As we enter 2018, the indicators haven’t been showing much activity. If you averaged the readings from all our forecasters, you’d get a number close to zero. Not very exciting. And there would be very little variability. It’s not a question of big swings in one direction canceling out big… Read More

In recent days, two major economic events, the Fed meeting and the long- anticipated passage by Congress of tax legislation, have come and gone. It’s striking how quietly and unemotionally the markets have responded. A useful way to look at this serenity is through VIX. This ratio measures market volatility… Read More

Thank goodness for a case of no surprises. Today’s quarter-percentage-point hike in the Fed funds rate was expected. So was the Fed’s projecting three more rate increases in 2018. The commentary, too, held no surprises, essentially reprising prior comments. For one, the Fed expects continued strength in the labor market. Read More

The markets seem somewhat out of whack. That can mean unusual forces are at work, and these tend to be hard to quantify. For example, the yield curve – the difference between long- and short-term rates – has been flattening, which should hurt banks. Yet financial stocks have been strong. Read More