Patrick Numbers Good, But Not Good Enough

Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI) is down 10% since supplier Cree announced a dreadful number on Oct. 18. Cree and Acuity’s stocks often trade in tandem which makes little sense. Although both are involved in the LED lighting industry, Cree is primarily a supplier to Acuity, not a competitor. So when Cree moans about lower LED bulb pricing, this is good news for Acuity, who buys those bulbs and bundles them into high tech lighting solutions for its corporate customers. Cree has unsuccessfully been trying to break into the total lighting solutions market but lacks the software and expertise that Acuity has built up over years. On Oct. 31, Wells Fargo upgraded Acuity to outperform, noting that 2017 estimates are too low. We think the drop offers subscribers a great buying opportunity.

Brunswick (NYSE: BC) reported third quarter earnings on Oct. 27. Despite meeting analysts’ estimates and increasing the low end of expectations for the year, the stock dropped 7%. Analysts focused on management’s comment that global boat unit demand would be at the lower end of the 3% to 5% range this year. The company is seeing weaker-than-expected demand from international markets. Although this guidance for boat growth does not change estimates materially, investors in Brunswick are hypersensitive to demand trends for boats.

That said, the company is on track for earnings for this year and next. The balance sheet is in good shape with receivables from customers flat from last year and inventories down a bit. Both of these metrics illustrate a healthy customer base. I expect the stock to rebound as I don’t see a material change in the trends and estimates have held firm at $3.45 for this year and $4.00 for 2017.

Patrick Industries (NSDQ: PATK) reported 79c for third quarter, 3c higher than estimates. Revenue grew 42% and beat estimates by $24 million. The stock dropped, most likely because investors have become accustomed to double-digit earnings’ beats. The quarter would have been higher but the company bumped into higher labor expenses as it worked around the clock to satisfy robust demand. Management held bullish on RV demand trends.

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