 9 and then to CAD26 on Jan. 28.

TD Securities still rates the stock a “buy” but now forecasts a price of CAD28, up from CAD26, a year from now. Desjardins Securities thinks Shaw a “hold” but raised its 12-month target price from CAD21.50 to CAD23 and again to CAD23.50 during the past month.

RBC Capital Markets still rates the stock “sector perform” but raised its 12-month target price from CAD22 to CAD23.

AltaGas Ltd’s (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF) 12-month price target boosted from CAD36 to CAD40 at TD Securities. The stock remains an “action list buy.” CIBC World Markets lifted its target to CAD37.50 from CAD35 in maintaining its “sector outperform” rating on the stock.

Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT) was cut to “underperform” from “market perform” by BMO Capital Markets, but its 12-month price target was boosted from CAD11.50 to CAD12. RBC Capital Markets reiterated its “underperform” rating but sliced its 12-month forecast to CAD11 from CAD12. Desjardins Securities reiterated its “buy” rating and held its 12-month target at CAD16.

Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF) was cut to “sector underperform” from “sector perform” by Scotia Capital and its 12-month price target was reduced to CA13 from CAD14. Raymond James cut its rating to “market perform” from “outperform” and its 12-month price target from CAD16 to CAD15.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF) was raised to “buy” from “hold” by Stifel Nicolaus with an initial 12-month price target of CAD33.50.

Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF) was rated “buy” at Dundee Securities with an initial 12-month price forecast of CAD26.50 in the Bay Street firm’s first report on the company.

Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF) was raised to “overweight” from “hold” at EVA Dimensions, which doesn’t provide 12-month price targets with its recommendations. The movie theater operator also earned an upgrade to “outperform” from “sector perform” from National Bank Financial along with an increase in its 12-month price target from CAD28.50 to CAD36.

Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF) earned an increase in its 12-month price target at National Bank Financial, from CAD22 to CAD23. The recommendation remains “sector perform.” Scotia Capital, which still rates the stock “outperform,” boosted its forecast to CAD24 from CAD23.

Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF) is now being covered again by RBC Capital Markets, which had dropped the stock from its universe in January 2011. RBC rates the stock “outperform” with a CAD43 12-month target price.

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF) was raised to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” by CIBC World Markets, with a new 12-month target price of CAD11.50, up from CAD11. EVA Dimensions picked up coverage of the stock with an initial “sell” rating.

Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF) earned an increase in its 12-month target price forecast from RBC Capital Markets from CAD53 to CAD56. RBC still rates the stock “outperform.” National Bank Financial raised its price forecast to CAD59 from CAD54 and reiterated its “outperform” recommendation.

Dundee Securities initiated coverage of Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF) with a “buy” recommendation and a 12-month target price of CAD34.50.

RBC Capital Markets reiterated its “sector perform” rating on Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA) but boosted its 12-month price forecast to CAD30 from CAD29. National Bank Financial boosted its price prediction to CAD34 from CAD32.50 but still rates Pembina “outperform.”

EVA Dimensions initiated coverage of Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB) with a “sell” recommendation.

Scotia Capital boosted its 12-month target price for TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF) from CAD22.50 to CAD24.50 while maintaining its “sector outperform” rating. Cormark Securities still rates the stock “market perform” but raised its price forecast twice in January, from CAD18 to CAD20.50 on Jan. 15 and then to CAD21.50 on Jan. 18.

Laurentian Bank Securities reiterated its “buy” rating but lifted its price forecast to CAD25 from CAD22. CIBC World Markets maintained its “sector outperform” rating but raised its 12-month target price to CAD24.50 from CAD21 and then to CAD26.

National Bank Financial also made two price-forecast moves, from CAD20.50 to CAD25 on Jan. 14 and then to CAD26 on Jan.17. The recommendation remains “outperform.”

Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF) is still a “hold” at TD Securities but the firm raised its 12-month target price for the stock to CAD15 from CAD13.

Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) was cut to “hold” from “buy” at Laurentian Bank Securities, but the 12-month target price was lifted from CAD34 to CAD36.50.

National Bank Financial upgraded Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a steady CAD8.50 12-month target price. TD Securities cut the stock to “hold” from “buy” and reduced its forecast price to CAD8.50 from CAD9.50.

Desjardins Securities downgraded Colabor to “sell” from “hold” on Jan. 28, at the same time trimming its 12-month target price from CAD8.50 to CAD8. On Feb. 5 Desjardins upgraded the stock back to “hold,” maintaining the CAD8 target.

Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF) earned an upgrade from “market perform” from “outperform” at Raymond James, though the firm maintained its CAD44 target price.

EVA Dimensions raised Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF) to “hold” from “underweight.” National Bank Financial, which rates the stock “outperform,” boosted its 12-month target price to CAD19 from CAD17. Mackie Research Capital Corp raised its target to CAD18.90 from CAD17.80 while maintaining a “buy” recommendation.

PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF) was downgraded to “hold” from “overweight” by EVA Dimensions, and Stifel Nicolaus cut its recommendation to “sell” from “hold.” Neither firm provided a 12-month target price.

RBC Capital Markets reduced the stock to “sector perform” from “outperform,” cutting its 12-month target price from CAD16 to CAD11.50 in the process. Credit Suisse cut PetroBakken to “neutral” from “outperform,” reducing its target to CAD11 from CAD17.

Spin-Off Research upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” with a steady CAD12 12-month target price.

GMP Capital initiated coverage of Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) with a “buy” recommendation and a 12-month target price of CAD28.

Here’s how the CE Portfolio stacks up on Bay Street early in the reporting period for fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results.

The number of analyst “buy,” “hold” and “sell” ratings for each company are shown, followed by the average 12-month price target among the analysts that provide such guidance.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–6–1–2 (CAD38.90)
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–6–3–0 (CAD17.69)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–1–2–5 (CAD11.91)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–1–5–1 (CAD14.25)
  • Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–0–1–0 (CAD13.50)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–6–5–0 (CAD32.59)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–9–3–0 (CAD26.61)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–8–5–0 (CAD34.00)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–3–5–0 (CAD22.90)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–5–2–0 (CAD41.50)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–4–2–0 (CAD11.00)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–5–5–1 (CAD11.61)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–1–2–3 (CAD9.80)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–7–2–1 (CAD54.71)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–4–6–1 (CAD33.99)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–8–4–1 (CAD31.68)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–3–7–0 (CAD30.02)
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–3–13–2 (CAD23.25)
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–2–2–1 (CAD7.16)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–9–1–0 (CAD24.33)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–1–2–1 (CAD13.63)
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–2–7–1 (CAD33.25)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–12–7–1 (CAD26.63)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–2–4–0 (CAD17.63)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–1–4–0 (CAD8.30)
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–18–3–1 (CAD45.76)
  • Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–2–2–1 (CAD8.00)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–1–9–0 (CAD7.65)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–9–1–0 (CAD18.48)
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–1–0–0 (CAD8.00)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–4–5–0 (CAD20.00)
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–9–11–2 (CAD13.11)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–12–4–2 (CAD27.67)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–12–5–1 (CAD55.50)
  • Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–3–7–0 (CAD46.00)

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